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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN
08-15-2017, 11:54 AM (This post was last modified: 08-27-2017 09:54 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at 15
to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the
Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days
but should become less favorable once the system moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


2. A second area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Berg

[Image: two_atl_2d0.png]

[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]

[Image: plot20170815-1229.gif]

JM


Quote:Gert a Hurricane; 91L and 92L Disorganized
Dr. Jeff Masters · August 15, 2017, 15:18


92L, a disturbance 700 miles east of 91L, is worth watching


The elongated area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic that we were discussing on Monday split into two separate areas of low pressure that could potentially develop into tropical depressions: 91L, and a disturbance about 700 miles to its east. This disturbance (92L) was located near 13.5°N, 30°W at 8 am EDT Tuesday. Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that this eastern twin of 91L also had a limited amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity, but a respectable amount of spin. Conditions were favorable for development, with light wind shear less than 10 knots, a moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 70%, and warm SSTs of 27.5°C (82°F). The disturbance was headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. The 0Z Tuesday run of the GFS model ensemble had about 30% of its members show development into a tropical depression over the next five days, but less than 10% of the European model ensemble members showed development. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8:00 am EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. Based on the latest satellite appearance of 92L, these odds should be bumped up to 20% and 30%, respectively. 91L and 92L are close enough together that they could affect each other’s track and intensity; in particular, if 91L develops, its upper-level outflow could weaken 92L.
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08-15-2017, 07:27 PM (This post was last modified: 08-15-2017 07:28 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #2
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the
Lesser Antilles remains disorganized. This system is expected to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Some slow development
of this system is possible before it moves into the Caribbean Sea,
where environmental conditions are expected to be less conducive
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph. Upper-level winds are likely to become less favorable for
development by this weekend
.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

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08-16-2017, 07:14 AM
Post: #3
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda.

1. A low pressure system located about 900 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph,
and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive
for development during the next several days, and interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


2. A second area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of
the Cabo Verde Islands is also producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next few days before upper-level winds become less
conducive over the weekend. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Berg
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08-16-2017, 03:19 PM (This post was last modified: 08-16-2017 03:20 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #4
RE: INVEST 92L
JM


Quote:One Hurricane and 3 Tropical Waves to Watch in the Atlantic
Dr. Jeff Masters · August 16, 2017, 15:49


[Image: 92L-aug16.jpeg]
Figure 3. MODIS true-color satellite image of 92L on Wednesday morning, August 16, 2017. Image credit: NASA.


92L looks a lot like 91L


A tropical wave (92L) was located about 700 miles east of 91L, near 14°N, 35°W, at 8 am EDT Wednesday. Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed that this eastern twin of 91L looked very similar, with a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that showed a modest amount of spin and organization. Conditions were favorable for development, with light wind shear less than 10 knots, a moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 65%, and warm SSTs of 27°C (82°F). The disturbance was headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. More than 70% of the members of the 0Z Wednesday GFS and European model ensembles showed development of 92L into a tropical depression over the next five days, though the operational version of these models did not. The UKMET model predicted development early next week, though. The 12Z Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 92L would encounter high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots on Friday and Saturday, which would likely put the brakes on development. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8:00 am EDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30% and 40%, respectively. 91L and 92L are close enough together that they could affect each other’s track and intensity; in particular, if one develops significantly, its upper-level outflow could weaken the other.
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08-16-2017, 07:15 PM
Post: #5
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


2. A second area of low pressure is located about 950 miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Brown
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08-17-2017, 07:03 AM
Post: #6
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated
with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy
data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across
portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


2. Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure
located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past
24 hours. Continued gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves
north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Beven
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08-17-2017, 12:08 PM
Post: #7
RE: INVEST 92L
Henson for JM


Quote:Deep Atlantic Tropics Are Bubbling: Three Systems to Watch Bob Henson · August 17, 2017, 15:32
Quote:[Image: PTC9-92L-ir-1530Z-8.17.17.jpg]
Figure 2. Infrared GOES-16 satellite image of PTC 9 (left) and tropical wave 92L (right) as of 1530Z (11:30 am EDT) Thursday, August 17, 2017. GOES-16 data are preliminary and non-operational. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Branch.

92L headed towards The Bahamas


A tropical wave (92L) was located about 700 miles east of 91L, near 15°N, 42.5°W, at 8 am EDT Thursday. Satellite images on Thursday morning showed that this eastern twin of 91L was not quite as developed, with a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that showed a modest amount of spin and organization. Conditions were favorable for development through Friday morning, with light wind shear less than 10 knots, a moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity near 60%, and warm SSTs of 27.5°C (82°F). The disturbance was headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and will pass a few hundred miles north of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday. If 92L is well enough developed, northern portions of Hispaniola may receive heavy rains from 92L beginning on Sunday night, and this activity will reach the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Monday. A continued west-northwest motion for 92L is expected into the middle of next week, with heavy rains from the system affecting eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas on Tuesday, and reaching the northwestern Bahamas and Florida on Wednesday.


The 0Z Thursday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—showed only weak development of this system over the next five days, though the 0Z Thursday runs of the GFS and European model ensembles had more than 50% of their members predict development. The 12Z Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 92L would encounter high wind shear near 20 knots associated with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) to its north on Friday and Saturday, which would likely put the brakes on development. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8:00 am EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 60%, respectively.


PTC 9 and 92L are close enough together that they could affect each other’s track and intensity. In particular, if one develops significantly, its upper-level outflow could weaken the other. In addition, the Fujiwhara effect could kick in while the two systems are within about 800 miles of each other. This would tend to add a northward component to 92L’s motion and a westward component to PTC 9’s motion, as there would be a rotational aspect of motion around a point in between the two systems.

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08-17-2017, 07:31 PM
Post: #8
RE: INVEST 92L
[Image: 20170817.2345.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.92LINVES....100pc.jpg]
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08-17-2017, 10:56 PM
Post: #9
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands, and has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gert, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands have
changed little in organization during the past several hours.
However, only a slight increase in the organization of the shower
activity could lead to the formation of a tropical depression during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
favorable for development early next week. The low is expected
to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few
days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few
hundred miles west and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at
about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Berg
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08-18-2017, 07:01 AM
Post: #10
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located near Barbados.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. While it would
take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical
depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are
becoming less favorable for development
. The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Shower activity has increased during the last 24 hours in
association with a tropical wave located over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for some development early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Beven
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