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MAJOR HURRICANE NICOLE
10-04-2016, 10:01 AM (This post was last modified: 10-13-2016 08:47 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
MAJOR HURRICANE NICOLE
...

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10-04-2016, 03:51 PM (This post was last modified: 10-06-2016 12:57 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #2
HURRICANE NICOLE
5pm
Quote: ROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since earlier today.
All of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle
of the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly
strong northwesterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 45
kt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data. Nicole
is likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next
several days, which should eventually result in weakening. The
official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance.

The tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
Nicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of
days, to the southwest of a mid-level high. Later in the forecast
period, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and
this would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days. The
official track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction.
This is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few
days, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast
period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 24.1N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 29.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 30.0N 63.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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10-06-2016, 12:57 PM
Post: #3
RE: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE
HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

This is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane.
The system's cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this
morning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images. The
intensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt. Since
the hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional
strengthening seems likely. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to
increase to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that
time. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2
models thereafter.

Little or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous
regular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged.
Steering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to
24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next
several days.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 27.9N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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10-13-2016, 08:47 AM
Post: #4
RE: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE
wow

Quote: [b]8:00 AM AST Thu Oct 13[/b]

Location: 31.6°N 65.2°W

Moving: NNE at 15 mph

Min pressure: 953 mb

Max sustained: 125 mph

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10-13-2016, 11:32 AM
Post: #5
RE: MAJOR HURRICANE NICOLE
...EYE OF NICOLE PASSING OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 64.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
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