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LEE
09-15-2017, 06:59 AM (This post was last modified: 09-17-2017 07:22 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
LEE
T.D. 14 formed overnight.

Quote:000
WTNT44 KNHC 150850
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

The cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized
several hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time,
the structure has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers suggest that
the winds are still 30 kt. Currently, the cyclone is embedded
within a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast
calls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days. However,
the global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high
shear over the cyclone by day 4. This should result in weakening as
indicated in the forecast.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is
moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. The depression is
being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The same
trough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the
subtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the
west-northwest beyond 3 days. The NHC track is very close to HFIP
corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These
two models have been performing very well so far this season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 10.6N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Image: 085307_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

[Image: storm_14.gif]

AARoads
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09-18-2017, 10:10 AM
Post: #2
RE: LEE
Such a short lived storm, probably shouldn't have even been named.

Quote: ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...LEE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 40.6W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 40.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is
expected to occur tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected, and Lee is forecast to degenerate into
a remnant low on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

AARoads
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09-29-2017, 07:46 AM
Post: #3
RE: LEE
Ended up proving me wrong, reforming, and then spiraling into a major hurricane for a while. Now it and Maria are almost converging over the far north Atlantic while both slingshotting east.

[Image: 085639_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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