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TROPICAL STORM JULIA
09-14-2016, 03:55 PM
Post: #11
RE: TROPICAL STORM JULIA
5pm

Quote: TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

The storm continues to have an asymmetric cloud pattern, with
little deep convection over the western and southern portions of
the circulation. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt
based on WSR-88D Doppler velocity data. Since the system is
expected to be over water for the next couple of days, some
strengthening is now possible. However the vertical shear, which
is currently approaching 20 kt, is forecast by the dynamical models
to increase to near 30 kt in 48 hours. This strong shear should
limit significant intensification, as indicated in the latest
official forecast. The NHC forecast is also very close to
the latest intensity model consensus.

Visible satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
cyclone continues moving northeastward, or around 040/5 kt.
Julia is likely to remain in a weak steering environment, near the
axis of the subtropical ridge, for the next few days. Most
of the track guidance shows a slow and erratic motion, and the GFS
and ECMWF global models depict the system looping back to the
coast in several days. This is also shown in the latest official
track forecast, which is shifted considerably east of the previous
NHC prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 32.1N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 32.3N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 32.4N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 32.3N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 32.2N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 32.0N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 32.2N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 32.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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09-15-2016, 04:03 PM
Post: #12
RE: TROPICAL STORM JULIA
5pm

Quote: WTNT41 KNHC 152050
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Julia
and reported estimated surface winds of 35-40 kt from the SFMR
instrument in the northeast quadrant, along with a central pressure
of 1007 mb. The maximum flight-level winds at 850 mb were 34 kt.
Based on a blend of the surface estimates and flight-level winds,
the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. The aircraft reported a
sharp trough extending to the east of the center, and the storm is
producing vigorous convective bursts near the center and along the
trough.

Julia continues to move generally eastward or 085/7, possibly due
to the reformation of the center caused by the convective bursts.
The track guidance continues to forecast that the cyclone will slow
its forward motion in the next 12 hours, after which it will move
very little through 72-96 hours. Based on this premise, which so
far has not come to pass, the new forecast track will keep Julia
moving east for 12 hours and then show a loop from 12-96 hours. The
new forecast area of meandering is about 60 n mi east of that from
the previous forecast.

Julia is likely to experience very strong westerly to northwesterly
shear from 12-84 hours, and this is expected to cause a gradual
weakening during this time. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
previous one in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant
low by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours. If Julia
survives the extended period of shear, the environment should become
more favorable after 84 hours, and the system could re-intensify as
forecast by the UKMET and Canadian models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 32.1N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 32.0N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 31.8N 76.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.5N 76.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 31.5N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 32.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 32.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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09-16-2016, 04:22 AM
Post: #13
RE: TROPICAL STORM JULIA
5AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deep convection continues to burst 60 to 70 n mi east of the center
of Julia and is then pushed farther to the east by 25 to 30 kt of
westerly shear affecting the cyclone. The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and this
could be a little generous. The shear will remain strong for the
next 2-3 days, and the cyclone is expected to remain in a dry
mid-level environment, which should result in a gradual spin down to
remnant low status. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous
one and reflects this thinking.

Julia has been moving southeastward tonight, and the initial motion
estimate is 135/04. The cyclone is expected to meander erratically
for the next 2-3 days in weak steering flow, while late in the
period the remnant low should begin to move northeastward. Not
surprisingly, the track model guidance shows a lot of spread in the
direction of motion and the forward speed, so the uncertainty in the
track forecast remains large.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 31.1N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 30.8N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 30.9N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 31.0N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 31.2N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 32.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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09-17-2016, 09:58 AM
Post: #14
RE: TROPICAL STORM JULIA
11AM

Quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Convection has increased somewhat over the eastern quadrant of
Julia, both in a cluster about 150 n mi east of the center and in
thin bands closer to the center. This is just enough to keep the
cyclone a tropical depression for this advisory. In the short term,
the vertical wind shear is not favorable to sustain convection, and
the cyclone should decay to a remnant low in 12 hours or less. The
dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease after 36 hours, but
it is likely that the remnant low will not be strong enough to take
advantage of the more favorable environment. Thus, the intensity
forecast continues to call for dissipation by 72 hours.

The depression is currently nearly stationary. A low- to mid-level
ridge north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during
the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the
eastern United States. The flow between these features should steer
the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for
the remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is
similar to, but a little east of, the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.2N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 32.2N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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