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HURRICANE MATTHEW
09-28-2016, 07:35 AM
Post: #11
RE: INVEST 97L

AARoads
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09-28-2016, 07:58 AM
Post: #12
RE: INVEST 97L
7am

Quote: NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the strong tropical wave located near Barbados is producing
winds of 40 to 45 mph. Regardless of whether or not the system
becomes a tropical storm before it moves through the Lesser
Antilles, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains will spread
across Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia today.
Satellite and surface observations suggest that the circulation
associated with the system has become better defined, and the
reconnaissance aircraft is beginning its mission to determine if a
tropical storm has formed. The system is moving westward to
west-northwestward at around 15 mph, and is expected to pass over
the Lesser Antilles later today, and move over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands should
consult products issued by your national meteorological service,
including possible tropical storm warnings or watches. Interests
in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South
America should also monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coast of the
western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak low pressure
area near Tampico, Mexico. This low is forecast to move inland
later today or tonight and significant development of this system
is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brown

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09-28-2016, 10:09 AM
Post: #13
RE: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

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09-28-2016, 12:50 PM
Post: #14
RE: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
Not questioning it - but that's a hard north hook ...

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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09-28-2016, 02:44 PM (This post was last modified: 09-28-2016 02:53 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #15
RE: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
[Image: wg8dlm1.GIF]

.
JM

Quote: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in the Lesser Antilles Islands

By:Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on September 28, 2016


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Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the Lesser Antilles Islands thanks to newly-formed Tropical Storm Matthew. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found on Wednesday morning that Invest 97L had finally developed a closed circulation, and had surface winds near 60 mph in a powerful cluster of thunderstorms that was located about 50 miles east of Martinique at 9:22 am EDT. These strong winds will move over the islands of Martinique and Dominica early this afternoon, given Matthew’s westerly motion at 20 mph. At 11 am EDT, Dominica reported sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 53 mph, and Martinique reported sustained winds of 28 mph, gusting to 40 mph. Radar imagery out of Martinique and Barbados on Wednesday morning showed plenty of rotation to the storm’s echoes, and an increase in their intensity and areal coverage. Satellite loops showed that Matthew was developing a well-defined surface circulation, and had an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was growing more organized. Aiding development was moderate wind shearof 10 - 20 knots and warm ocean waters of 29.5°C (85°F). The 8 am EDT Tuesday SHIPS model output analyzed 50 - 55% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere over Matthew, which is lower than optimal for tropical cyclone formation, and water vapor satellite loops showed Matthew was butting into a region of dry air that lay just west of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Lack of spin from being too close to the equator was less of a problem for Matthew than before, as the system had worked its way northwards to a latitude of 13°N. This is far enough from the equator for the storm to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire more spin of its own.

[Image: barbados-radar-sep28b.png]
Figure 1. Barbados radar at 10:20 am EDT September 28, 2016 showed a large region of heavy rains from Matthew beginning to move into the Lesser Antilles Islands. The Hurricane Hunters found surface winds of 60 mph under the cell just east of Martinique. An "X" marks the center of Matthew. Image credit: Barbados Met Service.

[Image: matt-modis-sep28.jpg]
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Matthew taken at 10:30 am EDT September 28, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Two-day forecast for Matthew
Matthew will average a westerly motion at about 15 mph through Thursday morning. The core of the storm will pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday afternoon, with the storm’s strongest winds and heaviest rains of 4 - 8” affecting the islands just north of the center, including St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe. The storm will continue westwards on Thursday, and make its closest approach to the ABC islands of the Netherlands Antilles—Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao—on Thursday night and Friday morning. These islands will be on the weak (left) side of the storm, and will likely escape receiving tropical storm winds, though rains of 1 - 2” can be expected. As Matthew passes through the southeastern Caribbean, it will be in an environment somewhat unfavorable for development. Tropical cyclones passing near the coast of South America often suck in dry continental air from the land areas to the south, and the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Matthew will have to contend with moderate wind shear and dry air through Friday. The last hurricane to pass through the southeastern Caribbean, Hurricane Tomas of 2010, degraded from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical depression due to high wind shear and dry air as it moved across the region. Expect only slow intensification of Matthew on Thursday and Friday.

[Image: euro-sep28.png]

[Image: gfs-sep28.png]

Figure 3. Forecasts from the 00Z Wednesday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late in the week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by four days into the future. The two models have grown closer together in their solutions compared to Tuesday, but the European model still shows a considerably slower and more westerly track for Matthew than the GFS model.

Longer-range forecast for Matthew
Matthew is being steered by a ridge of high pressure that extends only as far west as the ABC islands. Matthew will slow down to a forward speed of 5 - 10 mph by Friday as it reaches the edge of this ridge, and the storm will maintain that slow forward speed though the weekend. A large upper-level low pressure system has separated from the jet stream and will settle over east-central U.S. late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull Matthew sharply to the north by the weekend, according to the Wednesday morning runs of the models. This sharp turn is expected to occur on Friday night or on Saturday, and the exact timing of the turn has huge implications for who experiences the peak wrath of the storm. An earlier turn is being predicted by the GFS model, with a landfall by the storm in eastern Cuba on Monday morning. Matthew is then predicted to move through the central Bahamas on Tuesday. The European model forecasts a later turn, with a landfall in Jamaica on Monday night, and then in eastern Cuba on Tuesday night. The 00Z Wednesday run of the UKMET model brings Matthew northward across Haiti on Monday and into the southeastern Bahamas by Tuesday. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 3), the long-range uncertainties in Matthew’s long-range track are high. Now that Matthew has finally established a coherent center of circulation, expect the forecast uncertainty to improve in this evening’s model runs. Matthew is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are quite bullish on this storm being a hurricane when it makes its landfall early next week in the islands, and residents of Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba should anticipate the possibility of a hurricane affecting them early next week.

We will be back this afternoon with an update on Matthew.

Jeff Masters

.
[Image: clarki14latest.png]
.
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09-28-2016, 04:04 PM
Post: #16
RE: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
5pm

Quote: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and aircraft data from earlier this afternoon
indicate that the circulation of Matthew has continued to become
better defined. There has also been an increase in convection
just northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt
based on the earlier aircraft data. The next Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew is scheduled for this evening.
Although the increase in convection suggests that the system may be
trying to establish an inner core, recent microwave and radar data
have not revealed a significant increase in organization or banding
so far. The aircraft also did not report any pressure fall during
its mission. Based on these trends, little change in intensity is
predicted in the short-range, but warm waters and low shear are
expected to allow for steady strengthening while Matthew moves over
the eastern and central Caribbean during the next few days. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity
consensus through 24 hours, but is close to the consensus and the
statistical models after that time.

Matthew is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 16 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous
advisory. The tropical cyclone should move generally westward
during the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge over the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast has
been nudged northward through 72 hours, to be closer to the new
model consensus. After day 3, Matthew is expected to turn
northwestward as it nears the western portion of the ridge. The
overall track envelope has shifted slightly eastward at days 4 and
5, and the NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. It should
be noted that are still significant differences among the models in
how soon and how sharply Matthew turns northwestward and northward
late in the forecast period. Users are reminded that the average
NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240
miles, respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 13.8N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 14.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 14.4N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 14.1N 71.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 14.2N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 15.8N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

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09-28-2016, 04:13 PM
Post: #17
RE: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
Fish and fine ....

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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09-28-2016, 07:55 PM (This post was last modified: 09-28-2016 07:57 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #18
RE: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
(09-28-2016 04:13 PM)pcbjr Wrote:  Fish and fine ....

Let's not forget the thrashing the Caribbean looks to take....but for the US mainland, if steering persists, looks likely....
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09-29-2016, 06:02 AM
Post: #19
RE: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
5AM

Quote: 00
WTNT44 KNHC 290905
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Matthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located near the
western edge of the main convective mass. An earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported 850 mb flight-level winds
of 65-70 kt and estimated surface winds of 50-55 kt from the SFMR
instrument. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55
kt. The aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb on its
last pass through the center.

The initial motion is 275/14. Matthew is currently on the south
side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This feature should
steer the storm westward or even south of west during the next 48
hours. After that time, Matthew is expected to approach the
western end of the ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. While this combination is expected to
cause the cyclone to turn generally northward, there is significant
disagreement between the dynamical models on where the turn will
occur and how fast Matthew will move northward. The forecast track
is in best agreement with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean in bringing
the center to eastern Cuba by 120 hours, although it is slower than
those models. The Canadian model is a little west of the forecast
track. The ECMWF and UKMET are to the east of the forecast track and
much slower, bringing the center to the island of Hispaniola.
Overall, the new forecast track is nudged a little south of the
previous track for the first 72 hours, then is similar to the
previous track. Users are reminded that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles,
respectively.

The current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next
72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development.
After that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding
the forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern
than the ECMWF. If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew
could strengthen more than currently forecast as show by the HWRF.
However, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the
same as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the
intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.0N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.1N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.9N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.8N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

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09-29-2016, 11:02 AM
Post: #20
RE: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
10AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

The center of Matthew is exposed to the southwest of the deep
convection due to moderate southwesterly shear. Despite the shear,
data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that
Matthew is a little stronger this morning. The aircraft has
measured peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 80 kt, and believable
SFMR winds of around 60 kt, which is the basis for the initial
intensity. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft
is down to 996 mb.

Given the current shear and structure of Matthew, only slight
strengthening is predicted during the next 24 hours. The shear is
forecast to slowly decrease over the next few days, although there
are some differences in the upper-level wind forecasts between the
ECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF keeps a band of southwesterly
upper-level winds near Matthew, while the GFS generally shows lower
shear. The NHC forecast assumes that there will be a reduction in
shear and calls for intensification similar to the previous
advisory. The official wind speed forecast is between the lower
statistical guidance and the more aggressive HWRF and GFDL models.

Matthew is moving at 275/14 kt. The tropical storm is expected to
move westward to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the
western Atlantic during the next couple of days. In about 48 hours,
Matthew should turn northwestward when it approaches the western
periphery of the ridge. After that time, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to turn northward while a mid- to upper-level trough
develops over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is still much faster than
the ECMWF at taking Matthew northward. Although the east/west spread
among the higher quality track models is somewhat smaller this
morning, there is still significant spread among the ECMWF ensembles
beyond 3 days, and the overall confidence in the track forecast is
still low. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous forecast and is very close to the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.3N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.1N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.9N 72.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.0N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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