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INVEST 92L Code Orange GOM threat
08-30-2016, 08:47 AM (This post was last modified: 09-09-2016 06:16 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Exclamation INVEST 92L Code Orange GOM threat
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08-30-2016, 09:25 AM
Post: #2
RE: INVEST 92L
Got the popcorn, this one may be interesting.
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08-30-2016, 07:56 PM (This post was last modified: 09-02-2016 01:09 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #3
RE: INVEST 92L
JM

Quote:.
92L off the coast of Africa embedded in dry air
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday evening was designated Invest 92L by NHC. The wave was moving through the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday and will potentially develop into a tropical depression later in the week. SSTs and wind shear would be favorable for development during the coming five days, but 92L is embedded in a major pulse of dust and dry air from the Sahara that left the coast at the same time, just to the north of 92L. This dry air will greatly interfere with development over the coming days as 92L heads west at 15 - 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. The latest 12Z Tuesday (8 am EDT) runs of two of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS and UKMET models—developed 92L, but not until five days from now. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will likely move through or just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday.
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09-02-2016, 09:15 AM
Post: #4
RE: INVEST 92L
Great. We're cruising from New Orleans to Cozumel on the 8th...
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09-02-2016, 12:58 PM (This post was last modified: 09-02-2016 01:18 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #5
RE: INVEST 92L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located near the Azores, and on Tropical Storm
Hermine, located over the southeastern United States.

1. A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean located
about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing only
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system,
if any, will be slow to occur while it approaches the Lesser
Antilles and continues westward into the eastern Caribbean Sea early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Blake

JM 9/2

Quote:.
Invest 92L trying to organize in tropical Atlantic
Satellite images show that shower activity has increased in association with a large tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands. Originally designated Invest 92L on Monday, this wave was no longer deemed worthy by NHC as an “Invest”, and they stopped issuing their suite of model forecasts for the system Tuesday through Thursday. The tropical wave was embedded in a major area of dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert, which was preventing development. However, on Friday morning, NHC resumed their interest in this system, and the latest SHIPS model forecast for 92L shows low wind shear and warm SSTs for the next five days, favorable for development, as it moves west at 10 - 15 mph. The latest 0Z Friday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models—did not show development of the system over the next five days, and the large region of dry air that 92L is embedded in will keep any development slow. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will likely move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday, and be near Hispaniola on Monday or Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC kept their 2-day and 5-day development odds at 10% and 20%, respectively.
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09-04-2016, 10:31 PM
Post: #6
RE: INVEST 92L
JM 9/4

Quote: .
[Image: at201692_sat_2.jpg]

Figure 5. Latest satellite image of 92L.

92L growing more organized
Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that the moderate level of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a large tropical wave passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday (Invest 92L) had increased in intensity and organization since Saturday. The storm was bringing winds near tropical storm-force to the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning. La Desirade (Guadeloupe) reported sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 57mph at 9 am Sunday in a strong rain band that dumped 0.14” (3.6 mm) of rain; at 11 am, winds had decreased to a sustained 27 mph at the site. Some rotation of the storm’s echoes was apparent on Martinique radar, so we have to watch this tropical wave today to monitor it for further signs of development.

A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward westward path, and the storm will move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and be near Jamaica by Wednesday. If 92L does develop, it probably won’t last long. The 8 am EDT Sunday SHIPS model forecast for 92L showed moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots through through Tuesday, rising to the high range, 20 - 35 knots, for the latter part of the week. The latest 0Z Sunday operational runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--did not show development of the system over the next five days. More than 40% of the 70 ensemble members of the 0Z Sunday runs of the GFS and European model did show 92L developing into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Monday, but all of them showed the storm being destroyed by high wind shear and dry air before reaching Jamaica on Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC kept their 2-day and 5-day development odds at 20% and 30%, respectively.

A tropical wave expected to leave the coast of Africa on Tuesday could develop into a tropical depression by next weekend, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, predicted the 00Z Sunday runs of the UKMET and European models. The NASA/GMAO model predicted that Sahara Desert dust and dry air machine would be moderately active during the week, and development of this new tropical wave will likely be hindered by dry air.
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09-06-2016, 07:13 AM
Post: #7
RE: INVEST 92L
down to 10%

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09-06-2016, 04:06 PM
Post: #8
RE: INVEST 92L
We're leaving for the western Caribbean tomorrow evening....

2. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are associated with a
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are unfavorable, and development
of this system is not expected. Nevertheless, periods of locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are still possible over Hispaniola
today in association with the wave and over Jamaica and eastern Cuba
on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
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09-07-2016, 04:20 PM
Post: #9
RE: INVEST 92L
I"m getting on a cruise ship in Fl this weekend too.
(09-06-2016 04:06 PM)LSU TIGERS Wrote:  We're leaving for the western Caribbean tomorrow evening....

2. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are associated with a
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are unfavorable, and development
of this system is not expected. Nevertheless, periods of locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are still possible over Hispaniola
today in association with the wave and over Jamaica and eastern Cuba
on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

[Image: hurr_small.gif]
www.MyFloridaHurricane.Info
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09-09-2016, 01:43 PM
Post: #10
RE: INVEST 92L
Back to Orange, hostile environment ahead, not much chance to develope
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