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TROPICAL STORM CINDY
06-17-2017, 07:57 PM (This post was last modified: 06-20-2017 12:55 PM by Alex.)
Post: #1
Exclamation TROPICAL STORM CINDY
JM

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Windwards, Gulf of Mexico Watching Two Tropical Waves
Bob Henson · June 17, 2017, 21:44

It’s not every June 17 that we have two potential tropical storms to monitor in the Atlantic basin. The NWS/NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean as Invest 93L on Saturday, which kicks off the process of tracking and forecasting the wave in greater detail. The newly christened 93L joined Invest 92L, which continues to slowly organize in the central tropical Atlantic.

As of 2:00 pm EDT, the center of low pressure associated with 93L was located over the Gulf of Honduras just north of the coastline, moving slowly northwest. The broad circulation of 93L is a good example of a Central American gyre, a weak, sprawling cyclone that can deliver torrential rains and lead to catastrophic flooding. A gyre-analysis page from Philippe Papin (SUNY Albany) shows that the the circulation of 93L extends across Central America to the Pacific. Papin reported on Saturday that 93L satisfies the criteria for a Central American gyre that he and colleagues recently developed. Each year typically brings one or two of these gyres, most often in May-June or September-November.


It can be difficult for a gyre-type circulation to consolidate into a more compact tropical cyclone, since it takes a long time to get such a large mass of air spinning more rapidly. However, guidance from multiple models has been quite consistent for several days in bringing 93L to at least tropical depression strength after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula later this weekend and moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. In its 2:00 pm outlook, NHC gives 93L a 30% chance of becoming at least a depression by Monday and an 80% chance by Thursday, an increase from near-0% and 60% in yesterday morning’s outlook.

Once it enters the Gulf, 93L will have a reasonable shot at becoming a tropical storm—either Bret or Cindy, depending on the timing and evolution of 92L (see below). Sea surface temperatures are as much as 1°C above average in the Bay of Campeche, but up to 1°C below average in the north central Gulf. This means the usual north-to-south temperature gradient is a bit stronger than usual. The SSTs will range from 26.5°C to 29°C (80 – 84°F), which is adequate for tropical cyclone development, especially toward the south. 93L will experience increasing southerly wind shear as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, which should serve as a brake on any rapid intensification.


Extremely heavy rains may accompany 93L inland

Models agree that 93L is unlikely to become a hurricane, but the system is large and moist and will be capable of producing extremely heavy rain. There remains considerable disagreement on where this potential depression or tropical storm will track. The ECWMF and its ensemble members have been fairly consistent in tracking 93L over or around the Yucatan Peninsula and toward the western Gulf, where it would make landfall in South Texas or Mexico. The 12Z Saturday ECMWF run brings the center near Brownsville on Thursday, most likely as a weak tropical storm.

The GFS has shown less internal consistency, but it has tended to track 93L toward the central Gulf Coast, in response to a more vigorous upper-level trough in the GFS moving through the eastern U.S. The 12Z Saturday run of the GFS brings 93L inland near Mobile, AL, after several days of slow motion just offshore. A slowdown in forward speed would be plausible given the departure of the eastern trough and the weakening of steering currents. If 93L does move as gradually as shown by the GFS, we can expect torrential rains—perhaps 10” to 20”—somewhere along the central Gulf Coast, regardless of whether 93L is a wave, depression, or named storm. Likewise, torrential rain could be expected over South Texas if the ECMWF is correct, although the amounts would probably be less than for the GFS track given that 93L would likely be moving at a more steady clip around the intense dome of high pressure producing record heat in the Southwest U.S.

Starting tonight, we will get regular guidance from the HWRF model for 93L, which should help clarify where the system is heading next week and how strong it might be. Residents along the Caribbean coast of Belize and Mexico, as well as western Cuba, should be prepared for very heavy rainfall over the next 48 hours.

http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/201...7-2013.gif

[Image: plot20170617-2013.gif]
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06-17-2017, 11:15 PM
Post: #2
RE: INVEST 93L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Some development of this system is possible during the
next few days before environmental conditions become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move
to the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward
Islands and northeastern South America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while
it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday
and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico early next week,
where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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06-18-2017, 06:46 AM
Post: #3
RE: INVEST 93L
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images...orm_93.gif

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06-18-2017, 07:11 AM
Post: #4
RE: INVEST 93L
Code red 90% now and sorry about the forum issues . I will work on them later today Smile

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06-18-2017, 07:40 AM
Post: #5
RE: INVEST 93L
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while
it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula later
today and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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06-18-2017, 01:14 PM
Post: #6
RE: INVEST 93L
2PM

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad low
pressure area is centered near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles
to the east and northeast of the center. However, the low lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, and the Hurricane Hunter mission
scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. Gradual development
is expected while the low moves slowly north-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over portions of Central America, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary. For more information on this system, please see the
High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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06-18-2017, 02:49 PM
Post: #7
RE: INVEST 93L
Alabamawx

TROPICAL MISCHIEF: An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate the disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon with another plane scheduled for overnight tonight. The morning run of the GFS shows a steadily developing low pressure system forming later today northeast of the Yucatan and plodding northeastward toward Louisiana. The system stalls over Southeast Louisiana Wednesday and Thursday and eventually comes northeast of Friday, bringing us more rain.

It doesn’t look like the system will be able to become a hurricane, with decent wind shear across the northern Gulf, but it could become a tropical storm. If it does it will be Bret or Cindy. The uncertainty is because there is another system about 1000 miles east south of the Lesser Antilles that could become a tropical cyclone as well. It should reach the islands late Tuesday. An Air Force Plane will investigate tomorrow. My money is on the Gulf system being Bret.

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06-18-2017, 02:53 PM
Post: #8
RE: INVEST 93L
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181717
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EDT SUN 18 JUNE 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-018

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF TRINIDAD)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 19/1500Z C. 20/0300Z
D. 9.0N 56.0W D. 10.5N 60.0W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2130Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 19/2000Z A. 20/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 19/1800Z C. 20/0930Z
D. 23.0N 88.5W D. 24.5N 90.0W
E. 19/1930Z TO 19/2330Z E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON FIRST SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS AND
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SECOND SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS.
4. REMARK: ALL MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 17-017 CANCELED BY
NHC AT 18/1335Z.
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06-18-2017, 07:41 PM
Post: #9
RE: INVEST 93L
8pm

A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several
hundred miles to the east and northeast of the center. Although
surface pressures are falling over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
the low still lacks a well-defined center of circulation. However,
gradual development of this system is expected while it moves
slowly north-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula overnight,
and then over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected to continue over
portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system on Monday, if necessary. For more information on this
system, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical
Analysis and Forecast Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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06-18-2017, 08:19 PM
Post: #10
RE: INVEST 93L
[Image: al932017.png]

Should be enhanced rainfall for much of the Gulf Coast. What's left of the Florida drought should be eliminated, if it has not been already with all the recent rains.

AARoads
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