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HURRICANE HERMINE
08-18-2016, 05:42 PM (This post was last modified: 09-01-2016 02:13 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Wink HURRICANE HERMINE
.....

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08-18-2016, 05:43 PM
Post: #2
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
2pm
Quote: 1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles southwest of Cabo Verde
Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days
while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Slow development of this system is possible while the
wave moves generally westward through a marginally favorable
environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart

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08-19-2016, 02:14 PM
Post: #3
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
2pm

Quote: 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a disorganized area of cloudiness and shower
activity. Development, if any, during the next couple of days
should be slow to occur as the system encounters a dry and stable
air mass. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves westward at about
15 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

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08-19-2016, 05:01 PM
Post: #4
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
12Z Ensemble "TRENDING" further WSW then a WNW track next week.

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08-20-2016, 04:14 PM (This post was last modified: 08-24-2016 10:16 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #5
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
[Image: storm_99.gif]

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08-22-2016, 07:16 AM
Post: #6
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
8AM

Quote: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles northeast of the
Leeward Islands.

1. Shower activity has increased a little over the past 24 hours in
association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. Dry air near this system is expected to slow
development during the next couple of days days while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development
late this week when the system is expected to move near Hispaniola
and the southeastern and central Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. Satellite imagery this morning suggests that a tropical depression
is forming about 300 miles south-southwest of the southern Cabo
Verde Islands, and if current trends continue, advisories would be
initiated later today. This system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

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08-22-2016, 06:07 PM
Post: #7
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
Bastardi is going gung-ho (or so it seems) on Twitter - not specific yet but keeps talking about a panhandle hit.

Worth paying attention to.

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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08-22-2016, 09:32 PM (This post was last modified: 08-22-2016 09:43 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #8
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
I could see this one taking an Andrew like track with similar intensity if it can stay away from the islands

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08-22-2016, 09:32 PM
Post: #9
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
8pm

Quote: 1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development
during the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development late this week when the system
is expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Tuesday, if necessary.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

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08-23-2016, 07:01 AM
Post: #10
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
8am

Quote: 1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for
development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern
Leeward Island and the Greater Antilles. Large-scale conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near Hispaniola and then the southeastern and central Bahamas. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this disturbance later this morning. Interests from the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these areas
regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult products
issued by your local meteorological offices for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

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