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HURRICANE JOSE
08-31-2017, 02:42 PM (This post was last modified: 09-06-2017 04:42 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #1
HURRICANE JOSE
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Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Corrected system order

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Harvey, located over southeastern Arkansas.

1. A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is moving westward
at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for some development over the weekend while the system
moves well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range, and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this potential system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KWNH
and under AWIPS header TCPAT4.

Forecaster Blake

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08-31-2017, 07:50 PM
Post: #2
RE: The next Cape Verde
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Harvey, located over northern Mississippi.

1. A tropical wave emerging over the far eastern Atlantic is moving
westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development over the weekend and early
next week while the system moves well to the south and southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend, however, environmental conditions are
expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by
that time. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coasts are
encouraged to consult products from their local NWS Forecast Office
for more information about impacts from any non-tropical weather
systems.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KWNH
and under AWIPS header TCPAT4.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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09-01-2017, 06:52 AM
Post: #3
RE: The next Cape Verde
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Harvey, located over Tennessee.

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean off
the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
after the weekend while it moves westward at 15 mph over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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09-01-2017, 01:10 PM
Post: #4
RE: The next Cape Verde
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Harvey, located over Tennessee.

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean off
the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
after the weekend while it moves westward at 15 mph over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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09-01-2017, 07:04 PM
Post: #5
RE: The next Cape Verde
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Harvey, located over Kentucky.

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development in a few days, and this system could become a tropical
depression early next week while it moves westward at 15 mph over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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09-02-2017, 07:03 AM
Post: #6
RE: The next Cape Verde
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09-02-2017, 12:45 PM (This post was last modified: 09-02-2017 12:51 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #7
RE: The next Cape Verde
JM


Quote: New tropical depression possible in the central Atlantic



Dr. Jeff Masters · September 2, 2017, 13:22


A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday was located about 300 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday morning, and was moving west at about 10 - 15 mph. Satellite images on Saturday morning showed the wave had a modest amount of spin, but heavy thunderstorm activity was thin and poorly organized. Conditions were favorable for development, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, SSTs near 28.5°C (83°F), and a moist surrounding atmosphere.


The 0Z Saturday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—had two of the three, the European and UKMET, predict development of this wave by Tuesday or Wednesday, over the central tropical Atlantic. Over 40% of the 70 forecasts from the 0Z Saturday GFS and European model ensemble predicted development. The 0Z and 6Z Saturday runs of the GFS were not keen on developing the system, predicting that the system would be close enough to Hurricane Irma such that upper-level outflow from the hurricane would create destructively high wind shear over the central Atlantic next week. The wave will move west or potentially west-northwest over the coming week, and residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should keep an eye on this system. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 60%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Jose.
.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Harvey, located over Kentucky.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could
become a tropical depression early next week
while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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09-02-2017, 06:33 PM (This post was last modified: 09-02-2017 06:35 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #8
RE: The next Cape Verde
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week
while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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09-03-2017, 01:09 PM
Post: #9
RE: The next Cape Verde
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the
wave axis. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extent from the Yucatan Peninsula westward into the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for
significant development as the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Roberts
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09-03-2017, 07:01 PM
Post: #10
RE: The next Cape Verde
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form toward the end of the week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi
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