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HURRICANE HERMINE
08-23-2016, 07:46 AM (This post was last modified: 08-23-2016 07:48 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #11
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
FROM THE FOLKS AT IMPACT WX:


Disturbance 26 Advisory 16

Issued: Tuesday, August 23rd 2016 2:41am CDT
Quote:Current Position: 16.5N, 55.0W
Geographical Reference: 420 miles east of Guadeloupe
Max Sustained Winds: 30 mph gusting 40 mph
Movement: West-northwest at 16 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Development Chances Over the Next 7 Days: 60 percent
Forecast Confidence: Below Average


Changes From Our Previous Advisory
No changes.


Our Forecast
Disturbance 26 is expected to track to the west to west-northwest over the next several days. By Wednesday, it should be tracking near the islands of the northeast Caribbean. By Friday, it is predicted to be near the southern Bahamas. Over the weekend, conditions may become favorable for development as the system slowly tracks near or over the Bahamas. Our current model guidance is quite split when it comes to the forecast of this system over the weekend. We think there is a 60 percent chance that it will become a tropical depression or tropical storm over the weekend near the Bahamas.
From there, the track will depend on the placement of an upper level ridge. If the ridge is strong and to the north of the system, then it will be steered into Florida. If the ridge is weaker, then the system could track north or northeast. At this time, we are leaning toward the stronger ridge scenario.


Expected Impacts On Land
Northeast Caribbean Islands: Gusty winds and squalls are possible early Wednesday through Thursday as this disturbance moves across the region. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches with locally heavier amounts up to 8 inches will be possible, resulting in flooding in some areas.


Expected Impacts Offshore
Trinidad: No impacts are expected for offshore areas near Trinidad.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4AM EDT/AST
Meteorologist: Cameron Self


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08-23-2016, 08:12 AM
Post: #12
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk



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08-23-2016, 08:15 AM
Post: #13
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
Remember if the last few years have taught us anything this storm will either A: decouple and dissipate, B: keep heading West and slam into Hispaniola, C: models keep showing major landfall impact on the US coast and then suddenly all move to recurve out to sea.

I'll take C for $100
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08-23-2016, 08:28 AM
Post: #14
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
BIRD IS IN THE AIR:





AF309 - Miss. #01 - Atlantic

High Density (6)

Geopotential Height: 3,223 meters (10,574 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 694.5 mb
Location: 112 statute miles (180 km) to the ESE (116°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).

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08-23-2016, 11:53 AM (This post was last modified: 08-23-2016 11:56 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #15
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW REM OF FIONA WILL INTERACT WITH 99L


Disturbance 26 Advisory 17

Issued: Tuesday, August 23rd 2016 8:51am CDT
Quote:Current Position: 16.4N / 56.7W
Geographical Reference: 300 miles east of Guadeloupe
Max Sustained Winds: 35 mph gusting 45 mph
Movement: West-northwest at 19 mph
Organizational Trend: Slowly getting better organized
Development Chances Over the Next 7 Days: 70 percent
Forecast Confidence: Below Average


Changes From Our Previous Advisory
We have made a significant adjustment to the track beyond day 5. There is increasing model support for high pressure building across the eastern U.S. in advance of this system reaching the Bahamas this weekend. Building high pressure to its north would steer the center westward across the southern Florida Peninsula and into the northeast Gulf by early next week. Our new track reflects this.


Our Forecast
Disturbance 26 continues to slowly become better-organized this morning. Our track takes the center over the northern Bahamas by Sunday morning. At that time, we think that the disturbance will have strengthened to a tropical storm. From the northern Bahamas, high pressure to the north should steer the center westward and into the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday night, possibly as a moderate tropical storm. Once in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by midday Monday, conditions will be favorable for steady strengthening as the storm turns northward just west of the Florida Peninsula. Final landfall may occur next Wednesday in the central to eastern Florida Panhandle, quite possibly as a hurricane.
Note that unless there are some significant changes to model guidance after this morning's runs, we will be going to full advisories with wind radii and trigger reports on our next update by 4PM EDT this afternoon. We are also likely going to put the northern Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula under Response Plan Activator - Positive today, meaning that residents there should activate their hurricane response plans.
We have included another TRAC graphic (Threatened Regions from Active Cyclones) in this advisory. This graphic depicts the probability of the center of Disturbance 26 passing within 125 miles of any point, based on the ensemble members and operational runs of the American, Canadian, and European models. This ensemble-based guidance is in good agreement that Disturbance 26 will reach the northern Bahamas in 5 days then take a westerly turn toward south Florida. While it is still possible that this potential storm will turn northward east of Florida and not enter the Gulf of Mexico, that scenario is looking less likely.


Expected Impacts On Land
Northeast Caribbean Islands: Gusty winds and squalls are possible early Wednesday through Thursday as this disturbance moves across the region. Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches with locally heavier amounts up to 8 inches will be possible, resulting in flooding in some areas.


Northern Bahamas to South Florida Peninsula: Tropical storm conditions are becoming increasingly likely this coming weekend, resulting in scattered power outages. Heavy squalls may product 5-10 inches of rain, resulting in significant flooding of some areas.


Expected Impacts Offshore
Trinidad: No impacts are expected for offshore areas near Trinidad.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4PM EDT/AST
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

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08-23-2016, 12:56 PM
Post: #16
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
[Image: storm_99.gif]

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08-23-2016, 01:22 PM
Post: #17
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
Center looks further south to me so it could be toast if it hits Hispanola

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08-23-2016, 03:03 PM (This post was last modified: 08-24-2016 06:02 AM by uptjeff.)
Post: #18
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
Haven't been here in a while, but I'm back. Good to see some familiar names. Looking forward to a fun hurricane season.
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08-23-2016, 05:21 PM (This post was last modified: 08-23-2016 05:21 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #19
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
I think that Alabama has won a couple of titles since we last had cane make landfall in the US Smile

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08-23-2016, 05:21 PM (This post was last modified: 08-23-2016 05:22 PM by pcbjr.)
Post: #20
RE: INVEST 99L watch this one like a hawk
(08-23-2016 03:03 PM)uptjeff Wrote:  Haven't been here in a while, but I'm back. Good to some familiar names. Looking forward to a fun hurricane season.

Fun is anything with a name, from now until November, far, far, far away from here :~)

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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