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TS KARL
09-15-2016, 09:22 PM (This post was last modified: 09-15-2016 09:55 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #11
RE: TD#12
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09-16-2016, 08:13 AM (This post was last modified: 09-16-2016 08:34 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #12
RE: TS KARL
000
WTNT32 KNHC 160833
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 33.4W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1870 MI...3005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 33.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west-
southwestward motion is possible Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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09-16-2016, 01:52 PM (This post was last modified: 09-16-2016 01:54 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #13
RE: TS KARL
.
JM

Quote: Tropical Storm Karl continues west with little change
Tropical Storm Karl formed Thursday evening in the waters of the eastern tropical Atlantic, and was headed west at 13 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands late Friday morning. Steering currents will likely take Karl far enough to the west-northwest by early next week to keep the storm well clear of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but a potential long-range threat to North America or Bermuda cannot be ruled out at this time. Satellite images on Friday morning showed that Karl was well-organized, with a large circulation and plenty of low-level spiral bands, but the center was nearly completely exposed to view due to high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, with the storm’s heavy thunderstorms limited to the northeast side of the center. Karl has marginal conditions for development, with relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 60% and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 27°C (81°F). By Sunday, SSTs will increase to 28°C and wind shear is expected to drop to the low range--less than 10 knots. These conditions favor strengthening. However, the atmosphere surrounding Karl will get drier this weekend, which should slow development.

The track forecast for Karl for the next five days is fairly straightforward, with the steering currents expected to take the storm west, then slightly south of due west, then west-northwest. Karl should clear the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by several hundred miles at the time of its closest approach on Wednesday. As usual, the picture gets pretty murky more than five days into the future. The most probable track painted by the models for Karl a week or more into the future is for the storm to get caught in the steering flow of a strong trough of low pressure passing to its north late next week. This would result in a recurving path for Karl to the north and then northeast, with the storm missing the U.S. East Coast. This is the prediction from about 80% of the 50 members of the 00Z Friday run of the European ensemble forecast, and all 20 members of the 00Z Friday GFS ensemble forecast. In this situation, Bermuda and the Maritime Provinces of Canada might still be at risk from a direct hit, though. The other possibility is that the trough passing to the north of Karl late next week will not be able to capture the storm, and a ridge of high pressure will build in over Karl, forcing it the west or northwest, potentially bringing Karl to a landfall along the U.S. East Coast about ten days from now.

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09-16-2016, 10:08 PM
Post: #14
RE: TS KARL
000
WTNT32 KNHC 170249
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

...KARL CONTINUES AS A TROPICAL STORM OVER OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 37.0W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1630 MI...2625 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 37.0 West. Karl is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

=========================================

000
WTNT42 KNHC 170250
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

The deep convection with Karl is limited to the northeastern
quadrant because of the 20 kt westerly vertical shear currently
afflicting the tropical storm. Despite this, a 0007 UTC ASCAT
scatterometer pass indicated maximum winds of about 40 kt, which is
the initial intensity.

Karl should continue to struggle for the next day or so due to the
hostile vertical shear. The shear should relax as Karl reaches the
west side of an upper-level trough in about 36 to 48 hours. From
that point in time onward, Karl should be experiencing more
conducive conditions: gradually warming SSTs, a moist low to middle
troposphere, and low vertical shear. The NHC intensity forecast is
for Karl to weaken slightly within the next day and then steadily
strengthen starting in about two days onward. This is quite
similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the IVCN
multi-model consensus. However, confidence in Karl actually
becoming a hurricane in five days is low because of the spread in
the guidance.

Karl is moving toward the west at 13 kt. The Bermuda-Azores
high will be building in north of the tropical storm, helping to
propel Karl on a general westward track for the next couple of
days. Beginning in about three days, Karl will reach the western
periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and bend toward the
west-northwest. The reliable track models have substantial spread
- especially during days one to three - with some solutions
showing a west-southwesterly track, which is rarely seen in
this part of the Atlantic basin.
The NHC track forecast is
slightly south of the previous advisory, and is based upon
the TVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial size of Karl is determined by the recent scatterometer
pass, which showed a large area of tropical-storm-force winds in the
northern semicircle, but none to the south. The NHC wind radii
forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 18.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 18.5N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 18.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.5N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.0N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

========================

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09-17-2016, 09:43 AM
Post: #15
RE: TS KARL
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09-17-2016, 05:17 PM
Post: #16
RE: TS KARL
.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 172034
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016

Convection continues to flare up and down near the center of Karl,
with a larger mass well to the northeast of the center. In
addition, the circulation looks more elongated than earlier today,
perhaps due to the convective asymmetry. The initial wind speed is
held at 40 kt since the system does not look all that different,
although the satellite classifications are a bit lower.

Karl could still weaken a little bit in the short term while the
cyclone is in a recovery stage from its interaction with an
upper-level low. Gradual strengthening is then forecast by early
next week as the storm encounters very warm water, low shear, and a
marginal moisture environment. Model guidance is very similar to
the previous cycle, except for the ECMWF which shows a more powerful
cyclone by day 5. Very little change was made to the official
forecast, which continues to be most similar to a blend of the
SHIPS/LGEM models.

The initial motion estimate is unchanged from the previous one,
265/11. Karl should begin to gain some latitude by Monday as it
moves around the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday due to
the orientation of the ridge, and this motion could continue for
the rest of the 5-day period. The biggest change since the last
cycle is that model guidance is showing a stronger ridge in the
central Atlantic, which would prolong the west-northwestward
motion. The track models have shifted westward at long range, and
the official forecast is moved in that direction
, but not as far
west as the 12Z ECMWF/GFS solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 18.1N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.9N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.8N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 18.1N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.8N 50.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 20.6N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 23.0N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 25.0N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
.
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09-17-2016, 09:15 PM (This post was last modified: 09-17-2016 09:19 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #17
RE: TS KARL
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09-18-2016, 11:05 PM (This post was last modified: 09-18-2016 11:09 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #18
RE: TS KARL
.
Tropical Storm Karl continues west with little change
Tropical Storm Karl was headed west at 12 mph in the central tropical Atlantic late Sunday morning, and does not pose a threat to any land areas for at least the next five days. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed much the same picture as the previous three days: Karl had a large circulation and plenty of low-level spiral bands, but the center was nearly completely exposed to view due to moderate wind shear of 15 knots, with the storm’s heavy thunderstorms limited to the northeast side of the center. Karl had marginal conditions for development, with relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere 45 - 50% and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 27.5°C (82°F). By Monday, SSTs will increase to 28°C and wind shear is expected to drop to the low range—less than 10 knots. These conditions favor strengthening. However, the atmosphere surrounding Karl will be quite dry through Tuesday, which should slow development.

The track forecast for Karl for the next five days is fairly straightforward, with the steering currents expected to take the storm west, then west-northwest. Karl should clear the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by several hundred miles at the time of its closest approach on Wednesday, and wind up at a point midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda on Friday. At that point, Karl is likely to be a hurricane, and will start generating large swells which will begin impacting the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas early next week. The big question is—will Karl make landfall on the U.S. East Coast early next week? Hurricane forecasts more than five days in advance are quite unreliable, but residents along the U.S. East Coast can take heart from the fact that a strong trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Karl early next week. This would result in a recurving path for Karl to the north and then northeast, with the storm missing the U.S. East Coast. This was the prediction from the 12Z Saturday and 00Z Sunday runs of our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models. Moreover, more than 90% of the 50 members of the 00Z Sunday run of the European ensemble forecast and all 20 members of the 00Z Sunday GFS ensemble forecast predicted that Karl would miss the U.S. Given these forecasts, it currently appears that Bermuda and the Maritime Provinces of Canada are the only land areas at significant risk from a direct hit from Karl next week. Still, long range forecasts like this are unreliable, and we will have to watch the evolution of the forecast of the upper air pattern in the coming days to see if a landfall along the U.S. East Coast early next week might be in the cards.

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09-19-2016, 09:10 AM
Post: #19
RE: TS KARL
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09-19-2016, 02:07 PM
Post: #20
RE: TS KARL
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