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TROPICAL STORM EMILY
07-30-2017, 09:17 AM (This post was last modified: 07-31-2017 07:36 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #1
TROPICAL STORM EMILY
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this broad
disturbance is possible over the next several days while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a dissipating
frontal boundary over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the
next day or so, and then move eastward across the Florida peninsula
into the western Atlantic by midweek. Any development should be
slow to occur due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds and
proximity to land. However, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days. Please see additional
information from your local National Weather Service Forecast
Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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07-30-2017, 02:26 PM (This post was last modified: 07-30-2017 02:46 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #2
RE: Gulf / Florida possible development
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this
broad disturbance is possible over the next several days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has developed over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of
Apalachicola, Florida. Upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics tonight and Monday before it moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and into the western Atlantic
by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the low is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and
northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. Please see
additional information from your local National Weather Service
Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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07-30-2017, 07:16 PM (This post was last modified: 07-30-2017 07:18 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #3
RE: Invest 98L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small non-tropical low pressure area located about 140 miles west
of Tampa, Florida, is producing a limited area of thunderstorm
activity as it drifts southeastward. This system has some chance
to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics on Monday before
it moves inland over the central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and
into the western Atlantic by Wednesday. Regardless of development,
the low is expected to enhance locally heavy rainfall across
portions of central and northeastern Florida during the next couple
of days. Please see additional information from your local National
Weather Service Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A tropical wave located roughly midway between west Africa and the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized shower activity. Any development of this system
is expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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07-31-2017, 07:37 AM (This post was last modified: 07-31-2017 07:44 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #4
RE: TROPICAL STORM EMILY
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Emily, located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico just offshore of the west-central Florida coast.

1. Shower activity remains limited in association with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow
to occur over the next several days while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Emily are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Emily are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Cangialosi

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07-31-2017, 08:01 AM
Post: #5
RE: TROPICAL STORM EMILY
Where the heck did this come from ?

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07-31-2017, 08:01 AM
Post: #6
RE: TROPICAL STORM EMILY
8AM

TNT41 KNHC 311152
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Emily Special Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This Special Advisory is to upgrade the depression to Tropical
Storm Emily, now located just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A Tropical
Storm Warning has also been issued for a portion of the west-
central coast of Florida.

Doppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate
average velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation
center between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a
standard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent
surface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily. Little change in strength is
expected until landfall occurs this afternoon, followed by slow
weakening as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.

The initial motion estimate is 095/07 kt. There is no change to the
previous forecast track or reasoning. Emily is expected to make
landfall along the west-central Florida coast within the warning
area by late afternoon, and then continue eastward across the
central Florida peninsula tonight, emerging off of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. However, an isolated waterspout will also be
possible in the coastal waters within the warning area.

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the standard
Intermediate Public advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1200Z 27.7N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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07-31-2017, 11:15 AM
Post: #7
RE: TROPICAL STORM EMILY
(07-31-2017 08:01 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Where the heck did this come from ?

Literally spun up overnight out of a low laden with disorganized storms - actually moved southeasterly before taking current track

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07-31-2017, 12:26 PM (This post was last modified: 07-31-2017 12:32 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #8
RE: TROPICAL STORM EMILY
000
WTNT61 KNHC 311510
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Emily Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
1110 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...TROPICAL STORM EMILY MAKES LANDFALL ON ANNA MARIA ISLAND...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that Tropical Storm Emily made landfall at 1045 AM EDT (1445 UTC)
on Anna Maria Island, just west of Bradenton, Florida.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NW OF BRADENTON FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

JM


Quote: [Image: emily-sat.jpg]

Tropical Storm Emily Making Landfall Near Tampa Bay
Dr. Jeff Masters · July 31, 2017, 15:16



Above: Tropical Storm Emily making landfall south of Tampa, Florida as seen by the experimental GOES-16 satellite imagery at 11:32 am EDT July 31, 2017. Image credit: College of DuPage.


Well, that was fast. NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that Tropical Storm Emily made landfall with peak sustained winds of 45 mph at 10:45 AM EDT (1445 UTC) Monday on Anna Maria Island, just west of Bradenton, Florida. Emily spun into life on Monday morning at 8 am EDT just off the Gulf Coast of Florida. Emily’s formation came just 48 hours after receiving no mention at all as a possible threat in the National Hurricane Center’s 8 am Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. Emily erupted along the Gulf of Mexico portion of a cold front that had pushed over Florida during the weekend, and took full advantage of very warm water temperatures near 30°C (86°F). Development was not expected due to high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots, plus very dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere, where the relative humidity was near 45%. Emily formed so quickly and unexpectedly that the Hurricane Hunters never flew into the storm. It is very unusual for a named storm to make landfall in the U.S. without the Hurricane Hunters ever sampling the storm.


[Image: emily-landfall.gif]Figure 1. Tropical Storm Emily near the time of landfall in the Tampa Bay, Florida region, at 11:23 am EDT July 31, 2017, as seen by the Tampa radar.


Top winds from Emily on Monday morning from buoys in the Tampa Bay area were 39 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 10:42 am EDT at the Middle Tampa Bay buoy. Heavy rains are the main threat from Emily, and an Areal Flood Watch is posted for much of Central Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, for 3 – 6” of rain. Storm surge damage from Emily will be minimal; the storm surge peaked at around 1 foot in Tampa Bay around 11 am EDT, and was 1.3 feet at Fort Myers at 11:30 am.



Forecast for Emily


The forecast for Emily is very straightforward, with the models agreeing on a path across Central Florida Monday afternoon and evening, then into the waters off the east coast of Florida by Tuesday morning. Passage over Florida will reduce Emily to a tropical depression tonight, but the storm should be able to regain tropical storm status over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream by Tuesday night. However, Emily will be several hundred miles offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast Tuesday and Wednesday, with the core of the storm’s heavy rains staying well out to sea.



Emily’s place in history


Emily’s formation date of July 31 comes a full month before the average August 31 date of the season’s fifth named storm. The record earliest appearance of the season’s fifth named storm came on July 11, 2005, from a storm also named Emily. The 2017 version of Emily will be the second tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. this year; Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall in Southwest Louisiana on June 22, bringing heavy rains, sustained winds of 45 mph, and a peak storm surge of 4 feet. Cindy killed two and caused less than $5 million in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield.



Quiet elsewhere in the Atlantic


A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Cabo Verde Islands on Monday morning, was being given 5-day odds of development of 10% by NHC in their 8 am Monday Tropical Weather Outlook. Satellite images on Monday morning showed that dry air was keeping heavy thunderstorm activity to a minimum with this tropical wave, as it headed west to west-northwest at 10 – 15 mph. The 0Z Monday runs of our top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, UKMET and European models—did not show development of this wave over the coming five days, and the 70 ensemble members of the GFS and European models showed very limited support for development, mostly because of dry air.


The European model was more bullish on developing a tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa on Wednesday night. The 0Z Monday run of the model predicted development occurring early next week in the Central Atlantic, as the wave moved west towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 12Z Monday run of the GFS model also supported this idea, but it is too early to assign a probability of development.
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