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HURRICANE IRMA
09-01-2017, 09:24 AM
Post: #41
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
Rolleyes The media is sure hyping this !!


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09-01-2017, 09:54 AM
Post: #42
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 011449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 37.8W
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 37.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is
expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on
Saturday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during
the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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09-01-2017, 12:07 PM
Post: #43
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
Come and play our NCAA pickem contest !!





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09-01-2017, 01:18 PM (This post was last modified: 09-01-2017 01:21 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #44
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
[Image: irma-viirs-aug31.jpg]


Hurricane Irma is a Mighty Storm—But Where is It Heading?
Bob Henson · September 1, 2017, 16:05




Above: Infrared VIIRS image of Hurricane Irma at 11:47 pm EDT August 31, 2017. At the time, Irma was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: UW-Madison CIMSS.

Hurricane Irma rapidly intensified into a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at 5 pm EDT Thursday, becoming the earliest storm on record to become a major hurricane east of 35°W. Irma is the second major hurricane of this active Atlantic hurricane season, along with Hurricane Harvey, and it has arrived more than a month before the usual October 3 date for the season's second major hurricane. Irma could potentially impact the islands of the Caribbean next week, and the mainland U.S. or Canada the following week, but uncertainties in its track at such long ranges are quite high.


Both Harvey and Irma were rapid intensifiers, bursting from tropical-storm to major-hurricane strength in less than 36 hours. Irma pulled off this feat in just 12 hours, one of the fastest such leaps on record. Very low wind shear at or below 5 knots allowed Irma to develop a large, robust structure remarkably quickly. Overnight, Irma leveled off in intensity, as it began moving over somewhat cooler sea-surface temperatures, and began an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC.) As of 11 am EDT Friday, Irma had weakened to a top-end Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph.


[Image: irma-history-1.png]
Figure 1. Tracks of all Atlantic hurricanes to reach Category 3 status east of 35°W during the period of good satellite data, 1970 - 2017. Irma’s position is marked with a red hurricane symbol. Only four other hurricanes have reached Category 3 status so far east since reliable satellite records began in the early 1970s:
29.7°W: Frances (Sep 9, 1980)
31.4°W: Julia (Sep 15, 2010)
32.0°W: Fred (Sep 9, 2009)
34.8°W: Irma (Aug 31, 2017)
35.0°W: Isaac (Sep 24, 2000)

[Image: irma-modis-sep1.jpg]
Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of Irma on Friday morning, September 1, 2017, from NASA’s Terra satellite. The eye was not as distinct as on Thursday. Image credit: NASA.

Short-range outlook for Irma


The easiest call for Irma is that it’s going to be plowing through the Atlantic as a powerful hurricane for quite a few days to come. Wind shear will remain very low (around 5 knots or less) from Friday into Saturday. A big constraint on Irma’s growth through then will be sea-surface temperatures of 26-27°C (79-81°F), which are barely warm enough to sustain hurricane development. Relatively dry air (mid-level relative humidities around 50 - 55%) will also be limiting the storm, according to the 12Z run of the SHIPS model. However, Irma will soon be taking a left turn toward warmer waters, heading toward the west-southwest over the next couple of days under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. This west-southwest course is an unusual heading from Irma’s present location, as you might surmise from the track of other major hurricane observed in the past near Irma (Figure 1.) Most major hurricanes located as far northeast as Irma tend to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas.


Forecast models are in close agreement that Irma will track over increasingly warm waters (SSTs of 28-29°C or 82-84°F, which are about 1°C above average) as it heads toward the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday. On the other hand, wind shear will be increasing to the moderate range, about 10-15 knots, so Irma may not intensify beyond Category 3 strength through the Labor Day weekend.


Longer-term outlook for Irma


Irma should begin curving back toward the west-northwest early next week, but it is not yet certain that the curve will be soon enough to keep Irma away from the Leeward Islands, which lie within NHC’s five-day “cone of uncertainty” (see WU tracking map). Beyond Wednesday, the uncertainty in Irma’s track expands greatly. Irma will be sandwiched between a strong Atlantic upper-level ridge and an autumn-like upper-level trough that will be progressing across the U.S. next week. The southerly flow between these features is likely to funnel Irma northward at some point late next week, but it’s still too soon to tell exactly where and when that will happen. The outcome may depend on energy now crossing the Pacific Ocean, which will shape the eventual location and timing of the central U.S. trough next week.


In its 11 am CDT Friday discussion, NHC noted a clustering of model solutions by Wednesday, with the GFS, UKMET, and HMON models favoring a more northward track and the European and HWRF models favoring a more southward trajectory. The latter, which is favored by the NHC and reflected in its forecast track, would be more likely to result in an U.S. threat in about 9 to 12 days. The GFS and Euro ensemble runs from 00Z Friday (Figures 2, 3 and 4 below) give a sense of the range of track possibilities.


[Image: gfs-ensemble-sep1.png]
Figure 3. The 20 track forecasts for Irma from the 0Z Friday, September 1, 2017 GFS model ensemble forecast have half of the solutions indicating an eventual landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but no landfalls in the Caribbean. The 06Z Friday ensemble (not shown) had a larger fraction of solutions with an eventual U.S. landfall. Image credit: CFAN.

[Image: euro-ensemble-sep1-1.png]
Figure 4. The 0Z September 1, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the 50 track forecasts from the 0Z Friday European model ensemble forecast (grey lines), show that the islands of the Caribbean, U.S. East Coast, and eastern Gulf Coast might be at risk from a strike. Image credit: CFAN.

[Image: euro-sep1-highprob.png]Figure 5. The 0Z September 1, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that have performed best with Irma thus far, as of 6Z Friday, show that the U.S. East Coast or Canada might be at highest risk of a strike. Image credit: CFAN.


Both the GFS and Euro operational runs and ensembles have been unusually aggressive and consistent in strengthening Irma later next week into a potential Category 4 or even Cat 5 hurricane. There is little skill in intensity forecasts beyond day 5, but the strength of the model signal tells us there is at least a chance of a powerful Hurricane Irma approaching the U.S. coast more than a week from now. Even the model solutions that show Irma recurving could still produce high surf and swells along much of the U.S. East coast by around next weekend.


The bottom line: Irma could affect the Leeward Islands early next week, and it will need to be watched as a potentially significant threat to the U.S. East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast in the 9- to 12-day period.
.

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09-01-2017, 02:24 PM
Post: #45
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
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09-01-2017, 03:51 PM (This post was last modified: 09-01-2017 03:52 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #46
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 012049
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 39.1W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system
.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 39.1 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest
is expected tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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09-01-2017, 10:12 PM (This post was last modified: 09-01-2017 10:15 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #47
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 020242
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY BUT STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 40.5W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system
.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 40.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest
is expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Image: plot20170901-2255.gif]

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09-02-2017, 06:43 AM (This post was last modified: 09-02-2017 06:46 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #48
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

...IRMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT REMAINS A POWERFUL
HURRICANE
...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 41.8W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system
.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 41.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-southwest motion is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during
the next couple of days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

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09-02-2017, 07:01 AM
Post: #49
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
Come and play our NCAA pickem contest !!











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09-02-2017, 09:56 AM (This post was last modified: 09-02-2017 10:06 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #50
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021454
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

...IRMA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS A SMALL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 43.3W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 43.3 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a turn toward the west-southwest
at a slightly slower rate of speed during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Irma is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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