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HURRICANE IRMA
08-31-2017, 06:49 AM
Post: #21
RE: TROPICAL STORM IRMA
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mi...t48hrs.gif
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08-31-2017, 06:49 AM
Post: #22
RE: TROPICAL STORM IRMA
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 32.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 32.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion is expected today and tonight, followed by a generally
westward motion on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Irma is likely to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN
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08-31-2017, 09:10 AM
Post: #23
RE: TROPICAL STORM IRMA
I have a bad feeling about this storm. Not sure what it is but I am not liking what I see so far.
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08-31-2017, 10:12 AM
Post: #24
RE: TROPICAL STORM IRMA
My local channel said this one is now a Cat 2 at the 11 AM update? Wha???
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08-31-2017, 10:25 AM (This post was last modified: 08-31-2017 10:56 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #25
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 311448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward
motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by
tonight
and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for
the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Image: clarki11latest.png]

JM


Quote: [Image: 20170831.0824.coriolis.x.37h.11LIRMA.60k....85pc.jpeg]

Cat 2 Irma Rapidly Intensifying in Eastern Atlantic; Big Long-Range Questions
Dr. Jeff Masters · August 31, 2017, 14:20



Above: Microwave satellite image of Irma at 4:24 am EDT Thursday, August 31, 2017. An eye is visible as a lighter spot in the solid ring of red that is the storm’s eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Here comes trouble. Hurricane Irma built an eyewall over the warm waters of the Eastern Atlantic on Thursday morning, and is now rapidly intensifying, becoming a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds at 11 am EDT. Irma is the fourth hurricane of this active Atlantic hurricane season, and comes three weeks before the usual September 21 date for the season's fourth hurricane. Irma appears destined to become a dangerous long-track major hurricane that could potentially impact the islands of the Caribbean as well as the mainland U.S. next week and the following week.


Satellite images on Thursday morning showed a well-organized storm with plenty of heavy thunderstorms which were increasing in intensity, and a prominent eye had appeared in both visible and infrared imagery. Irma had a respectable upper-level outflow channel to the south, and a weaker one to the north. Conditions were favorable for development, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 27.5°C (82°F)—more than 1°C above average, light wind shear of 5 -10 knots, and a moist surrounding atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity near 65%.



[Image: irma-aug31.jpg]
Figure 1: Visible satellite image of Irma at 9:45 am EDT Thursday, August 31, 2017. A prominent eye began appearing in the morning hours. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Intensity forecast for Irma

For the next five days, wind shear is predicted to be very favorable for development--a low 5 – 10 knots--according to the 12Z Thursday run of the SHIPS model. In fact, SHIPS keeps wind shear at less than 5 knots from Thursday afternoon into Saturday. Irma will begin moving into a drier region with slightly cooler sea surface temperatures beginning on Thursday night. Friday through Sunday, SSTs will be 26.5 – 27.5°C (80 - 82°F), and the mid-level relative humidity will be 50 – 55%--conditions that are less favorable for development. Since Irma has already built a solid inner core, it should be able to overcome these less favorable conditions and continue to intensify at a slow to moderate pace. If the storm can develop upper-level outflow channels to both the north and the south, faster intensification may occur.


Early next week, when Irma will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands, SSTs will warm considerably with a major increase in total heat content. The atmosphere is also predicted to be moister with low shear, so increased strengthening is likely. Four out of five of our reliable intensity models--the HWRF, LGEM, COAMPS-TC, and DSHIPS--predicted in their 6Z and 12Z Thursday runs that Irma would be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 – 135 mph winds by Tuesday. The official NHC forecast of a Category 4 hurricane in five days looks reasonable, given Irma's current rapid intensification burst.



[Image: irma-cfan-aug31.png]Figure 2. Left: The adjusted 0Z August 31, 2017 track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that have performed best with Irma thus far, as of 6Z Thursday. Right: the corresponding intensity forecast for these various model runs, with the operational European model forecast shown in red. All of the forecasts take Irma to major hurricane status at some point in the next 12 days. Irma is much stronger than the 0Z run had anticipated, so the intenisty forecast is likely underdone. Image credit: CFAN.
[Image: gfs-aug31.png]Figure 3. The 20 track forecasts from the 0Z Thursday GFS model ensemble forecast for Irma have 13 of the solutions indicating an eventual U.S. landfall as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. Irma is much stronger than the 0Z run had anticipated, so the intenisty forecast is likely underdone. Image credit: CFAN.


Track forecast for Irma

Irma will head generally west to west-northwest at about 10 mph through Friday, then assume a more west-southwesterly track early next week, as the ridge of high pressure steering the storm builds to the southwest. This would potentially bring Irma into the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday night, September 5, as predicted by the 0Z Thursday run of the European model. The 0Z and 6Z GFS model solutions were slower, predicting that Irma would make its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday night, but miss the islands, passing about 500 miles to the northeast. The 0Z Thursday run of the UKMET model split the difference between these forecasts, forecasting that Irma would pass within 200 miles of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday morning.


To get a better sense of where Irma might go, it is often helpful to look at the ensemble forecasts from the European and GFS models. These forecasts take the operational high-resolution version of the models and impose slight variations in the initial atmospheric conditions, to simulate an ensemble of potential outcomes. They are run at lower resolution, so individual ensemble members are likely to be less reliable than the operational version. The GFS model runs 20 different ensemble forecasts, and the European model runs 50. One tool that I have found valuable is to look at the “high probability cluster” of the European model—the four ensemble members that have done the best job tracking Irma over the past day. Looking at Figure 2, the high probability cluster predicts that the Caribbean and U.S. Gulf Coast might be the most at-risk areas for a landfall by Irma.


Bottom line: Climatology is in Irma's favor. We are fast approaching the average peak date of the Atlantic hurricane season (September 10) as well as the seasonal peak of African tropical waves. Moreover, SSTs are above seasonal averages across the entire tropical Atlantic. Irma is more than a week away from any possible U.S. impacts. Bear in mind that, on average, long-range hurricane forecasts beyond 7 days have very little skill when it comes to specific locations and intensities, and much could change in the coming days. The idea is not to take a particular track or strength forecast as gospel at this point, but to be aware that a major hurricane could be approaching North America in the 1- to 2-week time frame.
.
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08-31-2017, 11:05 AM
Post: #26
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
Well this doesn't look good. SST's above normal. I can't remember the last time I saw a Cat2-3 storm that far east in the Atlantic. I pray that it doesn't come anywhere near the gulf coast or we could be looking at a knock out blow for our region.
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08-31-2017, 12:36 PM (This post was last modified: 08-31-2017 12:54 PM by Squirrelmonkey.)
Post: #27
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
nope......... this one needs to start re-curving

any long range model links? i have lost all mine

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

"Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't ask anything of them." ~Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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08-31-2017, 02:05 PM
Post: #28
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
I think we will have a Cat 3 at 5PM

Location: 17.1°N 34.3°W
Maximum Winds: 100 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 5 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
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08-31-2017, 02:13 PM
Post: #29
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
(08-31-2017 02:05 PM)orion007 Wrote:  I'm very concerned for Irma and the one in the Bay of Campeche and the one off the African coast. There may be double whammy for the GOM and the East coast

I think we will have a Cat 3 at 5PM

Location: 17.1°N 34.3°W
Maximum Winds: 100 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 5 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

Retired from ASA now for some real flying
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08-31-2017, 02:40 PM
Post: #30
RE: HURRICANE IRMA
Discussion on NHC states that the central Atlantic high will build in to the north of Irma and cause her to continue moving in the west-southwest motion longer than the initial forecast. This was has me VERY worried... if she gets into the Gulf - I don't even want to think about it!

WDC 44' - 05'
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