Post Reply 
HURRICANE JOAQUIN
09-28-2015, 08:05 AM (This post was last modified: 09-30-2015 07:12 AM by Alex.)
Post: #1
HURRICANE JOAQUIN
[Image: 085237W5_NL_sm.gif]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-29-2015, 02:55 AM (This post was last modified: 09-29-2015 02:55 AM by Smitter.)
Post: #2
TD#11
Is going to get updated to Joaquin

Looking mighty impressive
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-29-2015, 03:17 PM
Post: #3
RE: TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
There's also a possibility it gets absorbed by a trough too.

[Image: al112015.png]

AARoads
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-29-2015, 06:13 PM
Post: #4
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
I cannot believe how quiet it is here!
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-29-2015, 06:52 PM
Post: #5
RE: TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
Now forecast to be a 90 MPH hurricane. This morning it was only forecast for 65 MPH.

Quote: 000
WTNT41 KNHC 292052
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized during
the day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northern
edge of the main area of deep convection. Animation of cirrus
motions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little more
prominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this is
consistent with decreasing northerly shear. Flight-level,
dropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened and
the intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt. With a more favorable
upper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the official
forecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories.
Joaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, with
additional intensification likely thereafter. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output.

Fixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion and
the initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt. Joaquin is currently
south of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. The
ECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone
to be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamical
models. Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the
west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available
guidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significant
divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office
models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United
States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system
well offshore. The official forecast lies between these
possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble solution.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

AARoads
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-29-2015, 11:15 PM (This post was last modified: 09-30-2015 02:09 AM by Alex.)
Post: #6
RE: TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
Now forecast for high end Cat 2? Joaquin is blowing up faster than they anticipated!

Quote:000
WTNT41 KNHC 300254
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become better
organized this evening. The low-level center is located within the
northwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow has
continued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggests
that the shear continues to decrease. The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on the
Dvorak scale. Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and
the continued increase in organization this evening, the initial
wind speed has been raised to 60 kt. Joaquin is forecast to be over
warm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind pattern
during the next day or so. These conditions favor intensification
and the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within
the next 12 hours. The upper-level winds are shown by the global
models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an
upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional
strengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bit
higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN
intensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,
and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next
few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.

Joaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt. This general
motion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while the
cyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. During
this time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Central Bahamas. After 48 hours, a deepening mid-
to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States is
expected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed. There remains large spread in the
guidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastward
motion toward Bermuda. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantly
westward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along the
western edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has been
shifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-model
consensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Central Bahamas. Additional watches or warnings may be required
early Wednesday.

At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential
impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering
currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent
manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are
possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,
Joaquin will have on the United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

AARoads
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-30-2015, 04:00 AM
Post: #7
RE: TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
5AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

The coldest convective cloud tops are located to the east of the
estimated center position, but there have been hints of an eye in
infrared imagery overnight. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on its way to
investigate Joaquin this morning. Conditions are expected to be
conducive for intensification during the next few days, with Joaquin
moving over very warm waters with shear steadily decreasing. The
hurricane intensity guidance and the latest runs of the GFS, UKMET,
and ECMWF all show Joaquin intensifying, and in fact, the global
models show the central pressure in the 950s or lower. The NHC
forecast is near the latest intensity model consensus, and has
Joaquin peaking in 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be
moving into a higher shear environment and over cooler waters, which
should result in slow weakening.

Joaquin continues to move west-southwestward under the influence of
a short-wave ridge to its north, and the initial motion estimate is
245/05. This motion should continue for the next 24 hours, and
Joaquin is expected to then turn slowly westward as the ridge
weakens on Thursday. The UKMET and ECMWF continue to show Joaquin
moving farther southwestward into the central Bahamas than the rest
of the guidance. The new NHC track in the short range is a little
south of the previous one, but north of the UKMET/ECMWF solution.
Given this new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas and a Hurricane Watch for
part of the northwestern Bahamas.

After 36 hours, Joaquin is forecast to turn northwestward and then
northward as it interacts with a deep-layer trough that cuts off
over the southeastern United States in about 3 days. Much of the
deterministic guidance shows Joaquin turning northwestward
toward the mid-Atlantic coast by days 4 and 5. However, the ECMWF
continues to show an offshore solution with a track west of Bermuda,
but has shifted to the left this cycle by about 150 miles at day 5.
While the overall synoptic pattern is similar between the models,
the eventual track of Joaquin appears sensitive to just how far
southwest it moves in the first 36 to 48 hours and how this affect
the eventual interaction with the upper-level low. The GFS, HWRF,
and GFDL show a sharp turn back to toward the coast in 4 days, while
the ECMWF is slower to bring Joaquin northward and ejects the
cyclone toward the northeast. The UKMET is between those two
scenarios with a broader turn back toward the coast by day 5. There
is still ensemble support for a wide range of solutions, so
confidence in any deterministic model solution remains quite low.
The NHC track has been nudged a little to the left this cycle to
reflect the westward shift in the guidance, but lies on the eastern
side of the guidance envelope given the ECMWF solution.

Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period
remains very low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and not being handled in a consistent manner by the models.
Given that a wide range of outcomes is possible, it is too soon to
say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 25.4N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 25.1N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 24.7N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 25.2N 74.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 28.3N 73.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 33.0N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-30-2015, 04:44 AM
Post: #8
RE: TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
Possible cane chase in my future ? I see lots of hype and drama being posted by other chasers

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-30-2015, 05:38 AM
Post: #9
RE: TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
Drama and hype are to be expected given that potential US landfall threats seem to never happen anymore.

AARoads
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-30-2015, 06:08 AM
Post: #10
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
968 Pressure WOW! What a drop in the last few hours. Roll tide you may be chasing the 1000 year storm. No hype either. Warmest waters in history recorded and shear dropping to next to nothing. Gfs now calling a 939 storm
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)