Post Reply 
HURRICANE JOSE
09-06-2017, 06:51 AM (This post was last modified: 09-06-2017 07:24 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #21
RE: TROPICAL STORM JOSE
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 42.8W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Jose.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 42.8 West. Jose is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly faster
west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose is
expected to become a hurricane by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

[Image: plot20170906-0444.gif]

[Image: 20170906.1145.goes13.x.vis1km_high.12LJO....100pc.jpg]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-06-2017, 09:16 AM
Post: #22
RE: TROPICAL STORM JOSE
IMPACT WX UPDATE:


Tropical Storm Jose
9/6/17 8:20 AM


Quote:Current Location13.2N, 44.1WGeographic Reference1035 miles east of BarbadosMovementWest-northwest at 16 mphMax Winds65 mph gusting to 80 mphCurrent Hurricane Severity Index5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size / 3 intensity)Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index23 out of a possible 50 points (11 size / 12 intensity)Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds85 milesMax Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds150 milesOrganizational TrendIncreasingForecast ConfidenceAverage

StormGeo Advisory 5

Key Points
1. Jose is forecast to become a hurricane by this evening.
2. Jose is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.
3. The track was adjusted to the west on this advisory which will result in tropical storm force winds across the Leeward Islands this weekend.



Our Forecast
Jose is showing signs of significant strengthening this morning. It is becoming more likely Jose will become a hurricane later today. The environment will become more favorable for intensification over the next few days. Jose will become an intense hurricane on Friday. Later this weekend and into early next week, wind shear will increase and weakening is anticipated.

The track forecast was adjusted to the west. This will put Jose close enough to the Leeward Islands to produce scattered squalls and tropical storm force winds across the Leeward Islands Saturday into early Sunday. Later next week, the steering currents are expected to become much weaker as Jose reaches an area between Puerto Rico and Bermuda. This will cause Jose to possibly meander for a couple of days.


Expected Impacts on Land:
Leeward Islands
Scattered squalls could impact the Leeward Islan ds Saturday into Sunday morning. Sustained winds of 40 mph to 50 mph are possible on Saturday into early Sunday morning while Jose makes its closest approach.

Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST/EDT.

Meteorologist, Claude Aultman

Trained Weather Spotter
CoCoRaHS Volunteer
https://www.instagram.com/bostickjm
https://twitter.com/BostickJM
http://www.livechasers.com/JonathanBostick
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-06-2017, 04:43 PM (This post was last modified: 09-06-2017 04:44 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #23
RE: HURRICANE JOSE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 062035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...QUICKLY STRENGTHENING JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 45.8W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 45.8 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose
could be near major hurricane strength on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Image: 204055_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-06-2017, 06:44 PM
Post: #24
RE: HURRICANE JOSE
[Image: al122017.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-07-2017, 03:37 PM
Post: #25
RE: HURRICANE JOSE
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 7
Location: 15.5°N 52.4°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-07-2017, 09:51 PM
Post: #26
RE: HURRICANE JOSE
000
WTNT42 KNHC 080249
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

After strengthening quickly throughout the day, the intensity of
Jose appears to have leveled off this evening. Nonetheless, Jose
is an impressive category 3 hurricane. The eye remains quite
distinct and the convective cloud pattern is fairly symmetric. In
addition, the upper-level outflow is well established, indicative of
the favorable wind flow pattern aloft. The initial intensity is
held at 105 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB
and SAB.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24
hours while Jose remains in relatively conducive environmental
conditions. Thereafter, a slow weakening trend is forecast due to
an increase in wind shear and a progressively drier air mass. The
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC official intensity
forecast is in line with the consensus models. This forecast is
slightly lower than the previous one.

The initial motion is 280/16 kt. The track forecast philosophy is
unchanged from earlier. A subtropical ridge should cause Jose to
move west-northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the
hurricane very near the northern Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday. After that time, the hurricane is expected to move
northwestward and then northward into a weakness in the ridge. The
NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Antigua has issued a
tropical storm warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 15.6N 53.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.1N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.2N 62.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 25.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 27.1N 67.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-08-2017, 06:24 AM
Post: #27
RE: HURRICANE JOSE
5am

Quote: 000
WTNT42 KNHC 080838
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

Jose's satellite presentation has improved overnight. Cold cloud
tops of -75C now surround the clearer and more distinct warming eye.
The initial intensity is increased to 110 kt and is based on a
compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity
T-numbers and recent cloud pattern trends. Some increase in
strength is still possible during the next day or so while the
cyclone remains in a marginally conducive environment. Through the
remainder of the forecast period, however, gradual weakening is
expected due to an increase in northerly wind shear and an intruding
drier more stable thermodynamic environment. The NHC forecast is
close to the HWRF model through 48 hours, and then closely follows
the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/14
kt. Large-scale models are quite similar on a subtropical ridge
steering Jose west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, placing
the cyclone very near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and
Saturday. Through day 5, Jose is expected to move northwestward and
then northward in response to a large amplitude mid-tropospheric
trough approaching the tropical cyclone from the northwest. The new
NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous package and is
based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 16.0N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 18.5N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 20.0N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 23.5N 67.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 26.4N 68.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 27.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-08-2017, 09:50 AM
Post: #28
RE: HURRICANE JOSE
[b]10:00 AM AST Fri Sep 8[/b]

Location: 16.2°N 56.9°W

Moving: WNW at 18 mph

Min pressure: 942 mb

Max sustained: 150 mph
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-08-2017, 04:00 PM
Post: #29
RE: HURRICANE JOSE
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

Jose's satellite presentation continues to impress. A nearly
perfectly symmetric CDO surrounds a clear eye, and there is still
no sign of weakening due to shear associated with the outflow of
Hurricane Irma. Since the earlier reconnaissance flight, Dvorak
intensity estimates have actually increased, however they are still
lower than what the plane found. The initial intensity has been
held at 130 kt, out of respect of the earlier in-situ observations,
but given the current cloud pattern, this could be conservative.
Another reconnaissance flight this evening will give a better
estimate of the intensity.

Internal dynamics are still expected to be the primary factor in
the intensity for the next 12 hours or so. After that, all of the
intensity guidance continues to show weakening throughout the
forecast, though it is worth noting that Jose has already exceeded
all previous forecasts. The NHC forecast continues to follow the
trend of the models, but is a little above the consensus for most
of the forecast period. Given the small size of the inner-core of
Jose, if the shear does finally increase, weakening could occur at a
faster rate than indicated.

The global models have come into very good agreement on the track
of Jose for the next 2 days, and there is finally a high degree of
confidence in that part of the forecast. The eye of Jose should
turn toward the northwest tonight and pass just east of Barbuda on
Saturday. Beyond 48 h, the extent to which an approaching mid-level
trough will cause the hurricane to turn toward the north, and
eventually toward the east still varies from model to model, however
the model spread has decreased. Both the GFS and ECMWF show Jose
being left behind by the trough at some point and trapped in light
steering flow. The forecast continues to split these two models,
and is very close to the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.6N 58.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 17.3N 60.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 19.9N 64.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.7N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 24.9N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 27.0N 68.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 28.0N 66.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-08-2017, 07:10 PM
Post: #30
RE: HURRICANE JOSE
[Image: 235335_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 2 Guest(s)