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HURRICANE MATTHEW
09-30-2016, 04:42 PM
Post: #31
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
whoop there it is

Quote: HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Matthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate
today. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a peak
SFMR wind of 116 kt and flight-level winds of 121 kt. A recent
dropsonde from the aircraft indicated that surface winds are around
120 kt. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to
120 kt, an increase of 55 kt in the last 24 hours. The latest
pressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since
this time yesterday.

Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours or
so, and the NHC forecast reflects that possibility, showing 125 kt
at that time. Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance
thus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible
this could be conservative. Since Matthew has now become a major
hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would lead to
some fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After 12 hours, a
gradual weakening is shown, following the trend of, but above nearly
all of the intensity guidance. Land interaction with Cuba should
lead to additional weakening by day 4, but Matthew is expected to
remain a strong hurricane through the forecast period.

The initial motion is still toward the west-southwest, but the
forward speed has slowed a bit, to around 8 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed, with Matthew expected to turn westward by
12 hours and then gradually turn toward the north in the next 3 to 4
days as the cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
The track model guidance is in slightly better agreement this cycle
through 3 days, although the ECMWF remains right of and slower than
the rest of the guidance at days 4 and 5. The GFS, HWRF, and
COAMPS-TC are faster and to the left late in the period, although
the GFS has trended slower this cycle. The new NHC track has again
been adjusted a little to the left through 72 hours given the
initial position and motion, and after that time is along the
previous official forecast but slower, following the slower trend in
the guidance this cycle. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model
consensus at days 4 and 5.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.5N 71.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.3N 72.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 13.5N 73.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.2N 75.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 18.2N 76.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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09-30-2016, 05:27 PM (This post was last modified: 09-30-2016 05:44 PM by pcbjr.)
Post: #32
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Don't write off SE Fla yet ....

One more thing to throw into the mix - Cleo 1964 .... just sayin'

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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09-30-2016, 09:02 PM
Post: #33
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Hello?

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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09-30-2016, 09:55 PM
Post: #34
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
(09-30-2016 09:02 PM)pcbjr Wrote:  Hello?

Hello sure is quiet Tongue

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09-30-2016, 10:04 PM
Post: #35
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Cat 5

Quote: HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.
Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably
with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since
2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to
140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain
a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the
reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum
winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur
soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given
that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some
weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a
category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern
Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of
Cuba. It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid
strengthening of Matthew.

Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt
steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic.
In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of
the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and
then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very
consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate
much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast
period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track
models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing
the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely
the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 13.3N 72.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.3N 73.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.7N 74.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.6N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 76.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 23.1N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
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09-30-2016, 10:05 PM (This post was last modified: 09-30-2016 10:06 PM by pcbjr.)
Post: #36
Big Grin RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
(09-30-2016 09:55 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  
(09-30-2016 09:02 PM)pcbjr Wrote:  Hello?

Hello sure is quiet Tongue
Quiet - For a Cat 5 that no one is real sure where he'll take himself -

Steering currents be damned - he's got a mind of his own now ... Huh

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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09-30-2016, 10:31 PM
Post: #37
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Do storms of this magnitude usually make that sharp of a turn? I understand about the high and the trough but, it sure looks like a sharp right turn and then straight north will be a little difficult.
Just curious.
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10-01-2016, 01:05 AM
Post: #38
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
I don't mean to wish cast and maybe the technology has finally gotten that good. But I seem to remember that bigger storms make their own rules and go where they want to. Am I wrong ? I for one living on the Alabama Gulf Coast hope they are right and this thing goes East. If not we could have a big problem.
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10-01-2016, 02:55 AM (This post was last modified: 10-01-2016 03:05 AM by SevereWxEnthusiast.)
Post: #39
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
they do kind of make thier own environment as far as sustaining itself, but they are still susceptable to standard factors like water temps, shear, and dry air. Here's the kicker, the stronger the storm, the MORE they are influenced by steering forces from areas of high and low pressure.
i'm not sure what year it was but major hurricane Wilma was forecasted to take a similar sharp turn. I was skeptical at the time, but sure enough it took a nearly 90 degree turn and followed the forecast. so it is certainly possible.

Crazy Dale
The nine scariest words in the english language: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." -Ronald Reagan
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10-01-2016, 07:45 AM
Post: #40
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
[b]8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 1[/b]

Location: 13.4°N 73.1°W

Moving: W at 7 mph

Min pressure: 947 mb

Max sustained: 155 mph
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