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HURRICANE IRMA
09-10-2017, 07:16 PM
Post: #691
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
Can someone help on this. Watching ABC in Orlando and the path appears to go due north with the strongest eye wall reaching ORL. That would be a huge change in the path.
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09-10-2017, 07:21 PM
Post: #692
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
(09-10-2017 07:16 PM)dafif Wrote:  Can someone help on this. Watching ABC in Orlando and the path appears to go due north with the strongest eye wall reaching ORL. That would be a huge change in the path.

Not seeing that at all on the official guidance but, maybe there's something interim out there I haven't seen yet....
.
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09-10-2017, 07:29 PM
Post: #693
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
(09-10-2017 07:06 PM)Frog Wrote:  Still have power here in Odessa, about 20 miles North of Tampa. As a former Guam resident and Navy SEAL Vet, this is what we call a Banana Typhoon, i.e. no big deal for us. 15K Generator and 30 gal of gas on standby in case it gets bad.
(09-10-2017 07:06 PM)Frog Wrote:  Ah, Guam. When I was at A&M, a man named Dwight Look donated over $54 million to the College....they renamed the engineering school after him. His donation was 1000 acres on the island, which at the time was popular among Japanese tourists (late 80s...the Japanese were still going to rule the world back then, kind of like the Chinese are now). He made his money building reinforced concrete buildings. He had found sales difficult until a typhoon scraped every structure crom the island.....except for his three demonstration buildings. He couldn't build fast enouvh after that.
(09-10-2017 07:06 PM)Frog Wrote:  Did you own a "Guam Bomb" when you were there?
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09-10-2017, 07:33 PM
Post: #694
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
ABC guy, Tom Terry, insisting, that it is going to go straight north ...with shifting rain bands going north as well rather than shift back west. Orlando going to take a beating. Tried to look at each model and nothing showing that path. He thinks the track is going to be to the right of what is put out there.
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09-10-2017, 07:37 PM (This post was last modified: 09-10-2017 08:22 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #695
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
(09-10-2017 07:29 PM)John Galt Wrote:  
(09-10-2017 07:06 PM)Frog Wrote:  Still have power here in Odessa, about 20 miles North of Tampa. As a former Guam resident and Navy SEAL Vet, this is what we call a Banana Typhoon, i.e. no big deal for us. 15K Generator and 30 gal of gas on standby in case it gets bad.
(09-10-2017 07:06 PM)Frog Wrote:  Ah, Guam. When I was at A&M, a man named Dwight Look donated over $54 million to the College....they renamed the engineering school after him. His donation was 1000 acres on the island, which at the time was popular among Japanese tourists (late 80s...the Japanese were still going to rule the world back then, kind of like the Chinese are now). He made his money building reinforced concrete buildings. He had found sales difficult until a typhoon scraped every structure crom the island.....except for his three demonstration buildings. He couldn't build fast enouvh after that.
(09-10-2017 07:06 PM)Frog Wrote:  Did you own a "Guam Bomb" when you were there?
Would ask that we never, ever disparage the amount of damage and mental anguish this storm has caused - if nothing else, we had an entire state on high alert for what appeared to be imminent....in retrospect we may see that, thankfully, much did not come to fruition YET....but it's not over....thousands fled from their homes and waited nervously for this to resolve....others frantically boarded their homes and laid in supplies.....some, unfortunately, lost their lives....tons of Federal, State and local dollars have already been spent to ensure the safety of the citizens of FL....after all this is but a memory, then we can begin to compare to things we've all experienced both in FL and in other places....right now, the wound is raw and still being injured.....

ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
900 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...900 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...

An unofficial observing site in Moore Haven, Florida, just measured
a wind gust of 89 mph (143 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Onderlinde


NNNN

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09-10-2017, 08:46 PM
Post: #696
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
Multiple Orlando TV stations reporting that track now moving straight north actually away from Tampa toward Orlando. With all the power in the north east quadrant, Polk county up toward Orlando going to take the brunt of this thing. Not good.
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09-10-2017, 08:52 PM
Post: #697
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
900 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...900 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...

An unofficial observing site in Moore Haven, Florida, just measured
a wind gust of 89 mph (143 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Onderlinde

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09-10-2017, 08:54 PM
Post: #698
RE: HURRICANE IRMA

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09-10-2017, 09:53 PM
Post: #699
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Irma's center has moved northward across the western Florida
peninsula since it made landfall earlier this afternoon, and it is
now located over west-central Florida. NOAA WSR-88D radar data from
Tampa Bay are showing 95-100 kt winds at an elevation of about 3500
ft, so the hurricane's intensity is estimated to be 85 kt. Irma
continues to have a large wind field, and exceptional hurricane-
force wind gusts are still occurring well to the east of the center
along the Florida east coast.

Irma appears to be making some progress to the west of due north,
and the longer-term initial motion is 350/12 kt. The cyclone is
expected to swing around the eastern side of a mid-level disturbance
currently located along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which should impart a
north-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next 48
hours. Due to its recent more inland push, Irma's center is now
forecast to remain over Florida and then move over the southeastern
United States for the duration of its existence. Due to continued
land interaction and strong shear of over 30 kt, Irma should
continue to lose strength and fall below hurricane intensity
on Monday. The cyclone is then expected to become a remnant low
over western Tennessee by day 3 and dissipate by day 4.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding
along much of the Florida coast, including the Florida Keys, and
portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, where a Storm
Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind impacts to much
of Florida, with hurricane-force winds near the center. Also,
Irma is a large hurricane, and hurricane-force wind gusts and
sustained tropical-storm force winds extend far from the center.
Wind hazards from Irma will also spread northward through Georgia
and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North
Carolina.

3. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding
across much of Florida, and these rains will spread into the rest
of the southeast United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4
inches per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on
creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely
over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern
Georgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches and
isolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is
possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central
Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where
average rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are
expected. The southern Appalachian Mountains will be especially
vulnerable to flash flooding. Irma is also expected to produce
average amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama
and Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may
occur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 27.5N 81.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/1200Z 29.4N 82.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 31.9N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 33.9N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0000Z 37.5N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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09-10-2017, 09:54 PM
Post: #700
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Irma's center has moved northward across the western Florida
peninsula since it made landfall earlier this afternoon, and it is
now located over west-central Florida. NOAA WSR-88D radar data from
Tampa Bay are showing 95-100 kt winds at an elevation of about 3500
ft, so the hurricane's intensity is estimated to be 85 kt. Irma
continues to have a large wind field, and exceptional hurricane-
force wind gusts are still occurring well to the east of the center
along the Florida east coast.

Irma appears to be making some progress to the west of due north,
and the longer-term initial motion is 350/12 kt. The cyclone is
expected to swing around the eastern side of a mid-level disturbance
currently located along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which should impart a
north-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next 48
hours. Due to its recent more inland push, Irma's center is now
forecast to remain over Florida and then move over the southeastern
United States for the duration of its existence. Due to continued
land interaction and strong shear of over 30 kt, Irma should
continue to lose strength and fall below hurricane intensity
on Monday. The cyclone is then expected to become a remnant low
over western Tennessee by day 3 and dissipate by day 4.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding
along much of the Florida coast, including the Florida Keys, and
portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, where a Storm
Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind impacts to much
of Florida, with hurricane-force winds near the center. Also,
Irma is a large hurricane, and hurricane-force wind gusts and
sustained tropical-storm force winds extend far from the center.
Wind hazards from Irma will also spread northward through Georgia
and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North
Carolina.

3. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding
across much of Florida, and these rains will spread into the rest
of the southeast United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4
inches per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on
creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely
over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern
Georgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches and
isolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is
possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central
Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where
average rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are
expected. The southern Appalachian Mountains will be especially
vulnerable to flash flooding. Irma is also expected to produce
average amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama
and Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may
occur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 27.5N 81.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/1200Z 29.4N 82.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 31.9N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 33.9N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0000Z 37.5N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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