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HURRICANE KATIA
09-07-2017, 03:41 PM
Post: #21
RE: HURRICANE KATIA
4:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 7
Location: 21.6°N 94.6°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

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09-08-2017, 06:25 AM
Post: #22
RE: HURRICANE KATIA
5am

Quote: 000
WTNT43 KNHC 080838
TCDAT3

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite
image indicate improved banding over the western portion of the
circulation and the earlier ragged eye presentation has become much
more distinct. Subsequently, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
have increased along with the Objective ADT T-number, and the
initial intensity is bumped up to 80 kt. Further strengthening is
possible, and Katia could be near major hurricane intensity prior to
landfall Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening is
expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain
of the Sierra Madre mountains after the 48 hour period.

The initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 250/3 kt. A
continued slow west-southwestward motion under the influence of a
mid-latitude high extending east from Texas is forecast until the
cyclone makes landfall and quickly dissipates. The official forecast
has changed little from the previous one, and is based primarily on
the HFIP Corrected Consensus multi-model.

In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains
associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.3N 95.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.0N 96.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 20.3N 97.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 19.3N 98.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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09-08-2017, 09:51 AM
Post: #23
RE: HURRICANE KATIA
000
WTNT43 KNHC 081440
TCDAT3

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Infrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite data indicate
improved banding over the western portion of the circulation with
visible pictures showing the formation of a ragged eye. Subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both
supported 80 kt winds earlier, and aircraft data suggested that
Katia has continued to intensify, so the initial intensity has been
increased to 85 knots. Further strengthening is possible, and Katia
could be approaching major hurricane intensity prior to landfall
Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and
Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra
Madre mountains after the 48 hour period.

The initial motion estimate is 240/4 kt. A continued slow
west-southwestward motion under the influence of a mid-latitude high
extending east from Texas is forecast until the cyclone makes
landfall and quickly dissipates. The official track forecast has
changed little from the previous one, and remains roughly in the
middle of the guidance.

In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains
associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These
rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.0N 95.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.6N 96.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.7N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0000Z 19.1N 98.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bann/Carbin

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09-08-2017, 04:01 PM
Post: #24
RE: HURRICANE KATIA
CZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Satellite imagery continues to show Katia becoming better organized
with the formation of a small, cloud-filled eye this afternoon.
The initial wind speed has been increased to 90 knots based on the
subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Another
reconnaissance plane is expected to arrive in a few hours to check
on the winds of Katia.

Additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall, and Katia
could still become a major hurricane, but there is only about 6
hours left for this to occur. After landfall, rapid weakening is
expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain
of the Sierra Madre mountains between 24 and 36 hours.

Katia has moved westward during the day, but a longer-term motion is
still west-southwestward at 6 kt. The official track forecast was
shifted to the north near landfall due to the more westerly track
this afternoon. The new forecast then resumes a more southwesterly
track based on northerly mid/upper-level flow seen on infrared
imagery ahead of the storm and model guidance.

In addition to a dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds,
very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect
eastern Mexico. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 21.0N 96.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 20.8N 97.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 20.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake

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09-08-2017, 07:11 PM (This post was last modified: 09-08-2017 07:12 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #25
RE: HURRICANE KATIA
[Image: 235208_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO KATIA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 96.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco
* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 96.8 West. Katia is moving
toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. The center of Katia will make
landfall in Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall,
followed by rapid weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels near and to the
north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area tonight or early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions expected to continue within the tropical storm
warning areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Lamers/Blake

NNNN
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