Post Reply 
HURRICANE HERMINE
09-01-2016, 08:57 PM
Post: #311
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
Tried a few cases in both towns. Interesting places to say the least; good folks in both.
(09-01-2016 08:27 PM)Alex Wrote:  The Big Bend Counties with some tornado warnings. Dixie and Lafayette are mostly rural with lots of wetland areas. Cross City and Mayo are the county seats.
Quote: TORNADO WARNING
FLC029-067-020200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0032.160902T0119Z-160902T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
919 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DIXIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 918 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CROSS CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MAYO AROUND 1000 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
FLETCHER SPRINGS...GUARANTO SPRINGS...ALTON...FLETCHER...HATCH
BEND...SAN PEDRO JUNCTION...HINES AND GRADY.
Quote: TORNADO WARNING
FLC067-020130-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0031.160902T0107Z-160902T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
907 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 907 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF MAYO...MOVING NORTH AT 50
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MAYO AROUND 925 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
BUCKVILLE...SAN PEDRO JUNCTION...COOKS HAMMOCK...ALTON AND TOWNSEND.

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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09-01-2016, 10:32 PM
Post: #312
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
10pm

Quote: 000
WTNT44 KNHC 020300
TCDAT4

HURRICANE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Hermine has gradually intensified since the last
forecast advisory. The plane measured 86-kt flight-level winds
southeast of the center at 850 mb with SFMR and dropsonde data
suggesting winds of at least 65 kt. Based on these data and a
earlier 983 mb central pressure, the initial intensity is set at 70
kt.

The initial motion remains 030/12. The flow on the eastern side of
a mid-level trough over the southeastern United States should cause
Hermine to move north-northeastward to northeastward with an
increase in forward speed during the next 36 hours. The track
guidance is tightly clustered during this period, and this part of
the forecast track is an update of the previous track. At 48 hours
and beyond, Hermine is expected to interact with a baroclinic trough
over the northeastern United States. The track guidance become
rather divergent during this period, with the GFS and ECMWF models
showing a looping track close to the coast, while the UKMET and
Canadian models show a slow motion somewhat farther offshore. The
new forecast track compromises between these solutions and shows a
slow northeastward motion during this time. Regardless of the exact
track, Hermine should linger for several days near the northeastern
U. S. coast as a vigorous low pressure system.

A little more strengthening is possible during the last few hours
before landfall. After landfall, Hermine is expected to weaken as
it crosses the southeastern United States, eventually emerging from
the North Carolina coast as a tropical storm. The cyclone is
expected to re-intensify as an extratropical low during its
interaction with the baroclinic trough. The forecast intensities
have been raised for this part of the forecast based on global model
forecasts, and it is possible that they are a little conservative.
Later in the forecast period, vertical shear decreases, and the
cyclone could be situated over marginally warm waters. Therefore
there is the possibility of the system regaining some tropical
characteristics in 4-5 days, although this remains speculative.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As landfall occurs, it is important to not focus on the exact
forecast track. Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a
large extent of dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
flooding rains well to the east and southeast of the path of the
center.

2. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still
producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land. NWS policy
allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm
watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system
continues to pose a significant threat to life and property.
NHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be
invoked for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone,
NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning
products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to
land.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 29.7N 84.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 31.5N 82.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 33.6N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1200Z 35.6N 75.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z 37.0N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z 39.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z 39.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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09-02-2016, 02:13 AM
Post: #313
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
Been raining here since midnight with that long outer band spiraling in from the Gulf. A few storm reports:
Quote:667
NWUS52 KTBW 020537
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
137 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM STORM SURGE CEDAR KEY 29.15N 83.04W
09/02/2016 U0.00 FT LEVY FL EMERGENCY MNGR

SURGE WATERS ENTERING HOMES IN CEDAR KEY.

0100 AM STORM SURGE OZELLO 28.83N 82.67W
09/02/2016 U0.00 FT CITRUS FL EMERGENCY MNGR

SURGE WATERS ENTERING HOMES IN OZELLO.

0100 AM STORM SURGE HERNANDO BEACH 28.47N 82.66W
09/02/2016 U0.00 FT HERNANDO FL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER ENTERING HOMES IN HERNANDO BEACH. EVACUATIONS
TAKING PLACE BY BOAT.

0100 AM STORM SURGE NEW PORT RICHEY 28.25N 82.72W
09/02/2016 U0.00 FT PASCO FL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER ENTERING HOMES AT GREEN KEY AND HUDSON BEACH.
EVACUATIONS TAKING PLACE BY HUMVEE.

&&
$$
FLEMING

Quote:
561
NWUS52 KTAE 020549
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
149 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM HURRICANE 3 ENE TALLAHASSEE 30.45N 84.24W
09/02/2016 LEON FL EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE MEADOW BROOK AREA.
&&
$$
MOORE

AARoads
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09-02-2016, 08:06 AM
Post: #314
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
4am
Quote: 000
WTNT44 KNHC 020843
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

Hermine made landfall near St. Marks, Florida, around 0530 UTC with
70-kt winds. Since that time radar data and surface observations
indicate that the center has continued to move inland. The radar
presentation has deteriorated, and it is estimated that Hermine
has weakened to tropical storm status with 60-kt winds. Additional
weakening is anticipated while the cyclone moves farther inland, but
it could reinvigorate as an extratropical cyclone when it moves
over water and interacts with a baroclinic trough in about 48 hours.

The best estimate of the initial motion 025/12 kt. Hermine is
embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed during the next day
or two. Track models are in very good agreement during this
period. After that time, when Hermine begins to interact with
a baroclinic trough, the cyclone should slow down significantly
and begin to meander. On days 3-5, the track guidance becomes rather
divergent, decreasing confidence in the forecast. The NHC
prediction keeps an extratropical cyclone moving little or drifting
northward a few hundred miles off the northeastern U.S coast during
that time. There is a possibility that the system could regain some
tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, but this remains uncertain as
indicated in the previous NHC forecast.

KEY MESSAGE:

1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while
still producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land. NWS
policy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm
watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system
continues to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and
the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked
for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC
will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning
products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to
land.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 30.8N 83.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 32.5N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/0600Z 34.5N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1800Z 36.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 04/0600Z 37.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 38.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z 38.5N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 39.0N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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09-02-2016, 10:34 AM
Post: #315
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
10am

Quote: TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

Hermine is moving over southeastern Georgia and has weakened
steadily since landfall. Convective tops have warmed, but several
land stations have shown sustained winds near tropical storm force
near the center with some gusts close to 50 kt. Stronger winds are
also found over the Atlantic coastal waters, with buoy 41008
reporting winds around 40 kt in the last hour. Based on this, the
initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory. The central
pressure, based on surface data, is about 989 mb. While the center
of Hermine will remain over land for the next 24 hours or so, I
don't expect the winds over water to decrease much, so the NHC
forecast shows no change during that time. Strengthening through a
combination of diabatic and baroclinic processes is shown after the
system moves offshore. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all show Hermine
interacting with a potent upper-level shortwave trough in 2-3 days,
and the system could re-strengthen to near hurricane force at that
time. Slow weakening is expected later in the period, but Hermine
is expected to remain a dangerous cyclone through 5 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is based largely on global model guidance, and is
a bit higher than the previous one.

The initial motion estimate is 040/16. Hermine should continue
moving northeastward for the next 36 to 48 hours ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough. After that time, the cyclone
should turn northward and nearly stall out as it interacts with the
upper-level shortwave off the mid-Atlantic coast. A slow
northeastward motion is shown at days 4 and 5, but there is a fair
bit of model spread late in the period and confidence in the details
of the track forecast at those times remains low.

Note that the NHC forecast shows Hermine as a post-tropical cyclone
in about 48 hours, but model fields do not show it undergoing a
full extratropical transition, as it instead appears to acquire a
warm seclusion structure. There is a possibility that the system
could regain some tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, but this
remains uncertain.

Based on the latest forecast, tropical storm watches and warnings
have been expanded northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

KEY MESSAGE:

1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while
still producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land. NWS
policy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm
watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system
continues to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and
the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked
for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC
will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning
products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to
land.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 31.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/0000Z 33.5N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 35.4N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0000Z 36.7N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 04/1200Z 37.5N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1200Z 38.1N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/1200Z 38.8N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 07/1200Z 39.3N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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09-02-2016, 10:44 AM
Post: #316
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
Did Hermine pass directly over Tallahassee? I couldn't tell from what I could find.
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09-02-2016, 10:58 AM
Post: #317
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE




NWS Tampa shared this on FB today. The drone footage shows the extent of floodwaters in Crystal River. The video shows U.S. 19/98 west from SR 44 to Kings Bay.

(09-02-2016 10:44 AM)Nolaken Wrote:  Did Hermine pass directly over Tallahassee? I couldn't tell from what I could find.
A friend of mine posted that a friend of his who lives 10 minutes from FSU had trees fall all around her house and take out her shed.

Some more NWS storm reports from Tallahassee:

Quote:1230 AM TROPICAL STORM 2 NNW TALLAHASSEE 30.47N 84.29W
09/02/2016 LEON FL NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE SNAPPED AND CRUSHED ABOVE GROUND POOL IN BACK
YARD OF RESIDENCE ON HAGAN DRIVE. SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS
DOWN IN FRONT YARD.

1230 AM HURRICANE 2 NNW TALLAHASSEE 30.47N 84.29W
09/02/2016 LEON FL NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE UPROOTED ONTO A HOME AT THE INTERSECTION OF
VONCILE AVENUE AND GIBBS DRIVE.

1230 AM HURRICANE 2 NNW TALLAHASSEE 30.46N 84.29W
09/02/2016 LEON FL NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE BLOCKING THE ROAD ON GIBBS DRIVE JUST NORTH OF
THARPE STREET.

1232 AM HURRICANE 3 NW TALLAHASSEE 30.48N 84.31W
09/02/2016 LEON FL PUBLIC

LARGE TREE DOWN ON BUILDING.

Reports from around the time of landfall:

Quote:0105 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 W TALLAHASSEE 30.44N 84.31W
09/02/2016 M39.00 MPH LEON FL MESONET

SUSTAINED 39MPH WITH GUST TO 49MPH.

0120 AM HURRICANE 2 W TALLAHASSEE 30.44N 84.32W
09/02/2016 LEON FL MESONET

64 MPH WIND GUST AT FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY WEATHERSTEM
SITE.

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09-02-2016, 03:06 PM
Post: #318
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
2pm

Quote: [b]2:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 2[/b]

Location: 32.5°N 81.3°W

Moving: NE at 18 mph

Min pressure: 993 mb

Max sustained: 50 mph

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09-03-2016, 05:13 AM
Post: #319
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
5AM

Quote:


000
WTNT44 KNHC 030855
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

Satellite, radar and surface observations continue to show that the
circulation of Hermine is elongated with most of the convection well
removed from the area of lowest pressure. It appears that Hermine
has already begun the process of extratropical transition. Based on
earlier satellite-derived winds, the initial intensity remains 50
kt. These winds are occurring over water well removed from the
center in the southeast quadrant.

As indicated in the previous NHC discussion, during the next day or
two, Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a
mid- to upper-level baroclinic trough that is developing over the
eastern United States. After that time, the dynamical models
forecast the upper trough to cut off directly over the surface
cyclone, and the surface cyclone could regain some tropical cyclone
characteristics, even though it would be under the upper-level low.
By then, the strongest winds are expected to be closer to the
center. Nevertheless, the dynamical guidance forecasts Hermine to
strengthen during this evolution regardless of its final structure,
and the NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one.
Given the uncertainty in the structure and evolution, the forecast
keeps the cyclone as post-tropical after 24 hours.

The initial motion is difficult to estimate given that Hermine's
circulation is elongated, but cyclone appears to be moving toward
the east-northeast or 060 degrees at 18 kt. The cyclone is forecast
to turn more toward the northeast in about 24 hours, and then turn
northward with a significant decrease in forward speed as
interacts with the upper-level trough, and the steering currents
weaken. After day 4, the cyclone should then move eastward with the
mid-latitude flow. The track forecast is a blend between the
previous NHC one and the multi-model consensus TVCN.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still
producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land. NWS policy
allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches
and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues
to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS
Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for
Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
for as long as the system remains a significant threat to land.

2. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how many of the
characteristics of a tropical cyclone Hermine will have while it is
off of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England States.
Regardless of its structure, Hermine is expected to be a vigorous
storm with a large wind field that will cause wind, storm surge and
surf hazards along the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 35.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 03/1800Z 36.5N 74.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 04/0600Z 37.3N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0600Z 38.5N 72.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 06/0600Z 39.0N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 07/0600Z 39.5N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/0600Z 40.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Avila

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09-04-2016, 06:07 PM (This post was last modified: 09-04-2016 06:09 PM by pcbjr.)
Post: #320
RE: HURRICANE HERMINE
Hope all fared well. Lost power at 1:00AM Thursday and just got electricity and internet back (other than my tablet and phone and I wasn't posting to save battery) - weird that we got hit that hard in Gainesville - lots of big old trees went down - maybe a micro tornado? Reports were over 30K w/o power in the city - have not verified.

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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