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Minor activity in Gulf
09-03-2017, 01:12 PM
Post: #1
Minor activity in Gulf
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the
wave axis. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


2. A trough of low pressure, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extent from the Yucatan Peninsula westward into the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for
significant development as the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

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09-03-2017, 07:02 PM
Post: #2
RE: Minor activity in Gulf
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form toward the end of the week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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09-03-2017, 09:42 PM
Post: #3
RE: Minor activity in Gulf
Henson for JM


Quote: Gulf of Mexico disturbance not expected to develop


Bob Henson · September 3, 2017, 22:29

A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized heavy thunderstorms. SSTs are very warm, but wind shear is moderate to high, 10 – 25 knots, and none of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop the system over the next five days. About 40% of the 50 members of the 0Z Sunday European model ensemble developed the system, and about 10% of the GFS ensemble members did so. These model runs generally kept the system bottled up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 2 pm EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%.
.
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09-04-2017, 06:43 AM
Post: #4
RE: Minor activity in Gulf
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
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