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Maria
09-19-2017, 06:47 PM
Post: #21
RE: Maria
909...

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
700 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...700 PM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA STILL
STRENGTHENING...

Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased
to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on
data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84).

A wind gust to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported in the
eastern portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 64.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brown

NNNN
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09-19-2017, 08:37 PM
Post: #22
RE: Maria
Winds around 195mph now

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09-19-2017, 09:48 PM
Post: #23
RE: Maria
11pm

Quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Since the previous advisory, WSR-88D radar data from San Juan
Puerto Rico has shown the development of concentric eyewalls and
a double-wind maximum. This has led to an increase in the size of
the 50- and 64-kt wind radii. An earlier Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 157 kt
and a few SFMR winds of 149-152 kt in the small inner eyewall
between 2200 and 0000 UTC this evening. Based on these data, the
initial wind speed was increased to 150 kt. The minimum pressure
estimated from earlier dropsonde data is 909 mb, which is the tenth
lowest minimum pressure recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane.
Since the outer eyewall has become better defined and the winds are
increasing within the outer eyewall, it is likely that Maria's
intensification will finally cease. However, Maria is expected to
remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane until landfall in
Puerto Rico early Wednesday. The passage of the core over Puerto
Rico should cause some weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a
major hurricane for several more days. Increasing shear and cooler
waters over the western Atlantic in the wake of hurricanes Irma and
Jose will likely lead to additional weakening late in the period.

Maria is moving between west-northwest and northwest at about 9 kt.
A weak ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the
hurricane on this general heading over the next couple of days.
This track will bring the center of Maria over Puerto Rico and just
north of the eastern Dominican Republic over the next day or so.
After that time, a break in the ridge should cause Maria to turn
north-northwestward, then northward by late in the week. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 72 hours, yielding fairly high
confidence in the track forecast through that time. There is some
increase in the spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the GFS
and HWRF farther west and faster, while the ECMWF is along the
eastern edge of the guidance and slow. For now, the NHC track
forecast is between the various consensus models at 96 and 120 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core will pass near or over St. Croix within the next
few hours and will approach the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico
early Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts to portions of those islands. Everyone in these
areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the remainder of the
Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,
where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall.

4. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions
on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 17.3N 64.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 18.9N 67.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 20.9N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 26.2N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 29.5N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

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09-19-2017, 09:49 PM
Post: #24
RE: Maria
[Image: 235857_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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09-20-2017, 05:21 AM
Post: #25
RE: Maria
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF VIEQUES
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on
the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from
10 n mi to 30 n mi. This has likely contributed to some weakening,
and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the
intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range.
Although there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria
remains an extremely dangerous hurricane. Some weakening is
likely while the system crosses Puerto Rico. Later in the forecast
period, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further
weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful
hurricane for the next 5 days. The official intensity forecast is
near or a little above the model consensus.

Maria continues to move between west-northwest and northwest at
about 9 kt. The flow on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane on this
general heading over the next couple of days. This track will bring
the center of Maria across Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern
Dominican Republic over the next day or so. After that time a
break in the ridge, partially associated with Tropical Storm Jose,
should cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by
the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered through 72 hours, giving fairly high confidence in the
track forecast through that time. There is some increase in the
spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the latest ECMWF
prediction near the western edge of the guidance envelope but with
all of the reliable models well offshore of the southeast U.S. at
the end of the period. The official forecast is very close to the
latest FSU Superensemble track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core will make landfall over Puerto Rico within the
next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts to the island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should
follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening
flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the Virgin Islands,
the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected
to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 17.9N 65.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 18.6N 66.7W 125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 21.5N 70.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 24.2N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 27.3N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 30.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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09-20-2017, 09:55 AM
Post: #26
RE: Maria
10AM
Quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

The last radar image from the San Juan WSR-88D was received at 0950
UTC when Maria's eye was located only about 5 n mi off the
southeastern coast of Puerto Rico. Subsequent 1-minute imagery from
the GOES-16 satellite, as well as surface observations, indicate
that the eye made landfall a little south of Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto
Rico, around 1015 UTC. Now that the center is moving over the
mountainous terrain of the island, the eye has become cloud filled,
and the infrared satellite presentation has degraded. Without radar
velocity data, the initial intensity is incredibly uncertain, but my
best guess is 120 kt based on a typical inland decay rate. Maria's
center is expected to move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico
soon, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to intercept the center early this afternoon and provide a better
estimate of how much Maria has weakened.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/10 kt. This
northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours,
followed by a turn toward the north by days 4 and 5, while Maria
moves between a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda and a
broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into
the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered this
cycle, and there were no significant changes made to the NHC
forecast track.

Once Maria moves off the coast of Puerto Rico, it will take some
time for the structure to reorganize over the warm waters of the
Atlantic Ocean. However, the shear is expected to be less than 10
kt for the next 24-36 hours, and Maria has an opportunity to
restrengthen a bit over that time period. After 36 hours, a gradual
increase in shear is likely to lead to a commensurate gradual
decrease in the hurricane's intensity through the end of the
forecast period. Since the SHIPS model, in particular, responds to
the favorable conditions for intensification, the NHC intensity
forecast lies just above the intensity consensus through much of the
forecast period.

Since we don't have radar imagery from San Juan, and the eye has
become cloud filled in satellite imagery, the hourly position
updates are being discontinued.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is moving over Puerto Rico, with life-threatening
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts continuing over the
island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local
officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and
rainfall. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Virgin
Islands, but conditions should gradually improve there later today.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 18.4N 66.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
12H 21/0000Z 19.2N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.2N 70.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.4N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 28.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 31.5N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$

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09-20-2017, 01:12 PM
Post: #27
RE: Maria
Winds down to 115mph

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09-20-2017, 01:23 PM
Post: #28
RE: Maria
Does Maria become an eastern seaboard storm? How does the next week shape up?
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09-20-2017, 01:34 PM
Post: #29
RE: Maria
(09-20-2017 01:23 PM)GSB Wrote:  Does Maria become an eastern seaboard storm? How does the next week shape up?
Here's the GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...=mslpaNorm

Here's the ECMWF (Euro) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...=mslpaNorm

Here's the CMC https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...=mslpaNorm

Your pick! LOL

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09-20-2017, 05:34 PM
Post: #30
RE: Maria
5pm
Quote: urricane Maria Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft found that Maria's
center moved off the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico just before
1800 UTC, but the hurricane appears to have taken quite a hit from
the high mountains of the island. The aircraft measured a maximum
flight-level wind of 106 kt to the east of the center and SFMR
surface winds as high as 91 kt. The initial intensity is therefore
set to 95 kt. The central pressure has also risen considerably, and
the latest report from the airplane is 957 mb.

Maria may have taken a temporary jog west-northwestward across
Puerto Rico, likely due to topographic effects, but the longer-term
motion remains northwestward, or 305/10 kt. Maria should maintain
a northwestward motion for the next 36 hours while it remains on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high over the western
Atlantic. After 36 hours, Maria is expected to turn northward
between the high and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm
Jose southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The updated track
guidance remains in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the
overall guidance envelope has shifted a bit eastward on this cycle.
The new NHC forecast is therefore nudged a little east of the
previous forecast toward the various consensus aids.

It may take some time for Maria's structure to reorganize itself
now that it is back over water. Although the intensity models are
not all that enthusiastic about strengthening, the environment
looks conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast lies at
the upper bound of the guidance, closest to the HWRF solution. It
would not be surprising, however, if Maria eventually strengthens
more than shown here. Some weakening is expected by days 4 and 5
due to increased shear, as well as Maria possibly moving over the
cold wake of Tropical Storm Jose to the east of the Carolinas.

We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve
mission for their incredible service today. After beginning their
mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew
went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then
heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first
moved back off the coast. The data collected by the crew was
incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and
structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for
their effort.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto
Rico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should subside
through early Thursday. However, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the
island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Everyone in
Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to
avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 18.8N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 25.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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