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HURRICANE HARVEY
08-16-2017, 03:17 PM
Post: #11
RE: INVEST 91L
JM


Quote: One Hurricane and 3 Tropical Waves to Watch in the Atlantic
Dr. Jeff Masters · August 16, 2017, 15:49


[Image: sal-aug16.jpg]Figure 2: The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis from 8 am EDT Wednesday, August 16, 2017, showed that 91L was encountering dry Saharan air; 92L was in a moister environment. A new tropical wave to watch had just emerged from the coast of Africa. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.


91L struggling with dry air


A tropical wave located near 14°N, 47°W in the central tropical Atlantic at 8 am EDT Wednesday (Invest 91L), remains disorganized, but has the potential to develop into at least a tropical depression late this week as it moves westward at about 15 – 20 mph. Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed that 91L had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, though the disturbance had acquired a bit more organization and spin since Tuesday. Wind shear was moderate, 10 – 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures were a warm 28°C (82°F)--about 0.5°C to 1°C above average for this time of year. The atmosphere surrounding 91L had dried since Tuesday, with relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere as analyzed by the SHIPS model at 50%, down from 60% on Tuesday morning. This drier air was interfering with development.


Forecast for 91L


Conditions appear adequate for development through this weekend, though the atmosphere surrounding 91L will be dry (a mid-level relative humidity of 45 - 55%). Wind shear is predicted to be mostly moderate, 10 – 15 knots, through Sunday, and sea surface temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F).
The 0Z Wednesday runs of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European, and UKMET models—all predicted 91L would develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Friday, when the storm will be moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands. Substantial support for development was also being provided by the ensemble forecasts from the GFS and European models, which had more than 50% of their 70 members predicting development. However, none of these forecasts had 91L developing into a hurricane, and 91L will likely meet less favorable conditions for development in the Eastern Caribbean. That region is climatologically unfavorable for tropical cyclone development, due to high surface pressures caused by a regime where the surface trade winds accelerate and cause widespread sinking air. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8:00 am EDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 91L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30% and 40%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 91L on Thursday afternoon.

.
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08-16-2017, 07:13 PM
Post: #12
RE: INVEST 91L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday
, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A second area of low pressure is located about 950 miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Brown
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08-17-2017, 07:01 AM (This post was last modified: 08-17-2017 11:11 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #13
RE: INVEST 91L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated
with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy
data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across
portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon
.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure
located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past
24 hours. Continued gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves
north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Beven

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161355
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 16 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 17/1800Z A. 18/1130Z, 1730Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 17/1515Z C. 18/0930Z
D. 13.7N 54.5W D. 13.7N 59.5W
E. 17/1730 TO 17/2230Z E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT
19/1130Z NEAR 14.2N 66.2W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

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08-17-2017, 11:07 AM (This post was last modified: 08-17-2017 12:05 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #14
RE: TD # 9
[Image: 144536_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 171439
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For
Martinique.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday
.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before
reaching the Windward islands
.

If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a
tropical cyclone later today or tonight
. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



What is a "potential tropical cyclone?


Excerpt from - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_pa...hanges.pdf



In 2017, NHC will have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed. Advances in forecasting over the past decade or so, however, now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage. For these land-threatening “potential tropical cyclones”, NHC will now issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical cyclones.
.

Henson for JM


Quote:Deep Atlantic Tropics Are Bubbling: Three Systems to Watch Bob Henson · August 17, 2017, 15:32




Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 heading toward Caribbean

The NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center launched advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (formerly Invest 91) on Thursday morning. As we discussed back in June, the new PTC designation allows for more detailed guidance on systems that are not yet at depression strength but that have a chance of intensifying and bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Potential tropical cyclones are assigned numbers as part of the same chronological list that includes tropical depressions.


At 11 am EDT Thursday, PTC 9 was located about 365 miles east of Barbados, moving west at about 17 mph. Our top computer models for track forecasting are in very strong agreement that PTC 9 will continue westward, taking it through the Lesser Antilles late Friday, across the eastern and central Caribbean over the weekend, and into the western Caribbean by Monday. There is no reason to doubt the model consensus, especially given that any track interaction between PTC 9 and the system to its east, Invest 92L (see below), would tend to keep PTC 9 moving westward. The official NHC forecast makes PTC 9 a tropical storm by Friday morning. The next name on the Atlantic list is Harvey.


The ASCAT scatterometer has not made a pass directly over PTC 9 for the last few hours, so it has been unable to provide us with recent wind data on the system. A Hurricane Hunter flight will explore the area on Thursday afternoon, at which point we will see if PTC 9 has the closed low-level circulation needed to classify it as a tropical depression (or tropical storm).


Ahead of PTC 9, a tropical storm warning was in effect Thursday morning for Martinique, St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a tropical storm watch was in effect for Dominica.



Long-term outlook for PTC 9

PTC 9 has maintained a solid core of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms (convection) since Wednesday night and has a modest amount of spin. Easterly vertical wind shear of around 15 knots has kept most of the convection focused on PTC 9’s west side. This shear is predicted to continue until around Sunday, when it may drop below 10 knots. The wind shear is injecting dry air into PTC 9, with mid-level relative humidities averaging around 50%, but as the shear lessens, the environment around PTC 9 will be moistening from Sunday onward. Sea surface temperatures are more than warm enough for development along PTC 9’s path, running at 28-29°C (84-86°F), or about 0.5°C above average for this time of year.


If PTC 9 can keep the ill effects of wind shear and dry air at bay, it should be able to at least hold its own while moving across the eastern Caribbean, a region often hostile to tropical development because of predominant sinking air and strong trade winds. However, ensemble forecasts from Wednesday night suggest that PTC 9 may not make it through the central Caribbean. More than 60% of the European model ensemble members from 0Z Thursday, and more than 90% of the GFS members, bring PTC 9 to tropical storm strength, but the majority of both ensembles call for PTC 9 to weaken or dissipate Monday in the central Caribbean. Of our top three track models, only the UKMET takes PTC 9 into the western Caribbean as a robust tropical cyclone.


Assuming that PTC 9 makes it to the moist, low-shear environment of the western Caribbean, there will be a higher chance of more rapid strengthening early next week. The system will encounter higher oceanic heat content as it continues west, adding further credence to the potential for strengthening once wind shear decreases. The official NHC outlook issued at 11 am EDT Thursday brings PTC 9 to minimal hurricane strength by Monday morning into Tuesday. It is certainly possible that PTC 9 will become stronger than that if it survives its weekend trek.


At this point, it is too soon to know which land areas might be affected by PTC 9 next week. Only a slight shift in the overall westward track would make the difference between PTC 9 striking Nicaragua or the Yucatan Peninsula.
.
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08-17-2017, 04:04 PM (This post was last modified: 08-17-2017 04:21 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #15
RE: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 20:47Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Tropical Depression: Nine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:20:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°54'N 55°51'W (12.9N 55.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 253 statute miles (407 km) to the E (93°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,483m (4,865ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 0 nautical miles (0 statute miles) to the E (90°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 68° at 36kts (From the ENE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) which was observed 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) from the flight level center at 19:50:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 250° at 26kts (From the WSW at 30mph)


[Image: 205349_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]



000
WTNT34 KNHC 172047
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 55.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 55.8 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
to the north of the center
.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171447
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT THU 17 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-078 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76
A. 19/1130Z
B AFXXX 03DDA CYCLONE
C. 19/1000Z
D. 13.9N 66.7W
E. 19/11000 TO 19/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON CARIBBEAN SYSTEM.
B. PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 19/1800Z NEAR 19.5 59.5W
(NE OF PUERTO RICO)

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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08-17-2017, 05:11 PM
Post: #16
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
5pm

Quote: 000
WTNT44 KNHC 172048
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined
circulation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles,
with the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection.
The aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt
and that the central pressure is near 1004 mb. Based on these
data, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey.

The initial motion is 270/16. There is no change to the forecast
philosophy since the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the
north of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west
through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the
system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the
western Caribbean by 96-120 h. One adjustment is that the 96-120 h
points have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in
the guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on
the previous forecast. The forecast track again lies near the
center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through at least 72 h. The conflicting forecast scenarios
alluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and
LGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and
ECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over
the central Caribbean. The new intensity forecast again follows the
trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of
the guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h
intensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track
showing more land interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.0N 55.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.1N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 13.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 13.7N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 17.0N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

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08-17-2017, 06:13 PM
Post: #17
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
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08-17-2017, 08:45 PM
Post: #18
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
[Image: plot20170817-2111.gif]

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08-17-2017, 10:54 PM
Post: #19
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
000
WTNT34 KNHC 180230
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...HARVEY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should
move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Friday
.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center
.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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08-18-2017, 06:58 AM
Post: #20
RE: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
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