HURRICANE JOSE

[Joe-Nathan]

JOSE YOU ARE DRUNK...GO HOME:

[magichat134]

Hurricanes and Hueys do not do loops!!


Seriously, what weather is behind this projected track? Over the years I have learned so much by reading the pro discussions here. Squirrel is still here, but what happened to Sir Cane? What happened to the in depth discussions, where I barely understood more than a jist? Roll, you have done an amazing job... mostly alone. (Kicking the silent mets in the a$$!)

[ROLLTIDE]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017

Jose is fighting 25 knots of northeasterly shear this morning
according to the UW-CIMSS analysis. A new blowup of deep convection
over the center overnight is helping to maintain the satellite-based
current intensity estimates, with TAFB and CPHC coming in at 5.0
while SAB had 4.5 and ADT gave 4.6. Have maintained the intensity at
90 kt for this advisory. A 0826z SSMI pass and an 1118z SSMIS pass
were quite helpful in determining the analysis position.

The analyzed motion for 12z was about 330/12, but Jose should begin
trending more northward over the next few hours, if it hasn't
already. There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy,
as Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the
next 72 hours. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a
mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in
24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and north of Jose
between days 3 and 4. The guidance initially showed this would be a
rather tight loop, but has opened it up considerably in the past
few runs with the GFS and consensus models beginning to lean toward
the ECMWF idea. Have adjusted the forecast track to be closer to
the TVCN. By days 4 and 5, Jose should track toward the west-
northwest with a bit faster forward motion as the aforementioned
mid-level high strengthens to the northeast of Jose.

Northerly shear should continue to affect the hurricane for the next
couple of days, although there are some differences in the guidance
about how strong this shear will be. Have maintained the trend of
the previous intensity forecast showing gradual weakening for the
next few days. Jose will likely also cross its own wake between days
3 and 4, which is a little later than previously expected with the
larger loop depicted in the forecast track. This forecast maintains
modest re-intensification at days 4 and 5 as some of the guidance
shows the shear relaxing somewhat and the SSTs will be quite warm,
although confidence is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 25.5N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 26.6N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 27.1N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 26.6N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 66.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.1N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 24.6N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

[TXFPCoach]

Cool sight I haven't seen on here http://www.Ventusky.com

Change the wind speed to 925 hPa 750m

Its was pretty accurate with the last 2 and shows Jose heading to Richmond on the 20th

[SaltwaterServr]

(09-11-2017 10:20 AM)TXFPCoach Wrote:  Cool sight I haven't seen on here http://www.Ventusky.com

Change the wind speed to 925 hPa 750m

Its was pretty accurate with the last 2 and shows Jose heading to Richmond on the 20th

That is a really useful site. Thanks for sharing the link!

[ROLLTIDE]

(09-11-2017 01:41 PM)SaltwaterServr Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 10:20 AM)TXFPCoach Wrote:  Cool sight I haven't seen on here http://www.Ventusky.com

Change the wind speed to 925 hPa 750m

Its was pretty accurate with the last 2 and shows Jose heading to Richmond on the 20th

That is a really useful site. Thanks for sharing the link!

Somebody should find and add that to the thread with all of the storm related links

[Joe-Nathan]

Yup Jose is still drunk...:

[GSB]

Jose heading to NYC?

[ROLLTIDE]

10am

Quote: Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

Satellite images indicate that a ragged eye is trying to form with
Jose, although microwave data show that any eyewall features are
broken. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose is close to becoming a
hurricane again, but since an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
will be there in a couple hours, it is best to leave the wind speed
60 kt for now. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for
intensification, as water vapor images show a noticeable improvement
in outflow compared to yesterday. The light-shear window should be
short lived, since southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by
all models on Sunday. Thus some intensification is shown up to
that day, with a gradual weakening forecast after the weekend due to
decreasing SSTs and shear. Little change was made to the previous
intensity forecast.

Jose has turned northwestward overnight at about 8 kt. A west-
northwest to northwest motion is forecast through tomorrow while the
storm moves around the southwestern periphery of a west Atlantic
ridge. Jose is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and continue in
that direction through Tuesday as it moves between the ridge and a
small trough over the southeastern United States. Model guidance
remains in fairly good agreement with the track of Jose, although
the GFS-based guidance is a lot faster than the UKMET or ECMWF
models. The new forecast is about the same as the previous one,
near the corrected-consensus guidance. It is important to note that
the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225
miles, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is currently forecast to pass well
east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-
force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could
approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north
along the U.S. east coast, it is too soon to determine if any other
direct impacts from Jose will occur. Interests along the U.S. east
coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress
of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 26.5N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 27.1N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 29.1N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 30.4N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 33.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 36.1N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Alabamaboy]

Either Jose is drinking some serious Tequlia or smoking meth doing another loop de loop then slam into Va, smh