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Bay of Campeche ?
06-12-2017, 04:12 PM
Post: #1
Bay of Campeche ?
any thing going on down there?
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06-13-2017, 07:46 AM
Post: #2
RE: Bay of Campeche ?
(06-12-2017 04:12 PM)weller1 Wrote:  any thing going on down there?


Local Houston weather stations are predicting some kind of depression by the end of this week.

HOUSTON (KTRK) --
"A patch of tropical moisture moving in from the Gulf will bring scattered downpours today and tomorrow, but Meteorologist Travis Herzog says strong wind shear will prevent a tropical weather system from developing. While no tropical formation is expected over the next five days, the Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched next week.

Travis says a larger area of deep tropical moisture will move into the Gulf early next week, and for the past 5 days, computer models have been suggesting low pressure may spin up over the warm waters. We'll keep an eye on it in case anything does materialize after Father's Day."


You can see it, and the vid here.
http://abc13.com/weather/no-storms-expec...ek/899820/
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06-15-2017, 01:51 PM (This post was last modified: 06-15-2017 01:54 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #3
RE: Bay of Campeche ?
JM


Quote: [Image: two-5day-6.15.17.jpg] Odds Increasing for a Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storm Next Week
Dr. Jeff Masters · June 15, 2017, 15:05


Above: Probability that a tropical cyclone will form within the shaded regions over the next five days (between 8:00 am EDT Thursday, June 15, and Tuesday, June 20, 2017). Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC.

The odds are increasing that the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean will see formation of a tropical depression early next week. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 5-day odds of tropical cyclone development of 50% for this region, up from the 20% odds given on Wednesday morning.

Satellite loops on Thurday morning showed a steady increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean, as a large low pressure system called a “gyre” of low pressure began to form (see the website of SUNY Albany’s Phil Papin, who has developed automated routines to diagnose these gyres). This gyre is expected to move slowly west-northwest to northwest, and will be centered near the east coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The interaction between this gyre and a tropical wave expected to move into the region this weekend may be enough to trigger formation of a tropical depression by early next week. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Tropical Storm Bret.

The 0Z Thursday runs of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—continued to advertise the potential for a tropical cyclone to form. These models have been very persistent in this forecast during the week, giving confidence that such a storm will indeed form. With ocean temperatures in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico about about 1°C (1.8°F) above average, at 29.5°C (85°F), along with wind shear that is predicted to be moderate, conditions will be ripe for development--if the area of low pressure manages to center itself over the water. There is plenty of land in the region to potentially interfere with development, though, and high wind shear may be an issue for the storm later in the week. The large size of the gyre will make it difficult for this system to intensify quickly, since it takes a long time to get such a large mass of air spinning more rapidly. None of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble or 50 members of the European ensemble from the 0Z Thursday runs of these models predicted that the storm would ever reach hurricane strength.

[Image: precip-gfs-jun15.png]Figure 1. Predicted total precipitation between 2 am EDT Thursday, June 15, and 8 am EDT Tuesday, June 20, from the 6Z June 15 run of the GFS model. Regardless of development of the predicted low pressure gyre over the Yucatan Peninsula into a tropical depression, the large size of the low and the abundant moisture that will feed it from both the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific (including the remnants of Tropical Storm Calvin), will generate very heavy rains that will cause flooding and landslide concerns in portions of Central America and Southern Mexico beginning this weekend; rainfall amounts of over six inches (red colors) are predicted in Guatemala, Honduras and Southern Mexico. Note, also, the rainfall from the tropical wave predicted to arrive in the southern Lesser Antilles Islands and northern coast of South America early next week. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

The eventual track of the potential storm next week is most likely to be to the west-northwest or northwest, with the primary threat to land being along the Gulf of Mexico coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. However, the GFS model predicted in its 6Z Thursday run that the northern portion of the low pressure gyre could end up being a center of action for a tropical depression to form, which would pull a lot of mositure northwards along the west coast of Florida. This might cause flooding rains along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and western Florida late next week. The models do not have much skill doing track forecasts so far into the future, though, and there is considerable uncertainty about which scenario may end up happening.
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06-15-2017, 06:43 PM
Post: #4
Lightbulb RE: Bay of Campeche ?
CMC is up to it's aggressive ways again:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...=Animation

Crazy Dale
The nine scariest words in the english language: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." -Ronald Reagan
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06-16-2017, 02:01 PM (This post was last modified: 06-16-2017 02:02 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #5
RE: Bay of Campeche ?
JM


Quote: Gulf of Mexico in line for potential storm next week

A sprawling tropical wave in the western Caribbean is taking its time organizing. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed heavy thunderstorm activity continued over the Western Caribbean, as a large low pressure system called a “gyre” of low pressure began to form (see the website of SUNY Albany’s Phil Papin, who has developed automated routines to diagnose these gyres). This gyre is expected to move slowly west-northwest to northwest, and will be centered near the east coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.The interaction between this gyre and a tropical wave expected to move into the region this weekend may be enough to trigger formation of a tropical depression by early next week. However, the large size of the gyre will make it difficult for this system to intensify quickly, since it takes a long time to get such a large mass of air spinning more rapidly. NHC has raised the odds of development into a depression over the next five days from 50% yesterday to 60% today, but the odds of development over the next two days are near zero.



[Image: midjune-TC-gen-points.jpg]Figure 2. A total of 29 named storms developed in the Atlantic between June 11 and 20 in Atlantic records extending from 1851 to 2015. Not shown is Tropical Storm Danielle, which formed in the Bay of Campeche on June 20, 2016. Image credit: NHC.

Climatology favors the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico for development in June (see Figure 2 above). With ocean temperatures about 1°C (1.8°F) above average, at 29.5°C (85°F), along with wind shear that is predicted to be moderate, conditions will be ripe for development--if the area of low pressure manages to center itself over the water. There is plenty of land in the region to potentially interfere with development, though, and high wind shear may be an issue for the storm later in the week.


A wide range of potential landfall locations
Our best models for tropical storm genesis—the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET—have been in impressive agreement for several days that the Western Caribbean wave will eventually become a tropical cyclone. Of the 0Z Friday ensembles, about 80% call for a tropical depression by Wednesday, and roughly half bring the system to tropical storm strength. None of the ensemble members bring the system to hurricane strength, although we can’t rule out that possibility just yet.

Where the system ends up going once it’s in the Gulf will hinge on the interaction early next week between an upper-level low pressure trough moving through the eastern U.S. and a very strong ridge of high pressure developing in the Southwest. If the trough moves more slowly, it would increase the odds of a landfall toward the central Gulf Coast, as depicted by the 06Z run of the GFS model (see Figure 3 below), whereas a faster trough motion could allow ridging to steer the system toward the Texas or Mexican coast. Any landfall on the Gulf Coast would likely be no sooner than midweek.


Jeff Masters co-authored this post.
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06-16-2017, 07:02 PM
Post: #6
RE: Bay of Campeche ?
Sudduth update for 6/16 if you're interested...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_qI8GY6...e=youtu.be
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