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HURRICANE EARL
08-02-2016, 03:58 PM (This post was last modified: 08-02-2016 03:59 PM by Nolaken.)
Post: #21
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
000
WTNT35 KNHC 022034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...TROPICAL STORM EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE HONDURAS BAY
ISLANDS ON ITS WAY TO BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 81.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 81.5 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track,
the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay
Islands Wednesday afternoon and then be very near the Belize
coast early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be near hurricane
strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane
conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane
watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT45 KNHC 022034
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours
ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast
quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central
pressure of 1002 mb. Another Air Force plane will be in Earl
tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The
satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day,
and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial
intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a
little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some
strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize.

It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is
now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is
embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge.
This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to
west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across
Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After
that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the
Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good
confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very
closely follows the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 16.4N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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08-02-2016, 04:50 PM
Post: #22
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
VORTEX MESSAGE FRM MISS PIGGY:



Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 21:35Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2016
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: First flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 21:07:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°16'N 81°20'W (16.2667N 81.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 statute miles (336 km) to the S (179°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,101m (10,174ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 53kts (~ 61.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 35kts (From the ENE at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (324°) from the flight level center at 21:03:45Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NW (314°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 39kts (From the ESE at 45mph)
General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."
(Quotes from the National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)

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08-02-2016, 04:51 PM
Post: #23
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
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08-02-2016, 05:48 PM
Post: #24
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
any site problems ?

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08-02-2016, 06:36 PM (This post was last modified: 08-02-2016 07:23 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #25
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 22:44Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2016
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: First flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 22:20:23Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°17'N 81°45'W (16.2833N 81.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 statute miles (337 km) to the S (187°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,075m (10,089ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the ESE (116°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 198° at 44kts (From the SSW at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the ESE (116°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,063m (10,049ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...



JM

Quote: Tropical Storm Earl Forms in Caribbean


By: Bob Henson , 5:11 PM GMT on August 02, 2016



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After racing across the eastern Caribbean as an strong tropical wave, Invest 97L has finally been dubbed Tropical Storm Earl. Late Tuesday morning, an Air Force hurricane-hunter mission found that Earl had developed a closed circulation center with a minimum central pressure of 1001 millibars. Flight-level winds reached 52 knots (57 mph) just after noon EDT Tuesday. In an special update issued at noon EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center placed the center of newly christened Earl about 535 miles east of Belize City, Belize, with top sustained surface winds of 45 mph. Carrying a large though somewhat disorganized assortment of showers and thunderstorms (convection), Earl was moving westward at 22 mph, a pace expected to slow over the next 24-48 hours as Earl approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Even before Earl’s designation as a tropical storm, high winds in the Dominican Republic brought power lines down and sparked a fire aboard a bus, killing 6 and injuring 12 people, according to weather.com. Three others were killed after a tour boat overturned, although that incident had not yet been confirmed to be weather-related. The Meteorological Service of Jamaica issued a tropical storm warning for 97L on Monday night, and on Tuesday the Cayman Islands National Weather Service was cautioning small craft to exercise caution in open waters. Surface winds at Kingston, Jamaica, peaked at 29 mph early Tuesday morning, with only light rain observed, although showers and squalls have affected other parts of Jamaica.

[Image: earl-recon-1604Z-8.2.16.jpg]
Figure 1. Flight-level wind data gathered by an Air Force hurricane-hunter flight through 1604Z (12:04 pm EDT) Tuesday, August 2, 2016. The light westerly winds to the west of Earl’s center (the dot with the “1002”-mb label) showed that a closed circulation was evident at flight level. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

[Image: earl-ir-1615Z-8.2.16.jpg]
Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Earl at 1615Z (12:15 pm EDT) Tuesday, August 2, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

What took Earl so long?
During its time as 97L, Earl puzzled tropical weather watchers and forecasters with its dramatic appearance on satellite coupled with its inability to qualify as a tropical depression or tropical storm. In part, this is because Earl has been more organized aloft than at the surface. During the classic nocturnal peaks of convection (shower and thunderstorm activity) on both Sunday and Monday night, 97L developed a large mass of convection near its center, with fairly symmetric upper-level outflow evident in all directions on satellite imagery. Because 97L’s rapid westward motion of 25-30 mph was roughly in line with upper-level winds, there was little vertical wind shear affecting the system, thus helping the convection to remain symmetric and well structured. The crucial ingredient missing at the surface was a closed center of circulation around which surface winds were rotating. In order to qualify as a tropical depression or tropical storm, a closed surface wind circulation is required by definitions employed by NHC and the World Meteorological Organization for the North Atlantic and East Pacific. Surface winds measured on Monday by the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) aboard Europe’s MetOp-B satellite showed easterly winds of 30-40 mph on the north side of 97L, but southerly rather than westerly winds on its south side. An Air Force reconnaissance flight into 97L was aborted due to mechanical difficulties on Monday afternoon, so Tuesday morning’s flight was the first to gather data from within the storm.

[Image: earl-track-8.2.16.jpg]
Figure 3. WU depiction of the NHC track forecast for Tropical Storm Earl issued at noon EDT Tuesday, August 2, 2016.

The outlook for 97L
Although Earl kept forecasters guessing as to exactly when it would become a tropical storm, forecast models have come into increasing solidarity on Earl’s prognosis. A sprawling area of high pressure to the north of Earl will keep the storm moving on a general westerly path. Even though it will slow down a bit over the next day or two, Earl still has less than two days to gather strength before it makes landfall late Wednesday, most likely in Belize but possibly on the far southeast Mexican coast of the Yucatan peninsula. The official NHC outlook keeps Earl just below hurricane strength at landfall late Wednesday night. Wind shear is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain at a light to moderate 10 - 20 mph, although parts of the circulation are being affected by stronger shear to the north associated with a slow-moving upper-level trough over the northwest Atlantic. We will have to keep a close eye on Earl tonight and Wednesday, as sea-surface temperatures are more than 1°C above average over the northwestern Caribbean, and Earl’s path will put it on the south edge of an area of of extremely high oceanic heat content that covers most of the northwest Caribbean. These waters would support rapid intensification if other conditions were favorable, although Earl may not be well enough organized to take full advantage of this oceanic rocket fuel.

The 00Z Tuesday ensemble runs of the ECMWF model were unanimous in keeping Earl as a weak tropical storm, while most members of the 06Z Tuesday GFS ensemble brought Earl up to strong tropical storm strength. The 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS statistical model gives Earl a 21% chance of a 24-hour increase of 25 knots in sustained winds, which would bring Earl to the threshold of hurricane status. Although the prospect is unlikely, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Earl become a minimal hurricane just before landfall, as predicted by the 06Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model. We’re very lucky that Earl is moving across the Caribbean so quickly, or else it could have become a much more formidable storm. If Earl remains far enough north on its trek across the Yucatan, it may have a brief window to reorganize across the southern Bay of Campeche, where the short-lived Tropical Storm Danielle formed in late June. It’s worth noting that Earl will be the fifth of all five named systems in the Atlantic this year to make landfall somewhere.
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08-02-2016, 07:38 PM
Post: #26
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
.
.
Another hunter out of Biloxi turned around just after reaching the edge of the storm...guess there are still maintenance issues....thank heavens the P3 Orion out of Tampa was able to do a good survey
.
.
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08-02-2016, 08:58 PM
Post: #27
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL



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08-03-2016, 06:15 AM
Post: #28
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
Earl can see now

Quote: TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

Microwave imagery since 01Z indicates that Earl has formed a
mid-level eye, and ASCAT data near 02Z and 03Z suggests that the
circulation center has reformed to the south of the previous
forecast track underneath the eye feature. Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt, and that will be the initial
intensity. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate Earl.

The latest satellite imagery suggests that the track excursion
caused by the reformation is over, and that Earl is resuming a
westward motion of 280/12. A large subtropical ridge centered over
the southern United States should steer Earl generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the cyclone moving
near the Bay Islands of Honduras in 12-18 hours, near or over
Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in about 24
hours, and over southeastern Mexico and possibly the Bay of
Campeche thereafter. The new forecast track is similar to, but
south of, the previous track based mainly on the initial position,
and it lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.

Earl is expected to remain in a light to moderate vertical wind
shear environment over very warm sea surface temperatures until
landfall. This combination should allow continued strengthening,
and the forecast intensity at landfall has been increased slightly
from the previous advisory based on the SHIPS and LGEM models.
Weakening will occur after landfall as the cyclone passes over
southeastern Mexico. The new forecast track has Earl spending less
time over the Bay of Campeche than the previous track, so the new
intensity forecast shows less re-intensification than the previous
forecast.

A hurricane watch or warning could be required for the Bay Islands
of Honduras later today due to the new forecast track being closer
to the islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 16.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.0N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 18.1N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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08-03-2016, 07:03 AM
Post: #29
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
100 miles north, and this could of been a big storm.
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08-03-2016, 01:02 PM
Post: #30
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
1pm

Quote: SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

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