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HURRICANE GERT
08-13-2017, 09:38 PM (This post was last modified: 08-13-2017 10:01 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #21
RE: TROPICAL STORM GERT
000
WTNT43 KNHC 140233
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Gert continues to gradually become better organized on satellite
imagery. A large curved band feature has formed in the eastern
semicircle, with very deep convection. It still appears the center
is on the northwest side of the convection, somewhat displaced to
the north of the mid-level center. Intensity estimates are a little
higher than the last advisory, so the wind speed is raised to 40 kt.
Gert should remain in a light-to-moderate northerly wind shear
environment for the next couple of days, with anomalously warm SSTs
and increasing mid-level moisture in the forecast path. Almost all
of the historically reliable guidance now show Gert becoming a
hurricane in a couple of days under these moderately favorable
conditions
, and so does the official forecast. The latest NHC
prediction is raised from the previous one but remains below the
model consensus, closest to the LGEM model. Gert should rapidly
weaken as it undergoes extratropical transition in 3-4 days over the
cold north Atlantic waters.


Gert is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt on the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge. A northward turn is expected
on Monday while the system rounds the western side of the ridge, and
Gert is expected to be about midway between Bermuda and North
Carolina on Tuesday. After that time, a progressively faster motion
to the northeast and east-northeast is forecast as the system
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates
in about 5 days. The guidance has shifted a little bit to the west
after recurvature, so the official forecast is moved in that
direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 28.8N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 30.0N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 31.6N 72.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 33.6N 71.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 36.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 41.0N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 48.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Image: gert-aug13.jpg]

Above: Tropical Storm Gert as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 5:45 pm EDT August 13, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB

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08-14-2017, 08:29 AM (This post was last modified: 08-14-2017 08:35 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #22
RE: TROPICAL STORM GERT
[Image: 2017AL08_1KMSRVIS_201708141300.GIF]

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08-14-2017, 10:10 AM (This post was last modified: 08-14-2017 10:24 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #23
RE: TROPICAL STORM GERT
000
WTNT33 KNHC 141437
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...GERT GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...SWELLS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 72.2W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 72.2 West. Gert is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast for the
next 48 h.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Gert
is expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will begin to affect portions
of the coast of North Carolina and Virginia later today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Image: 20170814.1226.f17.x.geovis.08LGERT.50kts...W.34pc.jpg]
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08-14-2017, 03:07 PM
Post: #24
RE: TROPICAL STORM GERT
JM


Quote: [Image: gert-aug14.jpg]
Figure 2. Tropical Storm Gert as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 10:45 am EDT August 14, 2017. At the time, Gert had top sustained winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.





Tropical Storm Gert forms, but is not a threat to land

Tropical Storm Gert formed on Sunday afternoon in the Atlantic waters between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Bermuda, becoming the seventh named storm of the season. Gert is not expected to be a threat to any land areas. The seventh named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs, on average, on September 16, so we’ve seen a lot of early-season activity this year. The record earliest seventh Atlantic named storm was 2005’s version of Tropical Storm Gert, which got its name on July 24 of that year.


Satellite images on Monday morning showed that Gert’s heavy thunderstorm activity had increased in intensity and organization, but was mostly confined to the southeast side of the center of circulation, thanks to strong upper level winds out of the north that were creating a moderate 15 knots of wind shear. Gert was embedded in an environment of dry air with a relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 50%, and the strong upper-level winds were pushing this dry air into the northern portion of the storm, limiting development of thunderstorms on that side. Sea surface temperatures of 29°C (84°F) were favorable for development.



Forecast for Gert

The 12Z Monday SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over Gert would mostly be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, through Wednesday morning, which should allow at least modest intensification. The official NHC forecast from 11 am EDT Monday calls for Gert to become a hurricane by Wednesday morning, and so does our top intensity model, the HWRF, although it is unlikely that Gert will attain the major-hurricane status predicted by HWRF for several runs. By Wednesday night, Gert will begin encountering very high levels of wind shear above 30 knots, which should convert the storm to a hurricane-strength extratropical storm on Thursday. The models are in excellent agreement in a track arcing to the north then northeast this week, taking Gert midway between North Carolina and Bermuda, then out to sea well south of the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
.
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08-14-2017, 04:15 PM
Post: #25
RE: TROPICAL STORM GERT
000
WTNT33 KNHC 142046
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...GERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 72.3W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 72.3 West. Gert is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion should
continue tonight. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed is expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Gert
is expected to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to
Long Island during the next couple of days. Swells are also
expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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08-14-2017, 10:38 PM (This post was last modified: 08-14-2017 11:30 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #26
RE: HURRICANE GERT
000
WTNT33 KNHC 150236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...GERT BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 72.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 72.3 West. Gert is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to
Long Island during the next couple of days. Swells are also
expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Image: plot20170814-2255.gif]

[Image: clarki8latest.png]

[Image: 2017AL08_SRSNPPDV_201708141716.png]
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08-15-2017, 07:17 AM (This post was last modified: 08-15-2017 07:23 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #27
RE: HURRICANE GERT
[Image: 083934_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

[Image: 2017AL08_SRSNPPDV_201708150719.png]

[Image: 20170815.1145.goes13.x.vis1km_high.08LGE....100pc.jpg]
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08-15-2017, 12:02 PM (This post was last modified: 08-15-2017 12:05 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #28
RE: HURRICANE GERT
JM


Quote:[Image: gert-aug15.jpg]

Gert a Hurricane; 91L and 92L Disorganized
Dr. Jeff Masters · August 15, 2017, 15:18




Above: Hurricane Gert as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 10:45 am EDT August 15, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.


Hurricane Gert achieved Category 1 hurricane status on Monday afternoon in the Atlantic waters between North Carolina and Bermuda, becoming the second Atlantic hurricane of the 2017 season. Gert is not expected to be a threat to any land areas. The second hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs, on average, on August 28, so we are about two weeks ahead of average for that statistic.


Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that Gert had a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye, though moderate wind shear of about 15 knots was stretching out the hurricane from north to south. Gert was embedded in an environment of dry air with a relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 50%, and the strong upper-level winds were pushing this dry air into the northern portion of the storm, limiting intensification. Sea surface temperatures of 28.5°C (83°F) were favorable for development.


[Image: gert-ir-1557Z-8.15.17.jpeg]
Figure 1. Infrared GOES-16 image of Hurricane Gert as of 11:57 am EDT August 15, 2017. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Branch. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.


Forecast for Gert

The 12Z Tuesday SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over Gert would mostly be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, through Wednesday morning, which should allow at least modest intensification. Our top dynamical intensity models, the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and the new HMON model (the replacement for the old GFDL model), all predicted in their 6Z Tuesday runs that Gert would undergo a period of rapid intensification through Wednesday afternoon, peaking as a major Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. However, our best statistical intensity models, the DSHIPS and LGEM, were more restrained, predicting that Gert would maintain Category 1 strength, reaching a peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Wednesday afternoon. Given the dry air surrounding Gert and the continued presence of moderate levels of wind shear, the official NHC forecast follows the less aggressive intensity forecast models, with the 11 am EDT Tuesday NHC advisory calling for Gert peak as an 85 mph Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, Gert will begin encountering very high levels of wind shear above 30 knots, which should convert the storm to a hurricane-strength extratropical storm by Friday. The models are in excellent agreement in a track arcing to the northeast this week, taking Gert out to sea well south of the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
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08-15-2017, 03:19 PM
Post: #29
RE: HURRICANE GERT
[Image: 20170815.2000.goes13.x.vis1km_high.08LGE....100pc.jpg]
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08-15-2017, 07:23 PM (This post was last modified: 08-15-2017 07:30 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #30
RE: HURRICANE GERT
000
WTNT33 KNHC 152033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

...GERT A LITTLE STRONGER AND MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 71.2 West. Gert is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and it is
expected to accelerate northeastward over the northwestern Atlantic
Ocean during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected
during the next day or so
. Weakening should begin by Thursday when
Gert moves over colder water.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to
Long Island during the next couple of days, with the first impacts
expected tonight. Swells are also expected to affect Bermuda
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Image: 20170815.2345.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.08LGERT.....100pc.jpg]
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