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Cape Verde Wave
08-17-2017, 12:12 PM (This post was last modified: 08-27-2017 10:06 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #1
Cape Verde Wave
[Image: two_atl_0d0.png?171439]

[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated
with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy
data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across
portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure
located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past
24 hours. Continued gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves
north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


3. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Henson for JM


Quote: Deep Atlantic Tropics Are Bubbling: Three Systems to Watch Bob Henson · August 17, 2017, 15:32
Quote:Another strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa may develop


Yet another tropical wave with the potential to develop into a tropical depression emerged from the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning, and was located near the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday morning. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images on Thursday morning showed the large wave was in the early stages of organization, with a modest degree of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear was light to moderate, 5 – 15 knots, and ocean temperatures were warm, near 27°C (82°F). The wave was in a moist environment south of the Saharan Air Layer.


The 0Z Thursday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—showed only weak development of this system by the middle of next week, when the storm is expected to be in the waters between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Bermuda. This wave--which will presumably be labeled 93L by NHC by Friday--is likely to pass to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and will probably see its development hindered by dry air and an encounter with high wind shear associated with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) early next week. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8:00 am EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center gave this future “Invest” 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 40%, respectively.
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08-17-2017, 10:57 PM
Post: #2
RE: Cape Verde Wave (possible 93L)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands, and has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gert, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands have
changed little in organization during the past several hours.
However, only a slight increase in the organization of the shower
activity could lead to the formation of a tropical depression during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
favorable for development early next week. The low is expected
to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few
days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


2. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few
hundred miles west and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at
about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg
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08-18-2017, 07:03 AM
Post: #3
RE: Cape Verde Wave (possible 93L)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located near Barbados.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. While it would
take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical
depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are
becoming less favorable for development. The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


2. Shower activity has increased during the last 24 hours in
association with a tropical wave located over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for some development early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Beven
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08-18-2017, 12:14 PM
Post: #4
RE: Cape Verde Wave (possible 93L)
Is this an invest yet?

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08-18-2017, 12:23 PM
Post: #5
RE: Cape Verde Wave (possible 93L)
(08-18-2017 12:14 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Is this an invest yet?
Not yet....50/50 model support for whether it ever will be last I checked....
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08-18-2017, 04:18 PM
Post: #6
RE: Cape Verde Wave (possible 93L)
Henson for JM


Quote: [Image: sal-analysis-12Z-8.18.17.png]
Figure 3. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis from 11 am EDT Friday, August 18, 2017, showed that 92L was encountering dry Saharan air; a new tropical wave to watch in the Eastern Atlantic was in a moister environment. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.



Another strong tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic may develop

Another tropical wave with the potential to develop into a tropical depression was located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday morning. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves west-northwest to northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images on Friday morning showed the large wave had plenty of spin, but heavy thunderstorm activity was thin and poorly organized. Wind shear was light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures were warm, near 27°C (82°F). The wave was in a moist environment south of the Saharan Air Layer.


The 0Z Friday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—did not show development of this system by the middle of next week, but about 30% of the members of the 0Z Friday GFS and European model ensembles did develop it. This wave—which will presumably be labeled 93L by NHC by Saturday—is likely to pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands and not threaten and land areas. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 2 am EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center gave this future “Invest” 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 40%, respectively—the same odds as in the prior outlook.
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08-19-2017, 04:34 PM
Post: #7
RE: Cape Verde Wave (possible 93L)
Henson for JM


Quote: Strong tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic is no threat to land

Another tropical wave with the potential to develop into a tropical depression was located midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday morning, and was moving west-northwest to northwest at about 20 mph. Satellite images on Saturday morning showed the large wave had plenty of spin, but heavy thunderstorm activity was thin and poorly organized. Wind shear was light to moderate, 5 – 15 knots, and ocean temperatures were warm, near 27°C (82°F). The wave was beginning to encounter the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer, which was interfering with development.


As the wave heads to the northwest later in the week, it will encounter dryer air and high wind shear from a TUTT, making development unlikely. The 0Z Saturday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—did not show development of this system over the next five days, but about 20% of the members of the 0Z Saturday GFS and European model ensembles did show development. The wave is likely to pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands and not threaten and land areas. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.
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08-20-2017, 01:52 PM
Post: #8
RE: Cape Verde Wave (possible 93L)
JM


Quote: Large tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic no threat to land

Another tropical wave with a marginal potential to develop into a tropical depression was located about 1000 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday morning, and was moving northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed the large wave had plenty of spin, but heavy thunderstorm activity was thin and poorly organized. Wind shear was high, over 20 knots, and wave was embedded in the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer, which was interfering with development.


The 0Z Saturday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—did not show development of this system over the next five days. The wave will pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is likely not a threat to any land areas. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%.
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08-20-2017, 09:10 PM
Post: #9
RE: Cape Verde Wave (possible 93L)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Berg
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