Post Reply 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN
08-27-2017, 09:56 PM (This post was last modified: 08-27-2017 10:18 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #21
RE: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South
Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
31.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is currently stationary.
A slow northward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by
a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the system will move slowly toward the South
Carolina coast tonight and Monday. The system is forecast to
move near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and along the
North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday.

Satellite wind data and buoy observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday.
The system is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
gradually become better organized, and the low is likely to become
a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area Monday night through Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN



=========================


000
WTNT35 KNHC 280232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 80.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 30.5 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is currently
stationary. A slow and erratic motion is forecast through early
Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move near the
Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Monday and move along
the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday. The
cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday.

A wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h) has recently been reported at NOAA's
Gray's Reef buoy off the Georgia coast.

Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain organized, but the center of circulation
is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition
of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical
cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

JM

Quote:[Image: ptc10-aug27.jpg] 92L Becomes Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten off the Coast of Georgia
Dr. Jeff Masters · August 28, 2017, 00:30





Above: Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 5:30 pm CDT Sunday, August 27, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB. GOES-16 data are considered preliminary and non-operational.

A Tropical Storm Watch is posted for portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, thanks to the increasing development of an area of low pressure (formerly called 92L) located about 135 miles south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina at 8 pm EDT Sunday. This system was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (PTC 10) by NHC on Sunday afternoon. Satellite images on Sunday evening showed that PTC 10 had a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was gradually becoming more organized, but high wind shear of 35 - 45 knots was hindering development. The system was stationary on Sunday evening, but is expected to move to the northeast on Monday and Tuesday, very close to the Southeast U.S. coast. PTC 10 will bring heavy rains of 2 – 4” and rough surf to the coast of South Carolina on Monday, and to North Carolina and Virginia by Tuesday. The best chances for development into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm may come on Monday evening, when wind shear is expected to drop to 25 - 30 knots, according to the 0Z Monday run of the SHIPS model. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 pm EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave PTC Ten 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 90%. The storm is unlikely to gain sustained winds any higher than 45 mph as a tropical or subtropical cyclone, and will merge with a cold front and move to the northeast, out to sea, on Wednesday.
.

What is a "potential tropical cyclone?


Excerpt from - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_pa...hanges.pdf



In 2017, NHC will have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed. Advances in forecasting over the past decade or so, however, now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage. For these land-threatening “potential tropical cyclones”, NHC will now issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical cyclones.
.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)