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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN
08-18-2017, 04:16 PM
Post: #11
RE: INVEST 92L
92L headed towards The Bahamas


Tropical wave 92L was located about 750 miles east-northeast of northern Lesser Antilles Islands, near 17°N, 50°W, at 8 am EDT Friday. Satellite images on Friday morning showed that 92L had changed little in organization since Thursday, with a large blob of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and some modest low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow. However, 92L was clearly struggling with dry air ingestion, as seen by arc-shaped low-level cumulus clouds that were racing to the northwest ahead of the storm. When the thunderstorms of a tropical disturbance ingest a large amount of dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere, the resulting strong downdrafts rob the storm of moisture and hit the ocean surface with a lot of momentum, kicking up arc-shaped bands of cumulus clouds as the downdraft spreads out along the ocean surface.


Conditions were marginal for development on Friday morning, thanks to moderately high wind shear of 15 – 20 knots from a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) located to the north of 92L. This trough was also pumping dry air into 92L’s circulation. Mid-level relative humidity was 60%, which was adequate for development, and 92L had warm SSTs of 28°C (82°F) to work with. The disturbance was headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and will pass a few hundred miles north of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday. If 92L is well enough developed, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern portions of Hispaniola may receive heavy rains from 92L on Sunday, and this activity will reach the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday night. A continued west-northwest motion for 92L is expected into early next week, with heavy rains from the system potentially affecting eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday, and potentially reaching the northwestern Bahamas and Florida by Tuesday afternoon.


There was very little model support for the development of 92L with the 0Z Friday cycle of model runs. None of the operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—developed the system, and only about 20% of the 70 members of the 0Z Friday GFS and European model ensembles showed 92L developing into a tropical depression. None of them showed 92L developing into a tropical storm. The 12Z Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 92L might find a more favorable environment for development by Sunday, when the system should move far enough from the shearing winds of the TUTT to see a reduction in wind shear. If the global models are correct, though, 92L will be too disorganized to develop early next week. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 2 pm EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 60%, down from 70% in the previous outlook. The first hurricane hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday, if necessary.
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08-19-2017, 04:32 PM
Post: #12
RE: INVEST 92L
Henson for JM


Quote: [Image: viz-92L-1615Z-8.19.17.png]
Figure 3. Invest 92L as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 10:15 am EDT Saturday, August 19, 2017. 92L was struggling with dry air ingestion, and had a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.





92L weaker as it heads towards The Bahamas

Tropical disturbance 92L was located about 300 miles east-northeast of northern Lesser Antilles Islands, near 20°N, 58°W, at 8 am EDT Saturday, and was headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Satellite images on Saturday morning showed that the appearance of 92L had significantly degraded since Friday, with a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and little evidence of low-level spiral banding or upper-level outflow. 92L continued to struggle with dry air ingestion, as seen by arc-shaped low-level cumulus clouds moving outwards from 92L’s heavy thunderstorms. When the thunderstorms of a tropical disturbance ingest a large amount of dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere, the resulting strong downdrafts rob the storm of moisture and hit the ocean surface with a lot of momentum, kicking up arc-shaped bands of cumulus clouds as the downdraft spreads out along the ocean surface.


Conditions were marginal for development on Saturday morning, thanks to moderately high wind shear of 15 – 20 knots from two Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs)--one located a few hundred miles northeast of 92L, and one located a few hundred miles northwest of 92L. The trough to the northwest was pumping dry air into 92L’s circulation, keeping the mid-level relative humidity a very dry 45%, which is unfavorable for development. 92L did have warm SSTs of 28.5°C (83°F) to work with, though. The disturbance will pass a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico on Sunday, and moisture associated with 92L will bring heavier-than-usual showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern portions of the Dominican Republic on Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. A continued west-northwest motion for 92L is expected through Wednesday, with heavy rains from the system spreading into eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday, and into the northwestern Bahamas and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.


There was little model support for the development of 92L with the 0Z Saturday cycle of model runs. None of the operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—developed the system, and fewer than 10% of the 70 members of the 0Z Saturday GFS and European model ensembles showed 92L developing into at least a tropical depression. The 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 92L might find a more favorable environment for development beginning on Sunday, though, when the system might move into a region between the two TUTTS to its north, allowing wind shear to fall to the low range, 5 – 10 knots. Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 – 15 knots, Sunday through Wednesday. However, the atmosphere surrounding 92L will be dry through at least Tuesday, with a mid-level relative humidity near 50%. The best chance for 92L to develop may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the system will likely encounter a moister environment near Florida. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 40%, respectively. The first hurricane hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Monday afternoon.
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08-20-2017, 01:50 PM
Post: #13
RE: INVEST 92L
JM


Quote: [Image: 92L-aug20.jpg]
Figure 1. Invest 92L as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, August 19, 2017. 92L was struggling with dry air ingestion, and had a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.


92L disorganized as it heads towards The Bahamas

Tropical disturbance 92L was located about 300 miles north of Puerto Rico, near 22°N, 67°W, at 8 am EDT Sunday, and was headed west-northwest at 20 mph. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed 92L had a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. No surface circulation was apparent, and 92L was poorly organized, with only limited upper-level outflow. The system continued to struggle with dry air ingestion, as seen by arc-shaped low-level cumulus clouds moving outwards from 92L’s heavy thunderstorms. When the thunderstorms of a tropical disturbance ingest a large amount of dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere, the resulting strong downdrafts rob the storm of moisture and hit the ocean surface with a lot of momentum, kicking up arc-shaped bands of cumulus clouds as the downdraft spreads out along the ocean surface.


Conditions were marginal for development on Sunday morning, thanks to moderate wind shear of 10 knots, combined with a very dry surrounding air mass with a mid-level relative humidity of 45%. 92L did have warm SSTs of 29°C (84°F) to work with, though. The disturbance will bring a few heavy rain showers to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern portions of the Dominican Republic on Sunday afternoon. A continued west-northwest motion for 92L is expected through Wednesday, with heavy rains from the system spreading into eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday, and into the northwestern Bahamas and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.


None of the 0Z Sunday operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—developed the system through Tuesday afternoon. However, conditions for development will steadily improve this week. 92L’s environment will get moister, and wind shear is expected to be mostly in the moderate range, 10 – 15 knots, according to the 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model. By Tuesday night, when the mid-level relative humidity is predicted to rise to 55%, we may see some development of 92L, and the 0Z Sunday run of the UKMET model predicted that 92L would become a tropical depression over the northwestern Bahamas, a few hundred miles east of Florida, on Tuesday night. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. I think the 5-day odds to development should be higher, at 30%. Late in the week, 92L will likely get entangled with a trough of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, and move to the northeast, out to sea.
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08-20-2017, 09:09 PM
Post: #14
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


2. A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Berg
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08-21-2017, 06:34 AM
Post: #15
RE: INVEST 92L
Need to keep a close eye on this one
Quote: 2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend southeastward
toward Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or
so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward
the northern Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become
a little more conducive for development later in the week when the
system is near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western
Atlantic or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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08-21-2017, 06:35 AM
Post: #16
RE: INVEST 92L
......


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08-21-2017, 04:00 PM (This post was last modified: 08-21-2017 04:03 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #17
RE: INVEST 92L FL /GOM threat
Most of the models bring this into the GOM!


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08-21-2017, 04:02 PM
Post: #18
RE: INVEST 92L
[Image: storm_92.gif]

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08-21-2017, 08:46 PM (This post was last modified: 08-21-2017 09:01 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #19
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and
the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near
Florida and the adjacent waters
.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211600
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 21 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/1200Z
B NOAA9 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 22/1730Z C. 23/0900Z
D. NA D. 20.0N 92.0W
E. NA E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


2. SUSPECT AREA (IN THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 22/1130Z A. 22/2330Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. NOAA2 0210A CYCLONE
C. 22/0745Z C. 22/2200Z
D. 26.0N 79.0W D. 27.0N 80.0W
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1430Z E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1130Z D. 27.5N 80.2W
B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE E. 23/1100Z T0 23/1430Z
C. 23/0815Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY IF SYSTEM REGENERATES.
B. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES FOR SUSPECT AREA IF IT DEVELOPS.

4. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON HARVEY AND SUSPECT AREA DETAILED ON
TCPOD 17-081 ALL CANCELED BY 21/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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08-22-2017, 08:14 PM (This post was last modified: 08-22-2017 08:15 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #20
RE: INVEST 92L
JM

Quote:Dr. Jeff Masters · August 22, 2017, 13:56



92L disorganized over The Bahamas
Tropical disturbance 92L was located near the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday morning. Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that 92L had almost no heavy thunderstorm activity and very little organization. The system may have better chances of development this weekend, when it is expected to be moving to the northeast, away from the U.S. coast. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 30%, respectively.
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