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HURRICANE HERMINE
08-24-2016, 10:31 AM
Post: #31
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
...


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08-24-2016, 10:42 AM
Post: #32
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
Looks like we have at least a TD now expect an upgrade later today

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08-24-2016, 10:46 AM (This post was last modified: 08-24-2016 10:48 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #33
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
The Global Hawk UAV is out dropping snode's:

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 15:29Z
Agency: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Aircraft: Northrop Grumman RQ-4A Global Hawk (UAS) with reg. number N872NA (also known as AV-6)
Mission: Non-Tasked (not tasked by National Hurricane Center) (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Gaston1
Observation Number: 02 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

(08-24-2016 10:42 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Looks like we have at least a TD now expect an upgrade later today
I think so:




Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 15:42Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
Quote:Mandatory Data...


Observation Time: 15:41Z on Wednesday
Coordinates: 17.9N 63.6W
Location: 166 statute miles (267 km) to the ESE (102°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
Pressure Altitude: 180 meters (591 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 170° at 45 knots (From the S at ~ 51.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 21°C (70°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C (64°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (29.83 inHg), extrapolated
Additional Data...


Estimated Surface Wind: From 170° at 50 knots (From the S at ~ 57.5 mph)

Remarks Section...


Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)

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08-24-2016, 11:04 AM (This post was last modified: 08-26-2016 01:01 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #34
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
[Image: avn_lalo-animated.gif]
Quote: SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. Updated: An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft currently
investigating the broad low pressure area and tropical wave near
the northern Leeward Islands has found winds to tropical storm force
in a few squalls near the northernmost Leeward Islands. Squalls to
tropical storm force can be expected over the extreme northern
Leeward Islands and portions of the northern U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon. The reconnaissance aircraft mission is
ongoing to determine whether or not a tropical cyclone has formed.

Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally
conducive for additional development, this system could become a
tropical depression or tropical storm at any time during the next
few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across
the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and the Bahamas. Strong winds, heavy rains, and possible flash
floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Brown

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08-24-2016, 11:24 AM
Post: #35
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
Retweeted Greg Bracco (@ThisAMDude):
#99L moving through St. Maarten blowing pretty good here all morning. https://t.co/81tN5MadC1

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08-24-2016, 11:54 AM
Post: #36
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
This one may be a named storm by tomorrow.
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08-24-2016, 01:01 PM
Post: #37
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
Looks like it's getting badly sheared right now - will it hold?

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08-24-2016, 01:23 PM
Post: #38
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
Any new recon info ? I am driving down the road and posting doesn't feel like the safe thing to do Smile

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08-24-2016, 01:25 PM
Post: #39
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
2pm

Quote: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. A strong tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure is
moving westward across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Reports from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft and surface
observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined
circulation, but it nevertheless is producing tropical-storm-force
winds in squalls over the northernmost Leeward Islands and adjacent
waters. Although upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for additional development, this system could
become a tropical storm or tropical depression at any time during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development by the weekend when the system is near the
central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, squalls to tropical storm force can be
expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the
northern U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon. Strong
winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are
expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next
couple of days. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National
Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

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08-24-2016, 01:26 PM
Post: #40
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
LET'S KEEP THIS IN MIND AND NOT GET TO HYPED:


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