Post Reply 
HURRICANE KATIA
08-30-2017, 01:53 PM (This post was last modified: 09-06-2017 04:42 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #1
HURRICANE KATIA
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over southwestern Louisiana and on newly
formed Tropical Storm Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Irma are issued under WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Irma are issued under WMO header
WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Blake

[Image: two_atl_2d0.png]

[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]

From NHC Twitter -


NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 25m25 minutes ago


If this system develops, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the TX/LA coast, but too early to determine specific impacts


11:30 AM - 30 Aug 2017
.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-30-2017, 08:34 PM (This post was last modified: 08-30-2017 08:58 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #2
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Harvey, located over central Louisiana and on Tropical
Storm Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts
. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Irma are issued under WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Irma are issued under WMO header
WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Avila



Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-31-2017, 10:34 AM
Post: #3
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Harvey, located over northern Louisiana.

1. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range, and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this potential system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KWNH and under AWIPS header TCPAT4.

Public Advisories on Irma are issued under WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Irma are issued under WMO header
WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Blake
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-31-2017, 10:36 AM
Post: #4
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
This is the one I am concerned about more so than Irma the likely fish . I can't believe that TWC is hyping Irma already Smile

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-31-2017, 02:44 PM
Post: #5
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Corrected system order

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Harvey, located over southeastern Arkansas.

1. A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is moving westward
at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for some development over the weekend while the system
moves well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


2. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range, and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this potential system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KWNH
and under AWIPS header TCPAT4.

Forecaster Blake
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-31-2017, 05:48 PM (This post was last modified: 08-31-2017 05:49 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #6
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
JM

Quote:Dr. Jeff Masters · August 31, 2017, 14:20


Watching the Gulf for another potential tropical cyclone
Quote:The last thing that residents of Texas and Louisiana need is another tropical system to worry about. Alas, computer models suggest that another tropical cyclone could develop in the western Gulf of Mexico next week. Fortunately, all signals are that this would be a much weaker system that Harvey was, even if it does form. Wind shear is predicted to relax over the Bay of Campache by early next week, and a tropical depression could take shape over the bay’s warm waters. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am Thursday, NHC gave near-zero odds of anything developing in the area through Sunday, and only 20% odds of at least a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Ensemble model runs from Wednesday night provide limited support for the idea of a depression or weak tropical storm moving north from the Bay of Campeche next week. About two-thirds of the GFS ensemble members, but only about 20% of the European ensemble members, develop at least a depression by Tuesday. Among the 00Z Thursday runs of our top three operational models for longer-range forecasting (the GFS, Euro, and UKMET), only the Euro developed the western Gulf system, although the 06Z GFS run has a slow-moving weak cyclone traversing the northwest Gulf late next week, much like the 00Z Euro run.
.



Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-31-2017, 07:48 PM (This post was last modified: 08-31-2017 07:51 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #7
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Harvey, located over northern Mississippi.

1. A tropical wave emerging over the far eastern Atlantic is moving
westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development over the weekend and early
next week while the system moves well to the south and southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


2. A area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend, however, environmental conditions are
expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by
that time. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coasts are
encouraged to consult products from their local NWS Forecast Office
for more information about impacts from any non-tropical weather
systems.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KWNH
and under AWIPS header TCPAT4.

Forecaster Zelinsky
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-04-2017, 07:28 AM
Post: #8
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-04-2017, 12:58 PM (This post was last modified: 09-04-2017 01:11 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #9
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

Henson for JM


Quote:Bob Henson · September 4, 2017, 16:36



Gulf of Mexico disturbance has marginal chance to develop


A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite imagery. SSTs are very warm, but wind shear is moderate to high, 10 – 25 knots. One of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, developed the system, predicting that it would affect the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico with heavy rains late this week. The European model showed some weak development of the system, as did about 60% of its ensemble members; all of these forecasts kept the system bottled up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the coast of Mexico. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Monday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 40%, respectively.
.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-04-2017, 07:43 PM (This post was last modified: 09-04-2017 08:25 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #10
RE: Potential low in Gulf by weekend
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers activity and gusty winds.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for slow
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

.
AL, 95, 2017090500, , BEST, 0, 217N, 962W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
.

[Image: 20170905.0037.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.95LINVES...W.73pc.jpg]

[Image: plot20170904-2101.gif]

[Image: aal95_2017090500_track_early.png]

[Image: aal95_2017090500_intensity_early.png]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)