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TROPICAL STORM FIONA
08-16-2016, 12:32 PM (This post was last modified: 08-17-2016 05:45 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Rainbow TROPICAL STORM FIONA
.....

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08-16-2016, 12:36 PM
Post: #2
RE: INVEST 98L
..


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08-17-2016, 08:04 AM
Post: #3
RE: INVEST 98L
...

Quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016

The depression's cloud pattern is gradually becoming better
organized. It consists of a central mass of deep convection and a
newly formed band over the northern half of the circulation. The
low-level center appears to still be located near the northeastern
edge of the main convective mass, likely due to some northeasterly
shear. Satellite classifications are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, and
support maintaining the initial intensity estimate of 30 kt.

The northeasterly shear is forecast to decrease while the cyclone
moves over marginally warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours.
These two factors should favor some intensification during this time
frame. However, the global models, and the ECMWF in particular,
show the cyclone moving into a much drier environment after 48 hours
and encountering strong southwesterly shear in association with a
mid- to upper-level trough. Thus weakening is forecast to begin by
day 3 despite the cyclone's trek over warmer waters, and there is
the possibility that the system could degenerate into a remnant low
by day 4 or 5 as depicted in the ECMWF. The new NHC intensity
forecast is somewhat higher than the previous one and the multi-
model consensus in the short term but lower later in the forecast
period and a little below most of the guidance.

The depression has been responding to a weakness in the subtropical
ridge between 40w and 50w by moving on a northwesterly track, and
the initial motion estimate is 305/13. The track guidance remains
split into two distinct camps, with GFS-based deterministic models
and GFS ensemble members showing a deeper system moving more
poleward. The ECMWF and its ensemble solutions are much farther to
the south as a result of the model's forecast of a weaker, shallower
system moving on a more westerly course. Based on the assumption
of a weaker system, the NHC track forecast is adjusted toward the
ECMWF solution, and is well south of the previous one and a little
to the left of the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.2N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 14.3N 36.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 15.5N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 16.8N 39.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 17.8N 41.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 19.2N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 21.6N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 23.6N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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08-17-2016, 05:44 PM
Post: #4
RE: TD#6
5PM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
500 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016

During the past 6 hours, the tropical cyclone has made a transition
from a large outer banding pattern to more of a CDO-type feature.
Also, a 1635Z SSMI overpass confirmed the tight inner-core structure
noted in the two earlier ASCAT passes. Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a 1225Z ASCAT-A
overpass indicated winds of near 35 kt at that time. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt and the cyclone is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Fiona.

The initial motion estimate is 305/14 kt. The latest model guidance
has come into much better agreement with the previous track
forecast, with the GFS model shifting a little farther south and the
ECMWF making a significant shift to the north due to that model not
weakening Fiona as much now as compared to previous forecast cycles.
These model changes have resulted in a northward shift in the
consensus models TVCN and GFEX. Given the much better agreement in
the NHC model guidance, the new track forecast was only shifted
slightly southward of the previous advisory track after 72 hours in
order to move closer to the consensus models.

There are no significant changes to the previous intensity forecast.
Fiona is a compact tropical cyclone with a radius of maximum winds
of 15 nmi or less, which makes the storm susceptible to sharp
fluctuations in intensity. The aforementioned SSMI satellite pass
also indicated that the small inner-core region of Fiona now appears
to be insulated from the very dry mid-level air that had earlier
eroded the cyclone's convection. That, along with low shear
conditions and marginal SSTs near 27C, should allow for some gradual
strengthening for the next 36-48 hours, assuming that the cyclone
can mix out any occasional intrusions of dry air. By 72 hours, the
vertical shear is forecast to increase to around 20 kt from the
southwest, which should act to arrest the intensification process
and perhaps even induce some slight weakening. However, by 96 hours
and beyond, the shear is forecast to steadily decrease when the
cyclone will be moving over SSTs greater than 28C. These conditions
could allow for the compact cyclone to maintain a steady intensity
despite being embedded in mid-level humidity values of near 50
percent. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN
through 48 hours, and then lies just below the Decay-SHIPS model at
72-120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 15.1N 37.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 16.0N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.0N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 17.8N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.7N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 20.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 22.6N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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08-18-2016, 03:29 PM
Post: #5
RE: TROPICAL STORM FIONA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 181431
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016

...FIONA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 40.5W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 40.5 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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08-18-2016, 04:11 PM
Post: #6
RE: TROPICAL STORM FIONA
The stuff rolling off the African coast will be the stuff that we will need to watch . Hopefully it stays the heck away from LA Smile

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08-18-2016, 04:54 PM
Post: #7
RE: TROPICAL STORM FIONA
(08-18-2016 04:11 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  The stuff rolling off the African coast will be the stuff that we will need to watch . Hopefully it stays the heck away from LA Smile

And the Keys for at least the next week. Heading down there Saturday for a week of doing the Duval Crawling! Cool

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08-18-2016, 05:41 PM
Post: #8
RE: TROPICAL STORM FIONA
99L is one that we need to watch

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