Post Reply 
HURRICANE HARVEY
08-18-2017, 03:20 PM
Post: #21
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
(08-14-2017 10:21 AM)Kelly_Jernigan Wrote:  Just maybe we will have something to watch this week and next week? Is it too soon to ask for a nice rainmaker for South Texas???

Again, too soon to ask for a Texas rainmaker?
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-18-2017, 04:06 PM (This post was last modified: 08-18-2017 04:13 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #22
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
[Image: 204351_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 182035
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night
.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Henson for JM


Quote: [Image: harvey-ir-1700Z-8.18.17-835px.jpg]

Harvey Buffets Windward Islands En Route to Caribbean

Bob Henson · August 18, 2017, 17:35


Above: Infrared GOES-16 satellite image of Tropical Storm Harvey as of 1700Z (1 pm EDT) Friday, August 18, 2017. GOES-16 data are preliminary and non-operational. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Branch.


Even as a minimal tropical storm (top sustained winds of 40 mph), Tropical Storm Harvey rocked parts of the Windward Islands with high surf, gusty winds, heavy rain, and flooding. As of 11 am EDT Friday, Harvey was located about 15 miles south-southwest of St. Vincent and about 50 miles south-southwest of St. Lucia. Both of those islands experienced the stronger northwest side of the storm. Harvey’s center also passed just south of Barbados, where flooding has been reported, including in the Speightstown area of northern Barbados (see embedded tweet below, via Eric Blake).
Quote:More flooding in the north of the island #Barbados @weatherchannel @bbcweather pic.twitter.com/yOwq5LZ9nl
— Barbados We Love (@BarbadosWeLove) August 18, 2017

[Image: harvey-radar-1345Z-8.18.17.png]
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Harvey as seen in a mosaic of radar data from Guadelope and Martinique at 1345Z (9:45 am EDT) Friday, August 18, 2017. The most intense rains, which passed over Barbados early Friday, were about to move westward out of St. Lucia at the time of this display. Image credit: Meteo France.


Given Harvey’s minimal strength, it’s not surprising that winds have been on the mild side. Here are some peak winds from the passage of Harvey through the Windward Islands on Friday morning:
Martinique: sustained winds of 29 mph, gusting to 44 mph, at 10 AST
St. Lucia: sustained winds of 23 mph, gusting to 43 mph, at 9:18 AST
Barbados: 24 mph sustained winds at 8 am AST


Wind shear has kept Harvey’s strongest showers and thunderstorms (convection) displaced to the west of the storm center, so most of the heaviest rains preceded the arrival of Harvey’s center. The storm is moving west at a fairly rapid clip, about 21 mph, and conditions across the Windward Islands were improving rapidly by midday Friday. Meanwhile, Harvey was continuing to expand its upper-level outflow and its shield of strong convection, an impressive sign of strength in the face of persistently strong wind shear and midlevel dry air (see below).





Outlook for Harvey


Harvey should steer clear of land areas for the next couple of days as it charges quickly westward. Computer models are in strong agreement that Harvey will traverse the entire Caribbean through the weekend. The major track question is how far north or south Harvey will be by the time it reaches land.

  • If the track remains on the south side of model guidance (as suggested by the 0Z Friday UKMET run and most members of the GFS ensemble run), then Harvey will likely track along or near the Honduras coast on Monday and arrive in Belize around Tuesday.
  • If Harvey stays toward the north side of guidance (as indicated by most members of the European model ensemble from 0Z Friday, and by the operational GFS run from 12Z Friday), it would remain just north of Honduras and would make landfall late Monday or Tuesday in Belize, or perhaps the Yucatan coast of Mexico.

Harvey will continue to battle strong wind shear of 15-20 knots from the northeast and north through Saturday. This will keep the storm’s convection somewhat asymmetric and inject dry air into the storm, so it is unlikely Harvey will strengthen dramatically, although some intensification is quite possible. Around Sunday, models indicate a brief window of reduced wind shear, and midlevel relative humidities should jump from around 45-50% to 70% or more. Together with very warm waters (sea surface temperatures of 29-30°C, or 84-86°F), this will give Harvey a window of potential for more rapid strengthening before it reaches Central America. None of the GFS or European ensemble members from 0Z Friday made Harvey a hurricane before landfall—nor did the 0Z and 6Z Friday runs of the HWRF, our top intensity model. Nevertheless, Harvey bears close watching for any signs of strengthening more quickly than models expect, especially on Sunday.


Harvey’s post-landfall future depends greatly on the angle of its track early next week. The more northerly European model solutions—including the 0Z Friday operational run—indicate that Harvey could get pulled northwestward through the western Gulf of Mexico, while the 0Z Friday GFS ensemble members and operational run keep Harvey moving west-northwest across the southern Bay of Campeche and into the east coast of central Mexico, similar to the track of Hurricane Franklin earlier this month. The more northward solutions would give Harvey a better chance of intensifying in the Gulf, and potentially affecting the western Gulf Coast a week or more from now; the southward solutions imply very heavy rainfall across parts of southern Mexico and Central America.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-19-2017, 04:27 PM (This post was last modified: 08-19-2017 04:28 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #23
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
Henson for JM



Quote:[Image: viz-harvey-1530Z-8.19.17-835px.jpg]
Wind Shear Rips into Tropical Storm Harvey
Bob Henson · August 19, 2017, 16:59





Above: Visible-wavelength GOES-16 image of Tropical Storm Harvey at 1530Z (11:30 am EDT) Saturday, August 19, 2017. Northwesterly wind shear is blowing the tops off of Harvey’s showers and thunderstorms, as seen in the tendrils extending southeastward from the disorganized storm. GOES-16 data are preliminary and non-operational. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA @ CSU.
Time has not been kind to Tropical Storm Harvey, which entered the Caribbean as a minimal tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane Hunters were unable to find a closed circulation within Harvey at the 850 mb level (about a mile high) on Saturday morning. Because a closed circulation was found near the surface, the National Hurricane Center kept Harvey classified as a tropical storm at 11 am EDT Saturday. That may be generous, as no winds above tropical-storm strength (35 knots) were found at flight level by the Hurricane Hunters. Continuity may be a factor in keeping Harvey a tropical storm, since it is likely to move into a more nurturing environment later this weekend.





[Image: radar-aug19-750px.jpg]
Figure 1. Radar image showing the disorganized rain showers of Tropical Storm Harvey at 11:10 am EDT August 19, 2017. Lightning strikes are shown as black squiggles. Image credit: Meteorological Department of Curacao.


Located about 125 miles north-northeast of Curacao at 11 am EDT Saturday, Harvey was racing westward at 22 mph. Harvey’s envelope of convection (showers and thunderstorms) had become much more fragmented and elongated, a byproduct of the storm’s rapid motion coupled with persistently strong wind shear of 20-25 knots. It is possible Harvey will be stretched to the point where it loses its closed surface circulation and becomes an open wave by late Saturday. Assuming Harvey survives till Sunday, it will be moving into the western Caribbean, where wind shear is predicted by the 12Z Saturday SHIPS model to drop to the 5-10 knot range. Mid-level relative humidity should increase from around 50% to greater than 70%. This will give Harvey a much more supportive environment for strengthening. Sea-surface temperatures will remain quite warm along Harvey’s path, around 29°C (84°F)—roughly 0.5°C above average. These warm waters are quite deep, providing ample oceanic heat content to enhance strengthening if Harvey does remain a tropical cyclone.


The leading global models are in fairly good agreement on Harvey’s general track over the next 3-5 days, but subtle shifts could make a big difference in Harvey’s strength and long-term future. Most of the ensemble members from the 0Z Saturday runs of the GFS and European models take Harvey near or just north of the Honduras coast on Monday, with a landfall late Monday or Tuesday in Belize or Mexico along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A few ensemble members bring Harvey into far northern Nicaragua or eastern Honduras, in which case Harvey would likely weaken and might never reach the Yucatan. The official NHC forecast from 11 am EDT Saturday tracks Harvey into Belize as a strong tropical storm on Tuesday morning.



[Image: gefs-6Z-8.19.17-54hr-mslp.jpeg]
Figure 2. Central pressure of Harvey at 8:00 am EDT Monday, August 21, as projected by the 6Z Friday run of the GFS ensemble modeling system. Each pair of red numerals denotes the location of Harvey’s center and the last two digits of Harvey’s central surface pressure, in millibars. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.


The bulk of track guidance brings Harvey into the southern Bay of Campeche by midweek. Although it would be a weak tropical storm at best by that point, Harvey would get another chance to reintensify. It may also be tugged northward by a weak upper-level trough that will move west across the Gulf of Mexico next week. As a result, Harvey’s track could angle more to the northwest with time, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. This slowdown and the uncertainty in steering flow add a great amount of uncertainty to Harvey’s future should it reach the western Gulf later next week.
.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-20-2017, 08:42 AM (This post was last modified: 08-20-2017 08:50 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #24
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone
once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today
.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of
Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of
days, but they could become slightly more conducive for development
by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or
Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated
with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in
a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore,
tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181644
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT FRI 18 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-079 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 74
A. 19/2000Z A. 19/2330Z
B NOAA2 0409A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0509A HARVEY
C. 19/1800Z C. 19/2130Z
D. 13.8N 69.2W D. 14.0N 71.1W
E. 19/1930Z TO 20/0030Z E. 19/2300Z TO 20/0230Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 75
A. 20/0800Z A. 20/1130Z
B NOAA2 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 20/0600Z C. 20/0900Z
D. 14.2N 73.0W D. 14.3N 75.0W
E. 20/0730Z TO 20/1230Z E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY AT 20/2330Z NEAR 14.5N 78.0W.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 20/1800Z NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO
NEAR 21.5N 66.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-20-2017, 01:47 PM (This post was last modified: 08-20-2017 02:38 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #25
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
JM

Quote: [Image: harvey-aug20.jpg]


Ex-Harvey May Regenerate; 92L Still Disorganized

Dr. Jeff Masters · August 20, 2017, 15:08



The Eastern Caribbean is a notorious graveyard for aspiring tropical cyclones, and it claimed another victim on Saturday afternoon, when Tropical Storm Harvey met its demise. On Friday, Harvey buffeted the Windward Islands as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, dumping up to 8 inches of rain on Barbados, where some flood damage was reported. But high wind shear near 20 mph, combined with the accelerating east-to-west blowing trade winds that Harvey was embedded in, were sufficient to rip the storm apart on Saturday in the Eastern Caribbean.


However, ex-Harvey is likely to regain tropical storm status at some point in the week as it heads west to west-northwest through the Western Caribbean, across the Yucatan Peninsula, then into the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that Harvey was beginning to reorganize, with a decent-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that were increasing in intensity and organization. Wind shear was moderate, 10 – 15 knots, the atmosphere had a not-terrible-for-development mid-level relative humidity of 55 – 60%, and the ocean was warm, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C (83°F.) An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate the system on Sunday afternoon to see if a closed surface circulation is forming.


The atmosphere will grow moister and the SSTs will grow warmer as ex-Harvey progresses to the west. None of the 0Z Sunday operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—developed the system before it made landfall on Tuesday morning in Belize. However, the UKMET and European model predicted development of ex-Harvey back into Tropical Storm Harvey by Wednesday, when the storm is forecast to be in the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche. The 0Z and 6Z Sunday runs of the GFS model predicted that ex-Harvey would stay farther to the south and not have enough time over the Bay of Campeche to do much development. About half of the European ensemble members from 0Z Sunday, and about a third of GFS ensemble members, revive Harvey to tropical storm strength over the Bay of Campeche. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Harvey 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 60%, respectively. Regardless of development, northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico can all expect very heavy rains in excess of four inches from ex-Harvey, which will likely cause dangerous flooding and mudslides.
.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
showing some signs of organization in association with the remnants
of Harvey, but it is still unclear if the system has a closed
circulation. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it
could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves
west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, and into the Bay
of Campeche by midweek. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
currently enroute and should provide a better assessment of the
structure of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-20-2017, 04:18 PM
Post: #26
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
420 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on
the remnants of Harvey.

1. Updated: An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the remnants of Harvey found that the system still
lacks a well-defined center of circulation, and so far there is no
indication of winds to tropical storm force
. Satellite images
indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have changed
little in organization since earlier today. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once
again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea
, near the northern coast of Honduras, during the next
day or two. The system is expected to reach Belize or the Yucatan
Peninsula on Tuesday, and then move into the Bay of Campeche by the
middle of the week, where redevelopment appears more likely
.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-20-2017, 09:08 PM
Post: #27
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Berg
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-21-2017, 08:07 AM
Post: #28
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey,
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some
development of this system is still possible before it reaches
the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The
disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early
Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more
conducive for redevelopment. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across
northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula
during the next couple of days. The Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft mission scheduled for today has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-21-2017, 08:48 PM (This post was last modified: 08-21-2017 09:02 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #29
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling
at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday
where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and
the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near
Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Avila

[Image: plot20170821-2111.gif]


[Image: clarki9latest.png]

[Image: 20170822.0019.f18.x.geoir.09LHARVEY.25kt...W.59pc.jpg]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211600
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 21 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/1200Z
B NOAA9 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 22/1730Z C. 23/0900Z
D. NA D. 20.0N 92.0W
E. NA E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (IN THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 22/1130Z A. 22/2330Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. NOAA2 0210A CYCLONE
C. 22/0745Z C. 22/2200Z
D. 26.0N 79.0W D. 27.0N 80.0W
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1430Z E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1130Z D. 27.5N 80.2W
B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE E. 23/1100Z T0 23/1430Z
C. 23/0815Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY IF SYSTEM REGENERATES.
B. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES FOR SUSPECT AREA IF IT DEVELOPS.

4. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON HARVEY AND SUSPECT AREA DETAILED ON
TCPOD 17-081 ALL CANCELED BY 21/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-22-2017, 08:21 AM
Post: #30
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
This could easily bring a foot of rain for parts of Texas !!!

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)