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TROPICAL STORM JULIA
09-08-2016, 02:17 PM (This post was last modified: 09-13-2016 09:35 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Exclamation TROPICAL STORM JULIA
Currently @ 10%

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09-09-2016, 09:31 AM
Post: #2
RE: Invest 93L
93L and 94L will try to post some updates a little later

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09-13-2016, 08:04 PM
Post: #3
RE: Invest 93L
code red 70%

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09-13-2016, 08:05 PM
Post: #4
RE: Invest 93L
7pm

Quote: 1. Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near St. Augustine,
Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along and just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system
has been maintaining its organization through the afternoon and
early evening, and advisories will likely be initiated later this
evening. The low is expected to move north-northwestward to
northward at 10 to 15 mph tonight, near and parallel to the
northeast coast of Florida. Strong gusty winds, some to tropical
storm force, will continue over portions of the northeast Florida
coast tonight, and heavy rains will continue to spread over central
and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday. Some areas from
northeast Florida to South Carolina could receive 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Please
consult your local National Weather Service office for additional
information on this system, including possible warnings.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

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09-13-2016, 09:19 PM
Post: #5
RE: Invest 93L
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/7758...25952?s=07

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09-13-2016, 09:21 PM
Post: #6
RE: Invest 93L
Tropical Storm Julie forms over FL

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09-13-2016, 09:34 PM
Post: #7
RE: Invest 93L
11pm

Quote: TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida
east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection,
accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to
the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while
the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than
about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the
afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the
system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

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09-13-2016, 09:36 PM
Post: #8
RE: TROPICAL STORM JULIA

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

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09-14-2016, 07:19 AM
Post: #9
RE: TROPICAL STORM JULIA
5AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

Julia continues to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms
primarily over water to the northeast of its center, but this
activity has become a little more separated from the center
overnight. The strong winds that occurred during the evening along
the northeast Florida coast have spread northward along the coast
of southern Georgia with recent surface observations reporting
wind gusts to tropical storm force. Julia should gradually weaken
during the next day or so due to continued land interaction and
westerly shear. The updated intensity forecast calls for Julia to
weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low
on Thursday. This is supported by the global models, which show the
low filling and wind field gradually diminishing over the next 36
hours.

Julia is moving northward at about 6 kt. The tropical cyclone is
forecast to slow down later today, and drift northward over eastern
Georgia during the next couple of days. The track guidance has
shifted eastward this cycle, and the official forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.

The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near
10 inches along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines. These
rains could result in flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 30.9N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1800Z 31.6N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 31.9N 81.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1800Z 32.1N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 32.2N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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09-14-2016, 10:42 AM
Post: #10
RE: TROPICAL STORM JULIA
10am
Quote: TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

Julia is estimated to be maintaining 35-kt winds, based on WSR 88-D
Doppler velocity data, well offshore of the coast. Since the
system will continue to interact with land, weakening is forecast
and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of
days. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest
D-SHIPS and LGEM guidance. There is a possibility, however, that
the system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water.

The center of Julia may be reforming closer to the Georgia coast,
although the surface observations are not yet definitive, and the
initial motion is a highly uncertain 030/5 kt. The tropical
cyclone is likely to remain in weak steering currents near the axis
of the subtropical ridge, and the track guidance models indicate
that some erratic motion is likely over the next couple of days.
The official forecast shows a very slow motion after 12 hours, and
is east of the previous NHC track.

The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near
10 inches along portions of the South Carolina coastline. These
rains could result in flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 31.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1200Z 32.2N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 32.3N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 32.3N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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