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TROPICAL STORM LISA
09-17-2016, 09:26 AM (This post was last modified: 09-20-2016 12:08 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Rainbow TROPICAL STORM LISA
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AL, 96, 2016091712, , BEST, 0, 125N, 192W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Julia, located a couple hundred miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina, and on Tropical Storm Karl, located about
midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
area associated with a tropical wave located between Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form by the
early part of next week while this system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This
system is likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of
the Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Blake

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[Image: two_atl_2d1.png]

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[Image: storm_96.gif]
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[Image: al_rCUMP_048.gif]
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09-17-2016, 05:29 PM
Post: #2
RE: INVEST 96L
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96L off the coast of Africa may develop
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity was located between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday morning. This system was designated Invest 96L by NHC on Saturday morning. The tropical wave has favorable conditions for development through Monday as it heads west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph through the Cabo Verde Islands. The latest 00Z Saturday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models—all showed development of the system over the next three days. 96L is headed into a region of ocean where very few storms ever threaten any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC increased their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 40% and 70%, respectively.
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09-19-2016, 07:43 AM
Post: #3
RE: INVEST 96L
ZZZZZZZ
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09-19-2016, 02:00 PM (This post was last modified: 09-19-2016 02:01 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #4
RE: INVEST 96L
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located well east of the Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization, and it appears that a
tropical depression could be forming. If this trend continues,
then advisories could be initiated on this system later today or
tonight. Occasional heavy rains and gusty winds associated with
this system should diminish later today over the Cabo Verde Islands
while the low moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Berg/Petersen/Chenard

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[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]
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09-20-2016, 12:08 PM
Post: #5
RE: TROPICAL STORM LISA
11am

Quote: TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016

CORRECTED LISA TO BE TWELFTH NAMED STORM

The cloud pattern of the cyclone has steadily improved, with long
curved bands having developed in the northern semicircle since the
previous advisory. Although Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB were 30 kt at 1200Z, recent UW-CIMSS ADT values have
increased to 35 kt and AMSU intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt.
Therefore the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which
is a compromise of these estimates, making the cyclone the twelfth
named storm of the 2016 hurricane season.

Visible satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Lisa is now
moving northwestward or 305/10 kt. Water vapor imagery and
satellite-derived winds indicate that a large mid-latitude trough
extends from near the Canary Islands southwestward into the tropics,
which has created a break in the subtropical ridge along 30W-40W
longitude. Lisa is forecast to move generally northwestward toward
the break in the ridge for the next 4 days, followed by a northward
turn as the cyclone moves around the western periphery of the ridge
axis. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on this
track scenario, and the new NHC forecast track is just a little to
the right of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the
more northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus
model TVCN.

Lisa has about 48 hours remaining to strengthen while the vertical
wind shear and upper-level outflow pattern remain favorable, and
sea-surface temperatures are above 27 deg C. However, a marginally
moist mid-level environment and the large size of the cyclone are
expected to prevent any rapid strengthening from occuring. After
that time, the atmosphere is expected to become quite hostile,
characterized by southwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and much drier
mid-level air, resulting in steady weakening from 72-120 hours.
Although the dynamical guidance continues to forecast some
relaxation of the shear toward the end of the period, the cyclone
will likely be too degraded to recover. The official intensity
forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 48 hours, and then lies
closer to the LGEM guidance after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.3N 30.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 16.2N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 17.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 18.2N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 19.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.7N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 24.5N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.3N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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09-21-2016, 08:44 PM
Post: #6
RE: TROPICAL STORM LISA
[Image: al132016.16092112.gif]
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09-22-2016, 08:40 PM
Post: #7
RE: TROPICAL STORM LISA
[Image: al132016.16092212.gif]
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09-23-2016, 08:38 AM
Post: #8
RE: TROPICAL STORM LISA
The Dramatic GFS" back with its Gulf
Hurricane idea around October 6th. 0z had a hit in Louisiana, 6z has a
hit near Apalachicola.
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