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96L
07-27-2016, 12:03 PM (This post was last modified: 07-27-2016 03:08 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #1
96L
Seems unlikely to develop but....

AL, 96, 2016072712, , BEST, 0, 99N, 153W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, SPAWNINVEST, al712016 to al962016,

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this disturbance during the next several
days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart

JM posted this but withdrew it before I could read the whole blog entry - this header is still posted - changing his mind?

Quote: First African Tropical Wave of the Year to Achieve 'Invest' Designation: 96L
By: Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2016

One of the strongest tropical waves of the 2016 African monsoon season moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days as it tracks westwards at 15 - 20 mph into the middle Atlantic. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 96L on Wednesday morning--the first "Invest" of the year for an African tropical wave, and something we'll see a lot more of as once the Atlantic hurricane season hi...

[Image: 2016AL96_MIIWVRGB_201607271014.jpg]



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Stewart
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07-27-2016, 03:08 PM
Post: #2
RE: 96L
[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]
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07-27-2016, 05:10 PM (This post was last modified: 07-27-2016 05:15 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #3
RE: 96L
[Image: MAnG9K9Uc0aEJhBPYYU8GBcdivqNUx.png]

JM finally reposted his blog entry for today

Quote: First African Tropical Wave of the Year to Get Designated an 'Invest': 96L


By: Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2016



[/url] [url=undefined] [/url] [url=undefined]
One of the strongest tropical waves of the 2016 African monsoon season moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days as it tracks westwards at 15 - 20 mph into the middle Atlantic. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 96L on Wednesday morning--the first "Invest" of the year for an African tropical wave, and something we'll see a lot more of as once the Atlantic hurricane season hits high gear during the mid-August through late September peak of the season. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed 96L had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which were poorly organized and had no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear was moderate, near 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28°C (82°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average.

[Image: jul27-modis.jpg]
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L taken on Wednesday afternoon, July 27, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 96L
Steering currents favor a westerly motion for 96L, with the system slowing down in forward speed late this week and reaching a point near 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa, on Monday. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted modestly favorable conditions for development through Friday, with wind shear in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and warm SSTs near 28°C. However, on Saturday and Sunday, 96L will encounter cooler waters, with temperatures a marginal 26°C. The SHIPS model also predicts that wind shear over the weekend will rise to the high range, above 20 knots, and the atmosphere will get very dry, due to an intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer (check out ion_old=&dtg_old=&prod_old=&model_old=fp&tau_old=&&loop=1" target="_blank">this animation of the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) These unfavorable conditions would stymie any development of 96L, but forecasts of dry air and wind shear this far into the future are unreliable.

The Wednesday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported some limited development of 96L, but stopped short of predicting it would become a tropical depression. The 00Z Wednesday run of the GFS ensemble forecast, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had about 40% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form this weekend or early next week midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions, and none had it becoming a hurricane. Less than 10% of the 50 members of the 00Z Wednesday European ensemble model forecasts showed a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic over the next ten days. In their 2 pm EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. Though the long-range uncertainty on what 96L might do is high, one reasonable scenario is for the system to steadily grow in organization the next few days, come close to or achieve tropical depression status by Saturday, then get ripped apart by wind shear and dry air well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week. Should 96L overachieve, the next name on the Atlantic list of named storms is Earl.

[Image: peakofseason.jpg]
Figure 2. Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is typically low through the end of July, but climbs steeply once we reach the third week of August.
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07-27-2016, 09:36 PM
Post: #4
RE: 96L
Any models runs for it yet ?

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07-27-2016, 09:42 PM
Post: #5
RE: 96L
[Image: 96L_zpskcd1edje.png]

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07-28-2016, 12:06 AM (This post was last modified: 07-28-2016 12:29 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #6
RE: 96L
(07-27-2016 09:36 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Any models runs for it yet ?
I've tried to run several without much success....but I've read elsewhere that, especially the GFS, is showing it dissipating before or by the time it reaches the Antilles....not sure why I can't see it on the runs - sheer incompetence is my guess....

Really? Hmmm...

[Image: 2ntjnsm.png]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Some development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
However, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development early next week
when the system is over
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Pasch
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07-28-2016, 11:00 AM
Post: #7
RE: 96L
CMC develops it as well as a Caribbean/GOM storm. Actually holds the GOM together better.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...=Animation
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07-28-2016, 01:34 PM (This post was last modified: 07-28-2016 01:37 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #8
RE: 96L
JM

Quote: 96L Off the Coast of Africa Growing More Organized


By:Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 28, 2016



[/url] [url=undefined] [/url] [url=undefined]
A strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning has become more organized over the far eastern Atlantic, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days as it tracks west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph into the middle Atlantic. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 96L on Wednesday morning--the first "Invest" of the year for an African tropical wave. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed 96L had a compact area of heavy thunderstorms, and this activity had acquired a modest degree of organization. Some spin was evident in the cloud pattern, and low-level spiral banding features had begun to appear. Wind shear was a light 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28°C (82°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that the eastern tropical Atlantic was quite moist, with the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) several hundred miles north of 96L. These conditions are favorable for development of a tropical depression.

[Image: sal-jul28.jpg]
Figure 1. Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT (12 UTC) Thursday, July 28, 2016, showed that the dry air and dust of the SAL lay a few hundred miles to the north of 96L. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Forecast for 96L
Steering currents favor a west to west-northwesterly motion at 10 - 20 mph for 96L over the next five days, and the storm should reach a point near 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa, on Sunday. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted modestly favorable conditions for development through Saturday morning, with wind shear in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and warm SSTs near 27.5 - 28°C (81 - 82°F.) However, on Saturday and Sunday, 96L will encounter cooler waters, with temperatures a marginal 26.5 - 27°C (80 - 81°F). The SHIPS model also predicts that wind shear over the weekend will become moderate to high, 15 - 25 knots, and the atmosphere will get very dry, due to an intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer (check out the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) These unfavorable conditions would stymie any development of 96L.

The Thursday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported some limited development of 96L, but stopped short of predicting it would become a tropical depression. The 00Z Thursday run of the GFS ensemble forecast, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had more than 50% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form this weekend or early next week in the eastern Atlantic. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions, and none had it becoming a hurricane. Between 10 - 20% of the 50 members of the 00Z Thursday European ensemble model forecasts showed 96L becoming a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. Though the long-range uncertainty on what 96L might do is high, one reasonable scenario is for the system to steadily grow in organization the next few days, come close to or achieve tropical depression status by Saturday, then get ripped up by wind shear and dry air well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week. Should 96L become a tropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic list is Earl.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing an
area of showers and thunderstorms about 350 miles south-southeast of
Cabo Verde. Some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for development early next week when the
system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Stewart
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07-28-2016, 04:24 PM
Post: #9
RE: 96L
Here are my latest model runs


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07-28-2016, 06:21 PM
Post: #10
RE: 96L
(07-28-2016 04:24 PM)Alabamaboy Wrote:  Here are my latest model runs
Guess that it's something to watch but zzzzzzzzzz

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