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HURRICANE KATIA
09-05-2017, 06:48 AM (This post was last modified: 09-05-2017 06:52 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #11
RE: INVEST 95L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located a couple hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
are gradually becoming better organized. Conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system. There is a
high likelihood that a tropical depression or tropical storm will
form within the next day or two while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days while it meanders over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains associated with this
disturbance are likely over portions of eastern Mexico during the
remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Landsea

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09-05-2017, 11:23 AM
Post: #12
RE: INVEST 95L
UPDATE FROM IMPACT WX:


Disturbance 34
9/5/17 7:50 AM

Quote:Current Location22.4N / 97WGeographic Reference50 miles east of Tampico, MXMovementDrifting SoutheastMax Winds30 mph gusting 40 mphCurrent Hurricane Severity Index0 out of a possible 50 pointsMax Predicted Hurricane Severity Index3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds70 milesOrganizational TrendSlowly IncreasingChance of Development90 percentForecast ConfidenceAverage

StormGeo Advisory 1

Key Points
1. Disturbance 34 will likely become a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a tropical storm on Wednesday or Thursday.
2. The storm should remain in the Bay of Campeche, moving inland north of Veracruz on Saturday evening.



Our Forecast
Satellite imagery and observations from a wind satellite indicate that Disturbance 34 has developed a circulation center east of Tampico this morning. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the disturbance early this afternoon. It is likely that a tropical depression has formed. Steering currents in the southwest Gulf and Bay of Campeche are very weak, indicating that the system will track slowly southeastward over the next 2-3 days, perhaps performing a small loop in the Bay of Campeche. During this time, we think that the system will become a tropical storm.

By Friday, dry air flowing down the coast of Mexico into the Bay of Campeche should lead to gradual weakening and eventual dissipation as the center approaches the coast of Mexico well north of Veracruz on Saturday evening. There is no threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3PM CDT

Meteorologist, Chris Hebert

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09-05-2017, 03:44 PM
Post: #13
RE: INVEST 95L
Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

The small area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
has become better organized during the past several hours, with deep
convection forming over the center. ASCAT data showed a
well-defined circulation with winds of about 30 kt. Thus, a
tropical depression has formed, with maximum winds estimated at 30
kt. While the cyclone is currently experiencing westerly shear,
most of the guidance indicate the shear should gradually lessen.
Combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, this should
promote strengthening. The shear could increase again in a few
days, so the intensity forecast will be leveled off at that time.
The NHC wind speed prediction is near or slightly higher than the
model consensus, but could be conservative.

The depression has been drifting eastward during the day. For the
next couple of days, the cyclone isn't expected to move much as it
is caught in an area of light winds in the mid-levels. By Friday, a
ridge should build over Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,
which is likely to steer the system southwestward at a faster pace.
The NHC forecast is on the southern side of the guidance, since
models in that area tend to have a northward bias, between the
corrected consensus and the ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.4N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.2N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 21.8N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 21.4N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 19.7N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

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09-05-2017, 08:12 PM
Post: #14
RE: TD#13 GOM
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09-05-2017, 10:51 PM
Post: #15
RE: TD#13 GOM
JM


Quote: [Image: td13-modis-9.5.17.jpg]Figure 9. MODIS image of TD 13 taken on Tuesday afternoon, September 5, 2017. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Depression 13 develops in Gulf of Mexico
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche became Tropical Depression 13 on Tuesday afternoon. The system was producing increasingly organized heavy thunderstorms on Tuesday, as seen on satellite imagery. SSTs are very warm, near 30.5°C (87°F), but wind shear is high, 20 – 30 knots. As of 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday, TD 13 was located about 80 miles east of Tampico, Mexico, drifting east at just 2 mph with top sustained winds of 35 mph.

Our three most reliable models for longer-term hurricane prediction—the European, GFS, and UKMET—predicted in their Tuesday morning runs that TD 13 would affect the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico with heavy rains late this week. Strong upper level winds out of the northwest over the Gulf of Mexico should keep TD 13 bottled up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico this week. All of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble runs from 12Z Tuesday, and about 2/3 of the 50 members of the European ensemble runs from 12Z Tuesday, intensified TD 13 into a tropical storm. None of the 70 ensemble members strengthen TD 13 into a hurricane, though.
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09-06-2017, 06:49 AM (This post was last modified: 09-06-2017 07:26 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #16
RE: TROPICAL STORM KATIA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 060844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Katia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KATIA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the Mexican
state of Veracruz later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Katia was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 96.3 West. Katia is
moving toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and
the system should gradually turn southeastward during the next 24
hours and continue moving in this general direction through
Thursday. A turn toward the southwest is forecast on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Katia is expected to
remain offshore of Mexico through Friday morning
.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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09-06-2017, 09:15 AM (This post was last modified: 09-06-2017 10:09 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #17
RE: TROPICAL STORM KATIA
IMPACT WX UPDATE:


Tropical Storm Katia
9/6/17 9:05 AM

Quote:Current Location21.7N / 95.7WGeographic Reference140 miles east of Tampico, MXMovementSoutheast 6 mphMax Winds45 mph gusting 60 mphCurrent Hurricane Severity Index3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds70 milesOrganizational TrendSlowly IncreasingForecast ConfidenceAverage

StormGeo Advisory 5

Key Points
1. Tropical Storm Katia could become a hurricane by Friday.
2. Flooding rains are likely for southeastern Mexico.
3. There is no threat to the northern Gulf Coast.



Our Forecast
Tropical Storm Katia continues to strengthen across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, moderate westerly wind shear continues to displace most of the shower activity to the east of the center. Katia is forecast to turn to the southwest, making landfall somewhere between Tuxpan and Veracruz by Saturday morning. This system is not a threat to the northern Gulf Coast.

The wind shear is expected to decrease over the next couple of days. This will allow the tropical storm to strengthen, and it could become a hurricane in about 48 hours. Afterward, drier air will make the environment less favorable for intensification, and the system is expected to weaken before it makes landfall. The forecast landfall intensity is 60 mph. Nonetheless, the primary threat is the heavy rainfall that it is likely to produce in southeastern Mexico.


Expected Impacts on Land
Veracruz to Tampico
Flooding and mudslides are likely. Near where the center makes landfall, power outages are likely.

Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT.

Meteorologist, Claude Aultman

\


AF C-130J enroute to Katia:




Quote:Plane Location
Time of last reported ob: 14:58Z on Sep. 6, 2017
Direction of Travel: Toward the SSW (204°)
Location: 7 statute miles (12 km) to the SW (217°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.

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09-06-2017, 04:45 PM (This post was last modified: 09-06-2017 04:46 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #18
RE: HURRICANE KATIA
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

...HURRICANE KATIA FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of the state of Veracruz from Tuxpan to Laguna Verde.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Laguna Verde

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.1 West. Katia is moving
toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Little overall motion is
anticipated through tonight, but a southwestward drift should begin
tomorrow.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over northern Veracruz, and 2 to 5 inches over far
southern Tamaulipas, northeast Puebla, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
in northern Veracruz. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier that
day.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

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09-06-2017, 06:45 PM
Post: #19
RE: HURRICANE KATIA
[Image: al132017.gif]
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09-07-2017, 09:46 AM
Post: #20
RE: HURRICANE KATIA
11am

Quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the central
pressure had dropped to 982 mb and maximum SFMR-observed surface
winds were close to 70 kt. Therefore 70 kt will be retained for the
current intensity. Vertical wind shear should remain low over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days and the global
models show well-developed upper-level outflow over the tropical
cyclone. Thus, further strengthening is likely up to landfall. The
official intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the model
consensus and Katia could approach major hurricane status before it
crosses that coast.

Fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft show essentially no motion
over the last several hours. A mid-level ridge is likely to build
to the north of Katia during the next day or so. This should
induce a west-southwestward motion beginning tonight or early
Friday, leading to landfall by late Friday or early Saturday. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to
the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.6N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.4N 95.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.2N 95.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.7N 96.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.9N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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