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TD#8
08-28-2016, 06:46 AM (This post was last modified: 08-28-2016 09:49 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
TD#8
8AM

Quote: TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda.

1. A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central
Cuba continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not conducive for
significant development today while this system moves westward
through the Straits of Florida. The low is expected to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions could become somewhat more conducive for development.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba
through tonight. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread
into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today.
Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few
hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 250
miles west of Bermuda. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, some additional development of this system is
possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. As the low approaches the coast of North Carolina
by mid-week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development. For additional information on this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

3. A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan

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08-28-2016, 09:33 AM
Post: #2
RE: INVEST 91L Carolina threat ?
this is now a TD

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08-29-2016, 07:10 AM
Post: #3
RE: TD#8
5AM

Quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

There has been little change in the structure of the depression
since the last advisory, as it is comprised of a swirl of low-level
clouds accompanied by minimal shower activity. Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that again is the
initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
cyclone.

The initial motion now is 300/9. For the next 36-48 hours, the
depression is expected to move generally northwestward toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast.
After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through
the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and
cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and no
significant changes have been made to the forecast track through 48
hours. After that time, the guidance shows a more eastward motion,
and the forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous
forecast.

The dynamical models still forecast the shear to decrease during
the next 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist
environment. Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing
modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North
Carolina. The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but
it is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty
about whether the environment will become as favorable as the models
are suggesting, and about whether the cyclone will be able to
maintain organized convection. After recurvature, the cyclone is
forecast to merge with a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 32.6N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 33.2N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 34.4N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 35.4N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 38.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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08-29-2016, 03:51 PM
Post: #4
RE: TD#8
5pm
Quote: ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should
monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 74.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This
general motion with a slower forward speed is expected later
this evening, with a gradual turn toward the north forecast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be
near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early
Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expecting within the warning
area, beginning by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

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08-30-2016, 10:00 AM
Post: #5
RE: TD#8
10am
Quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The center of the depression has been difficult to pinpoint even
with radar and aircraft data concurrently this morning, probably
due to the nearby thunderstorm activity. Overall, the depression
remains disorganized, with no significant wind or pressure changes
noted since the last advisory. The initial wind speed remains 30
kt. The environment seems conducive for some strengthening over the
next couple of days while the depression moves near the Gulf Stream
in light-to-moderate shear. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast
shows gradual intensification, and is near, or slightly below the
intensity consensus. Global models indicate the system will become
an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone dissipates
within the frontal zone.

The initial motion is a very uncertain 335/4. The depression
should start a slow northward motion toward a break in the
subtropical ridge later today. After that, it should recurve
northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching
mid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front.
The new forecast track is moved a little to the west of the
previous track during the first 24 hours based primarily on the
initial position, on the western side of the guidance envelope.
After that time, it is similar to the previous track and is blended
back toward the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 34.2N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 34.8N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 35.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 37.2N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 39.4N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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08-30-2016, 03:47 PM
Post: #6
RE: TD#8
5pm

Quote: BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 75.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should
monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 75.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
This general motion is expected tonight with a turn toward the
northeast forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North
Carolina this evening and overnight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are expected
within the warning area, beginning by evening.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

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