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HURRICANE MATTHEW
10-08-2016, 11:33 AM
Post: #361
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
[Image: recon_AF302-3814A-MATTHEW.png]

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10-08-2016, 11:56 AM
Post: #362
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
[Image: aal14_2016100812_track_early.png]

[Image: aal14_2016100812_intensity_early.png]

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10-08-2016, 01:38 PM
Post: #363
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Extensive surge damage at Edisto Beach, SC ... (@bergeron09)
Palmetto Road Edisto Beach,SC @chswx @ABCNews4 @Live5News @SEisbergWCIV @JimCantore @weatherchannel @FoxNews pic.twitter.com/NJUFxkdkPn



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10-08-2016, 02:07 PM
Post: #364
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Retweeted Brad Panovich (@wxbrad):

Springmaid Pier has collapsed in Myrtle Beach the sensor there is now gone with it. #Matthew #scwx https://t.co/OaKmD7F8W7
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10-09-2016, 06:05 AM
Post: #365
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
5AM

Quote: 0
WTNT44 KNHC 090855
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

Satellite and radar imagery indicate that Matthew has become a
post-tropical cyclone, with the closest deep convection now located
more than 150 nmi north and northeast of the exposed low-level
center. Despite this change in structure, surface observations
across eastern North Carolina and an earlier ASCAT pass indicate
that strong winds persist northwest through southwest of the
center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission completed
earlier this morning also indicated that hurricane-force winds
were occuring southwest of the center, so the initial intensity
is being maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. Surface
observations indicate that a cold front should overtake Matthew's
center shortly, resulting in extratropical transition. The global
and regional models forecast Matthew to slowly weaken over the next
48 hours, and that trend has been followed in the official
intensity forecast. In the 48-72 hour time period, Matthew's
circulation is expected to dissipate within the frontal system.

A combination of satellite and radar imagery, aircraft data, and
coastal surface observations indicate that Matthew is moving 065/12
kt. Matthew is now fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly
flow, and this deep-layer steering pattern is expected to move the
cyclone east-northeastward and away from the coast of North
Carolina today. An eastward motion is expected by tonight and
should continue until Matthew dissipates in 48 hours or so. The new
NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous track and lies
close to a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS solutions.

Recent observations and the forecast strength of the band of winds
over the eastern North Carolina coastal area requires maintaining
the Hurricane Watch. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of
Virginia are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
continue to shift to the west side of the circulation. The winds
are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of
eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during
the next 6 to 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane
force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of
storm surge in these areas. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk.

2. Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 34.9N 75.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 09/1800Z 35.2N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/0600Z 35.4N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1800Z 35.9N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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10-09-2016, 11:23 AM
Post: #366
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Retweeted Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue):

Rainfall from Hurricane #Matthew in trillions of gallons during last 3 days (Table: https://t.co/QxiAEh4gVn)
FL+GA+SC+NC+VA = 13.6 Trillon https://t.co/3rPhsyOS0h
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10-09-2016, 05:20 PM
Post: #367
RE: HURRICANE MATTHEW
5pm
Quote: POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

Dropsonde data from a NASA Global Hawk mission into Matthew today
indicate that the post-tropical cyclone has not weakened. The
observations continue to show a band of 60-65 kt winds to the
southwest and west of the center. Matthew is moving east-
northeastward at about 13 kt, and an east-northeastward motion
within the mid-latitude westerlies should continue through
tonight. Matthew is forecast by the global models to weaken and be
absorbed within a frontal boundary on Monday, and the NHC forecast
follows suit. It should be noted that a strong baroclinic low is
expected to develop along the same frontal boundary near Nova
Scotia on Monday.

Winds over the Outer Banks of North Carolina have gradually
diminished this afternoon, and the tropical storm warning has been
discontinued. Dangerously high water levels over portions of the
Outer Banks will gradually subside overnight and early Monday.
Based on these trends, this will be the last NHC advisory on
Matthew. For additional information on the elevated water levels in
the Outer Banks and the ongoing freshwater flooding in eastern North
Carolina, see products and warnings issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office. Additional information on Matthew
can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01
KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 35.4N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 10/0600Z 36.4N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Brown
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