Post Reply 
HURRICANE EARL
08-01-2016, 07:04 PM (This post was last modified: 08-01-2016 07:19 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #11
RE: Invest 97L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located a
couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Although the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains well organized, surface
observations indicate that the system still appears to lack a
closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm
is likely to form later tonight or Tuesday morning
. An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Tuesday morning
. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will
continue over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over
Jamaica tonight, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight.
Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea
should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For
additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch

[Image: clark6latest.png]

[Image: clarki6latest.png]

[Image: rb0.gif]

[Image: 2016AL97_MPSATWND_201608011800_SWHR.GIF]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 06:45 AM
Post: #12
RE: Invest 97L
Quote: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A vigorous tropical wave passing just south of Jamaica is moving
rapidly westward at about 20 mph toward the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical storm will likely form later today. An
Air Force plane is enroute to investigate the wave and determine if
a closed circulation has formed. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, the wave is already producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and
these conditions along with heavy rains will likely continue over
portions of Jamaica this morning, and will spread over the Cayman
Islands later today. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea,
primarily the north coast of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor products issued by their local
meteorological services for possible watches and warnings. For
additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
8AM

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 09:58 AM
Post: #13
RE: Invest 97L
000
NOUS42 KNHC 011514
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....CARIBBEAN SEA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 02/1130, 1730Z A. 02/2330, 03/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 02/0715Z C. 02/1930Z
D. 16.1N 79.0W D. 16.2N 81.8W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
A. 03/0930Z A. 03/1130, 1730Z
B. NOAA3 0405A B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 03/0600Z C. 03/0800Z
D. 16.4N 83.9W D. 16.6N 84.3W
E. 03/0900Z TO 03/1200Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HOURS AT 0600Z AND 1800Z.
3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 10:08 AM
Post: #14
RE: Tropical Storm Earl
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 10:19 AM
Post: #15
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 10:19 AM (This post was last modified: 08-02-2016 11:01 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #16
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
AL, 05, 2016080212, , BEST, 0, 163N, 788W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 0, 70, 1009, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, TRANSITIONED, alA72016 to al052016,

[Image: plot20160802-0856.gif]

[Image: clarki6latest.png]

[Image: wg8dlm1.GIF]

[Image: 2016214at.jpg]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 15:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 14:42:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°10'N 80°00'W (16.1667N 80.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 234 statute miles (376 km) to the SSE (157°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,472m (4,829ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 53° at 41kts (From the NE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,490m (4,888ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 14:32:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 135° at 23kts (From the SE at 26mph)


[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


000
WTNT25 KNHC 021556
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1600 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.2W AT 02/1600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 11:00 AM (This post was last modified: 08-02-2016 11:01 AM by Nolaken.)
Post: #17
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
000
WTNT35 KNHC 021557
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
Guatemala border.

The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm
Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT45 KNHC 021557
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed
circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this
basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated. This
is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season.

The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this
morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection
is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not
well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of
the global models show that the upper-level environment should
become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for
some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula.

Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within
very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern
United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone
on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the
next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move
over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone
should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering
currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance
agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows
the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1600Z 16.3N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 11:51 AM (This post was last modified: 08-02-2016 11:52 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #18
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:41Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 16:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°13'N 80°20'W (16.2167N 80.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 223 statute miles (359 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,458m (4,783ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the ESE (102°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 180° at 32kts (From the S at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the ESE (102°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (41°) from the flight level center at 16:08:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 275° at 6kts (From the W at 7mph)
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 01:07 PM
Post: #19
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
000
WTNT35 KNHC 021757
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO, SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO,
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF EARL WILL BE MOVING
VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE EARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE TONIGHT, MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS, AND WILL REACH MEXICO AND BELIZE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN
IN MEXICO AND BELIZE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL: EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL OVER JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE, HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO, WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 16 INCHES IN MEXICO AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-02-2016, 03:26 PM
Post: #20
RE: TROPICAL STORM EARL
Look at this Miss Piggy has come out to play with all her new tech gear:

Plane LocationTime of last reported ob:20:05Z on Aug. 2, 2016Direction of Travel:Toward the SE (137°)Location:163 statute miles (262 km) to the SSW (200°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.


Raw Recon Data( * ) Denotes suspect dataTime:20:04:00ZCoordinates:20.267N 84.617WAcft. Static Air Press:463.7 mbAcft. Geopotential Hgt:6,505 m (21,342 ft)D-value:380 mFlt. Lvl. Wind (30s):From 62° at 7 kts (From the ENE at 8.1 mph)Air Temp:-8.6°C (16.5°F)Dew Pt:-14.9°C (5.2°F)Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:8 kts (9.2 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:17 kts (19.6 mph)SFMR Rain Rate:0 mm/hr

Trained Weather Spotter
CoCoRaHS Volunteer
https://www.instagram.com/bostickjm
https://twitter.com/BostickJM
http://www.livechasers.com/JonathanBostick
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)