HURRICANE HERMINE

[ROLLTIDE]

8PM

Quote: 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser
Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better defined. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this
system could become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the
Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions could become
more conducive later this week while the system moves near the
southeastern and central Bahamas. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests from the islands of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[hurricaneguy]

Looks like it's really starting to get with it tonight. Maybe a depression by Thursday. We'll see if it misses Hispaniola.

Also just noticed I've been on here for 10 years. Flown by wow!

[Joe-Nathan]

Difference of GFS models:

1st - Last nights 18UTC RUN:





2nd - This mornings 06 UTC GFS:

---

Found a nifty web tool:


http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/model...atestrun=1

[ROLLTIDE]

8am

Quote: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate
that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located over the northern Leeward Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are
showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack
a well-defined circulation. Although environmental conditions are
currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this
system could become a tropical depression at any time during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this
morning. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Brown

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM IMPACT WX:
Disturbance 26 Advisory 21

Issued: Wednesday, August 24th 2016 8:28am CDT

Quote:Current Position: 17.4N / 63.6
Geographical Reference: 170 miles ESE of San Juan
Max Sustained Winds: 35 mph gusting 45 mph
Movement: West-northwest at 19 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 (0 size / 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 (14 size / 9 intensity)
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly getting better organized
Development Chances Over the Next 7 Days: 90 percent
Forecast Confidence: Below Average


Changes From Our Previous Advisory
There are no significant changes in the track, but we are now indicating that peak intensity in the Gulf of Mexico will reach 105 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane. Development chances have been increased from 80 percent to 90 percent.


Our Forecast
It is looking much more likely that this potential storm will not have an avenue to turn northward to the east of Florida. Building high pressure along the East U.S. Coast this weekend should block its northward progress around the northern Bahamas and impart a westerly motion across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday night. Once in the Gulf, there is much uncertainty as to when a northerly turn will commence. Although our forecast is indicating a landfall on the Mississippi coast next Wednesday, landfall could easily be as far west as the Texas/Louisiana border or as far east as the Florida Panhandle. However, if recent model trends continue, then we are more likely to adjust the track farther west into Louisiana than farther east toward the Florida Panhandle.
Concerning intensity, we are being conservative in forecasting a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf, given the quite favorable conditions across the Gulf of Mexico. The European model continues to predict a Category 4 hurricane striking the Gulf coast. That is a possibility. We are waiting for better model agreement before indicating a stronger hurricane in the Gulf.


Expected Impacts On Land
Northeast Caribbean Islands: Gusty winds and squalls are possible through early Thursday as this disturbance moves across the region. Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches with locally heavier amounts up to 8 inches will be possible, resulting in flooding in some areas.


Northern Bahamas to South Florida Peninsula: Tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions are becoming increasingly likely this coming weekend, resulting in scattered power outages. Heavy squalls may produce 5-10 inches of rain, resulting in significant flooding of some areas.


Expected Impacts Offshore
Northern Gulf Lease Areas: Squalls could reach the deepwater lease areas offshore southeast Louisiana as early as Monday afternoon. That means that the last guaranteed day for good helicopter flying weather may be Sunday. It's possible that much of Monday will be flyable, but you can't count on that. Hurricane conditions are likely by Tuesday afternoon/evening as the center tracks toward the mid Gulf coast.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4PM EDT/AST
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

[cajun saint]

Everyone needs to pay attention to this storm, it's been 10 years since we've been threatened by a storm like this. Should be slow to develop in the Atlantic but if it makes the Gulf of Mexico it will have the chance to intensify quickly. Now's a good time to check on your supplies and make preparations, should be a busy weekend coming up here in South Louisiana, stay safe.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

If anybody has any site related trouble email me @ Hardcoreweather @ G-mail

Welcome back

[grammie]

(08-24-2016 10:18 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  If anybody has any site related trouble email me @ Hardcoreweather @ G-mail

Welcome back

Site looks great! Will be watching 99L and making my annual donation to Hardcore Weather!! HEY -- where's the "donate" button??? Thanks for all you do.

[ROLLTIDE]

(08-24-2016 10:22 AM)grammie Wrote:  

(08-24-2016 10:18 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  If anybody has any site related trouble email me @ Hardcoreweather @ G-mail

Welcome back

Site looks great! Will be watching 99L and making my annual donation to Hardcore Weather!! HEY -- where's the "donate" button??? Thanks for all you do.

Thanks for the kind words we never added it back when we switched forum software and servers years ago