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TS KARL
09-13-2016, 01:49 PM (This post was last modified: 09-16-2016 08:09 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #1
TS KARL
AL, 95, 2016091312, , BEST, 0, 133N, 205W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near Daytona Beach,
Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along or just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system is
very close to having the organization required of a tropical
cyclone, and advisories could be initiated later this afternoon.
The low is expected to move north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
today, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds will continue over
portions of the northeast Florida coast today, and heavy rains will
continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and
tonight. Please consult your local National Weather Service office
for additional information on this system, including possible
warnings.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

2. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during
the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Pasch

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.
JM

Quote: 95L off the coast of Africa may develop
A large tropical wave (Invest 95L) emerged from the coast of Africa Monday night, and was headed west-northwest at about 10 - 15 mph towards the Cabo Verde Islands. Satellite images late Tuesday morning showed that this wave was well-organized, with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, a moist atmosphere and warm SSTs near 27.5°C (81.5°F), 95L is likely to develop into a tropical depression late this week in the central tropical Atlantic, as predicted by the 0Z Tuesday runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European, and UKMET models. The storm will mostly track to the west-northwest over the next five days, into a region of ocean where few storms eventually end up hitting the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, it is too early to assume that 95L will recurve to the north and northeast without ever affecting any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively.
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[Image: plot20160913-1245.gif]

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[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]
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09-13-2016, 02:59 PM (This post was last modified: 09-13-2016 03:17 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #2
RE: INVEST 95L
[Image: 20160913.1830.msg3.x.vis2km.95LINVEST.25....100pc.jpg]
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09-14-2016, 07:23 AM (This post was last modified: 09-14-2016 07:42 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #3
RE: INVEST 95L
.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Julia, located over southeastern Georgia.

1. A low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is moving
through the Cabo Verde Islands. Satellite imagery indicates that
shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low has
become better organized overnight. If current trends continue,
advisories on a tropical depression would be initiated later today.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
by the weekend, moving generally west-northwestward into the
eastern Atlantic. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system after it moves offshore but could become
less favorable by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Kimberlain
.

[Image: clark12latest.png]

[Image: clarki12latest.png]
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09-14-2016, 09:45 AM
Post: #4
RE: INVEST 95L
It is now TD 12:

375
WTNT42 KNHC 141442
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016

Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations
indicate that the low pressure area over the Cabo Verde Islands has
developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized
convection to be considered a tropical depression. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data along
with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 300/12. A low- to mid-level ridge should
steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the
forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36 hours
as the ridge weakens slightly. The forecast track is near the
center of the guidance envelope and close to the various consensus
models.

Some strengthening is expected during the next 12-24 hours. After
that, the cyclone is likely to encounter strong westerly vertical
wind shear while over sea surface temperatures of about 26C. This
combination should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast
shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. Near
the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models diverge on the
evolution of the upper-level winds, with the ECMWF and UKMET
forecasting a more favorable pattern than the GFS. Based on this,
the forecast shows some re-intensification by 120 hours. An
alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates to a tropical
wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall, the intensity forecast is on
the low side of the guidance in best agreement with the LGEM.

Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over the Cabo
Verde Islands. However, current indications are that the cyclone
will not reach tropical-storm strength until it has moved west of
the islands. Therefore, watches and warnings are not required at
this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 17.0N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.5N 26.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 29.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.9N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 17.8N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 17.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 17.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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09-14-2016, 10:43 AM
Post: #5
RE: TD#12
(09-14-2016 09:45 AM)mavidal Wrote:  It is now TD 12:

375
WTNT42 KNHC 141442
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016

Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations
indicate that the low pressure area over the Cabo Verde Islands has
developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized
convection to be considered a tropical depression. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data along
with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 300/12. A low- to mid-level ridge should
steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the
forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36 hours
as the ridge weakens slightly. The forecast track is near the
center of the guidance envelope and close to the various consensus
models.

Some strengthening is expected during the next 12-24 hours. After
that, the cyclone is likely to encounter strong westerly vertical
wind shear while over sea surface temperatures of about 26C. This
combination should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast
shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. Near
the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models diverge on the
evolution of the upper-level winds, with the ECMWF and UKMET
forecasting a more favorable pattern than the GFS. Based on this,
the forecast shows some re-intensification by 120 hours. An
alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates to a tropical
wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall, the intensity forecast is on
the low side of the guidance in best agreement with the LGEM.

Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over the Cabo
Verde Islands. However, current indications are that the cyclone
will not reach tropical-storm strength until it has moved west of
the islands. Therefore, watches and warnings are not required at
this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 17.0N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.5N 26.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 29.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.9N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 17.8N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 17.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 17.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
Thanks for some reason I didn't get an upgrade alert for this system

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09-14-2016, 12:41 PM (This post was last modified: 09-14-2016 12:45 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #6
RE: TD#12
[Image: clarki12latest.png] [Image: plot20160914-1323.gif]

[Image: 20160914.1700.msg3.x.vis1km_high.12LTWEL....100pc.jpg]
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09-14-2016, 03:56 PM
Post: #7
RE: TD#12
5pm

Quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016

The depression has not become better organized since the last
advisory, with the most concentrated convection now in a cluster
just west of the estimated center position. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate
from SAB.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then
westward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward
speed after 36-48 hours as the ridge weakens slightly. The new
forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous
track based on a slight northward shift in the track guidance.

Some strengthening is expected during the next 12 hours or so. After
that, the cyclone will encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear
caused by a developing upper-level trough near and north of the
cyclone. This, combined with passage over sea-surface temperatures
of about 26C-27C, should lead to weakening, and the intensity
forecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36
hours. Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models
continue to diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with
the ECMWF and UKMET forecasting a more favorable ridge pattern near
the cyclone, whereas the GFS has an upper-level trough close by.
Based on these conflicting models, the forecast leans toward the
ECMWF/UKMET scenario and shows some re-intensification by 120 hours.
An alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates into a broad
low pressure area or tropical wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall,
the intensity forecast remains on the low side of the guidance in
best agreement with the LGEM.

Gusty winds remain possible over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight,
whereas locally heavy rains will remain possible through Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 17.4N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.9N 28.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 18.0N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 18.1N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.1N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 18.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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09-15-2016, 08:03 AM (This post was last modified: 09-15-2016 08:10 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #8
RE: TD#12
.
JM

Quote:Tropical Depression 12 forms over the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Depression Twelve formed in the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning, and was bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the islands as the storm headed west-northwest at 13 mph. Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed that TD 12 was well-organized, with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, a moist atmosphere and warm SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81°F), TD 12 is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Karl by Thursday. Ocean temperatures will cool, the atmosphere will get drier and wind shear will increase over TD 12 on Friday, which should weaken the storm—or even dissipate it, as predicted by the GFS model. TD 12 will mostly track to the west-northwest or west over the next five days; it is too early to assume that the storm will recurve to the north and northeast without ever affecting any land areas.

.

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09-15-2016, 10:21 AM
Post: #9
RE: TD#12
Fish ?
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09-15-2016, 05:06 PM
Post: #10
RE: TD#12
(09-15-2016 10:21 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Fish ?

JM says too early to declare just yet....but I'd say odds are fish...

Quote: Tropical Depression 12 continues west with little change
Tropical Depression Twelve brought heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday, and is now pulling away from the islands as it heads west at 16 mph. Satellite images on Thursday morning showed that TD 12 was well-organized, with a large circulation and plenty of low-level spiral bands, but the center was completed exposed to view due to high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, with most of the storm’s heavy thunderstorms far from the center. TD 12 is embedded in a moist atmosphere and has warm SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81°F) under it, and may be able to develop into Tropical Storm Karl this weekend, when the shear is expected to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. However, the atmosphere surrounding TD 12 will get drier this weekend, which should interfere with development—or possibly dissipate the storm by five days from now, as predicted by the operational GFS model and 17 of its 20 ensemble member forecasts. While most of the 50 members of the European model ensemble show TD 12 eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, 6 out of 50 of the forecasts show the storm hitting the U.S. East Coast 10+ days from now, so it is too early to assume that TD 12 will be a “fish” storm.

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