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Invest 96L
07-18-2017, 07:13 AM (This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 07:19 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #1
Invest 96L
NHC is watching a second area that has some small potential to spin up to depression level before it dies in the dust


[Image: two_atl_0d0.png?181154]

[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located east-southeast of Barbados.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a low
pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is
possible through mid-week while it moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Don are issued under WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Don are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Landsea


JM


Quote: Another Atlantic tropical wave to watch
A tropical wave located at 8 pm EDT Monday in the middle tropical Atlantic, about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, was headed west-northwest to northwest at 10 - 15 mph. This wave has a marginal potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week.
Satellite images on Monday evening showed that the wave was disorganized, with little spin and only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Development was being retarded by dry air, thanks to a presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) just to the north. Wind shear was moderate, around 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm enough for development, near 28°C (82°F)--about 1°F above the seasonal norm.
There is model support for development of this wave—over 40% of the 70 members of the 12Z Monday European and GFS model forecasts predicted that the wave would develop into a tropical depression later this week. However, none of these forecasts showed the storm surviving long enough to affect any land areas, as the system is predicted to enter a region with unfavorable conditions for development late this week--in the waters between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Bermuda. In their 8 pm EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of tropical cyclone development of 20% and 30%, respectively.

[Image: plot20170718-0814.gif]
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07-18-2017, 08:11 PM (This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 08:18 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #2
RE: Invest 96L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located just to the east-southeast of Grenada.

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a low
pressure system located over 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or two while it moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

JM

Quote: Another tropical wave in the central Atlantic
A large but poorly organized tropical wave was rolling through the central tropical Atlantic at around 37°W latitude on Tuesday. This wave could develop into a tropical depression or perhaps a weak tropical storm over the next couple of days, but the European and GFS model ensembles agree that any development would be snuffed out by dry air and wind shear after 3 or 4 days, while the system remains far out in the Atlantic. In its outlook Tuesday morning, the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center gave 30% odds of this system becoming at least a tropical depression by Friday and 40% odds by Sunday.
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07-19-2017, 06:59 PM
Post: #3
RE: Invest 96L
On the 2pm EDT TWO and gone on the 8pm TWO.....
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