HURRICANE JOSE

[Her-icane]

Henson for JM

Quote: New tropical depression possible in the central Atlantic


Bob Henson · September 3, 2017, 22:29


A tropical wave located about 300 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday afternoon was moving west at about 10 mph. Satellite images on Sunday afternoon showed the wave had a modest amount of spin, but heavy thunderstorm activity was thin and poorly organized. Conditions were favorable for development, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, SSTs near 28°C (82°F), and a moist surrounding atmosphere.


The 0Z and 12Z Sunday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—had two of the three, the European and UKMET, predict development of this wave by mid-week, over the central tropical Atlantic. The GFS model delayed development until Friday, when it predicted the system would be close to the Lesser Antilles Islands. Over 40% of the 70 forecasts from the 0Z Sunday GFS and European model ensemble predicted development. The wave will move west to west-northwest over the coming week, and residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should keep an eye on this system. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 2 pm EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 60%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Jose.


If Jose develops and ends up within about 850 miles of Irma, it is possible that the two systems will influence each other’s tracks via the Fujiwhara phenomenon. This could push Irma’s track slightly toward the southwest and Jose’s track slightly northeast. If Jose does develop, the physics within global models would account for such interaction in their track forecasts.
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[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

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Henson for JM

Quote:
Bob Henson · September 4, 2017, 16:36



New tropical depression possible in the central Atlantic


A tropical wave located at 8 am EDT Monday morning near 10°N, 35°W, about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, was moving west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. This system was designated 94L by NHC on Monday morning. Satellite images on Monday morning showed the wave had a modest amount of spin, and heavy thunderstorm activity was gradually increasing. Conditions were favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, SSTs near 28.5°C (83°F), and a moist surrounding atmosphere.


The 0Z Monday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—all predicted development of this wave by the end of the week, over the central tropical Atlantic. Residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should keep an eye on this system, though less than 10% of the 70 members of the 0Z Monday GFS and European model ensemble forecasts showed 94L affecting the Lesser Antilles in the long term. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Monday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30% and 70%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Jose.

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AL, 94, 2017090412, , BEST, 0, 96N, 354W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, al732017 to al942017,

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[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers activity and gusty winds.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for slow
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located a couple hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
are gradually becoming better organized. Conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system. There is a
high likelihood that a tropical depression or tropical storm will
form within the next day or two while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days while it meanders over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains associated with this
disturbance are likely over portions of eastern Mexico during the
remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Landsea

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[Her-icane]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 051454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 39.1W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the future progress
of Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 39.1 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a
movement toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly faster
rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Jose
could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...JOSE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 41.7W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the future progress
of Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 41.7 West. Jose is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly faster
west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose is
expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

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[Her-icane]

JM

Quote: Tropical Storm Jose gaining strength in Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Jose, christened on Tuesday morning, was moving west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph with top sustained winds up to 45 mph as of 5 pm EDT. Satellite images on Tuesday showed plenty of spin, and heavy thunderstorm activity was gradually increasing and growing more organized. Conditions were favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, SSTs near 28.5°C (83°F), and a moist surrounding atmosphere.
The 12Z Tuesday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—all predicted further development of Jose, on a northwestward-curving track that will most likely keep it northeast of the Leeward Islands. Only a few of the 50 members of the 12Z Tuesday European model ensemble forecasts showed Jose affecting the Leewards late this week. The official NHC forecast as of 5 pm Tuesday takes Jose within about 100-200 miles of the Leeward Islands as a strong Category 2 hurricane by Saturday, so high surf, gale-force winds, and some rain may be possible. The GFS and Euro predict that Jose will stall well southwest of Bermuda, possibly carrying out an unusual cyclonic loop later next week, but track forecasts at this long range have very little accuracy.
Because Jose and Irma are more than 1000 miles apart, their tracks are unlikely to be influenced by the Fujiwhara effect. However, outflow from Irma could produce vertical shear that may slow Jose's development later this week.
Figure 8. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Jose as of 2315Z (7:15 pm EDT) Tuesday, September 5, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.