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HURRICANE JOAQUIN
10-01-2015, 10:01 AM
Post: #31
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
and the move to the right continues

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10-01-2015, 10:08 AM
Post: #32
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
11AM
Quote: HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb
flight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a
117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave
Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall. The latest central
pressure was 942 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity
is increased to 110 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is
trying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus
outflow is good in all directions.

Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24
hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of
decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There
is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour
period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken
due to increasing shear. However, several of the global models
forecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level
divergence and show a falling central pressure. The new forecast
will continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not
be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast.

The initial motion is 220/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to
upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing
deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States.
The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as
it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern
evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or
so and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains
very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models
forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the
Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast
a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to
sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a
generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility
that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the
forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at
this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models,
but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus
models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today
depending on how the models do (or do not) change.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas
should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin over the next day or
so will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, storm
surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands.

2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours is
still low, since there have been some large changes in the model
guidance overnight and a large spread in the model solutions
remains, with potential impacts from the Carolinas through New
England. It is also possible that Joaquin will remain far from the
U.S. east coast. A hurricane watch for the U.S. coast would likely
not occur until at least Friday morning.

3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as
possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the
storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.

4. It's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's
track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal
flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern
states through the weekend.

5. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing
heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These
heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if
the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood
potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is
possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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10-01-2015, 10:54 AM
Post: #33
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
Who else is ready to jump off the hype train ?

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10-01-2015, 11:27 AM
Post: #34
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
(10-01-2015 10:54 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Who else is ready to jump off the hype train ?

Never was on it Sleepy Feel bad for the Bahamas but the models looking great for the US.
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10-01-2015, 11:40 AM
Post: #35
HURRICANE JOAQUIN
Roll what happened to everyone. Hardcore use to be crazy!
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10-01-2015, 11:44 AM
Post: #36
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
Jim Cantore
‏@JimCantore



20m20 minutes ago








The southern Appalachians to the coast seem to be at the apex of this event. Expect to adjust weekend plans/events.














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10-01-2015, 11:45 AM
Post: #37
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
(10-01-2015 11:40 AM)Smitter Wrote:  Roll what happened to everyone. Hardcore use to be crazy!

Who knows if people don't start posting soon I will post naked pics of myself then pull the plug on the site Tongue

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10-01-2015, 11:47 AM
Post: #38
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
Jeff Masters

Quote: oaquin Hammers Bahamas; Future Track Still Uncertain






By:
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

, 4:06 PM GMT on October 01, 2015












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Category 3 Hurricane Joaquin
is giving the Central Bahama Islands a ferocious pounding as the storm
moves very slowly over the islands. An Air Force hurricane hunter
aircraft made three penetrations of Joaquin's center on Thursday
morning, and found top surface winds of 125 mph. The central pressure
held steady at 942 mb between the first two passes at 7:47 and 9:23 am
EDT, but dropped to 939 mb at 11:20 am, so Joaquin is still
intensifying. The hurricane had a large 36-mile diameter eye that was
fully closed in their second pass through. Joaquin took advantage of wind shear that had fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Thursday morning. Visible and infrared satellite loops
show that Joaquin is a moderate-sized hurricane with impressive
organization, with a solid core of intense eyewall thunderstorms
surrounding a clear eye. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin
show that the hurricane has maintained an impressive upper-level
outflow channel to the southeast, which allowed the hurricane's rapid
intensification over the past 24 hours. Ocean temperatures in the region
remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F), but may start to cool due to Joaquin's slow motion.

[Image: oct1-sat-gsfc.jpg]
Figure 1.
GOES-13 image of Hurricane Joaquin over the Bahamas as seen on
Thursday, October 1, 2015, at 10:30 am EDT. At the time, Joaquin had top
winds of 125 mph. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

[Image: exuma-webcam.jpg]
Figure 2.
Winds were rising across the Central Bahamas on Thursday morning, and
were a brisk 39 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 3:13 am EDT at a personal weather stationon Exuma Island. Shewp's Webcam
from Exuma Island on Thursday morning showed a darkening sky with heavy
whitecapping of the waters, as Joaquin approached, but the webcam and
weather station stopped reporting at 8:52 am.

Impact of Joaquin on the Bahamas
Joaquin's main threat to the Bahamas is likely to be wind damage. The 11 am Thursday Wind Probability Forecast
from NHC gave the highest chances of hurricane-force winds of 69% to
San Salvador Island (population 930). Hurricane-force winds are slightly
less likely on Cat Island (population 1,500), to the northwest of San
Salvador Island. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches in the Central Bahamas
may also cause considerable flooding damage, as well as the large waves
of the storm riding up on top of the expected 5 - 10' storm surge.
Thursday morning satellite imagery showed that Joaquin had stalled out
over the Central Bahamas; with only a slow motion expected for the next
day, the islands will receive and extended pounding, increasing the odds
of significant wind damage.

[Image: bahamas_mom3h.png]
Figure 3.
This Maximum Water Depth storm surge image for the Bahamas shows the
worst-case inundation scenarios for a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph
winds, as predicted using dozens of runs of NOAA's SLOSH model. For
example, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea
level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is
fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet
of inundation. No single storm will be able to cause the level of
flooding depicted in this image. The regions of the Bahamas most
vulnerable to storm surge tend to lie on the southwest sides of the
islands. Since Joaquin is approaching from the northeast, the storm's
peak on-shore winds will be affecting the northeast sides of the
islands, where deeper offshore waters tend not to allow larger storm
surges to build. NHC is forecasting peak water levels (the depth of
water above the high tide mark) of 5 - 10 feet from Joaquin in the
Bahamas. See wunderground's storm surge pages for more storm surge info.

Outlook for Joaquin: Out to sea?
With
favorable conditions for at least the next day (low wind shear and very
warm sea-surface temperatures), Joaquin may yet intensify further. The 11 am EDT Thursday advisory from NHC pegs Joaquin’s top sustained winds at 125 mph, and the NHC outlook brings Joaquin to Category 4 status,
with top sustained winds of 140 mph projected by Friday. Joaquin is
located close to the region where Hurricane Andrew grew from Category 1
to Category 5 status during a year with very suppressed hurricane
activity, 1992 (featuring an El Niño event during the first half of the
year.) This serves as a reminder that the subtropics can be a worrisome
breeding ground for strong hurricanes even during an El Niño year, when
activity in the deep tropics tends to be suppressed. We can expect some
fluctuation in strength if an eyewall replacement cycle takes hold over
the next day or two, as is common after hurricanes go through a rapid
intensification phase. Once Joaquin begins moving northward under the
influence of stronger upper-level flow, we can expect its top sustained
winds to eventually decrease while the size of its wind field increases.
The waters are unusually warm across much of the Northwest Atlantic,
which may help Joaquin sustain its strength longer than one would
otherwise expect.

The track forecast for Joaquin remains
low-confidence, although there was an important shift in the 00Z and 06Z
Thursday computer-model guidance in favor of keeping Joaquin away from
the U.S. East Coast. The global-scale GFS model, which had been
predicting a North Carolina landfall for more than a day, shifted in its
00Z Thursday run to a track toward Long Island. The 06Z Thursday run of
the GFS showed an even more dramatic shift eastward, with Joaquin
hugging the Nova Scotia coastline. Members of the GFS ensemble also
reflected this shift, with most but not all of the 06Z GEFS members
showing an offshore track. (Ensembles are produced by running a model
many times, each with slightly different initial conditions to represent
uncertainty in the atmosphere’s starting point.) The UKMET also shifted
significantly eastward, moving from a North Carolina landfall in its
12Z Wednesday run to a Cape Cod brushing in its 00Z Thursday run. The
high-resolution HWRF and GFDL models stuck to their guns, with their 06Z
Thursday runs continuing to depict landfall in North Carolina or
Virginia.

If the trend toward an offshore track holds up in
Thursday’s model guidance, kudos must go to the ECMWF model. Its
operational run has consistently called for a track well away from the
U.S. East Coast, as was the case at 00Z Thursday. Just as significant,
most of the ECMWF ensemble members (about 40 out of 50) showed an
offshore track in the 00Z Thursday runs, whereas a large part of the
ensemble had previously shown of a U.S. landfall. Analyses of the ECMWF
ensemble for 12Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday indicate that the ensemble
members who did the best in the first few hours of the forecast were
consistently taking Joaquin offshore (see Figure 6).

[Image: oct1-gfs-euro.png]
Figure 4.
The latest runs from our two top models for forecasting hurricane
tracks: the 8 pm EDT Wednesday September 30, 2015 (00Z Thursday) run of
the European model (left), and the 2 am EDT October 1 (06Z) run of the
GFS model (right) both took Joaquin on a path out to sea that misses the
U.S. coast, but were still very far apart. Image credit: wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.



[Image: euro-ens-oct1.png]
[Image: gfs-ens-oct1.png]
Figure 5.
The ensemble runs of our two top models for forecasting hurricane
tracks, both run at 8 pm EDT Wednesday September 30, 2015 (00Z
Thursday). The 50 members of the European model ensemble (top) had only
about 10 of its 50 members that showed a U.S. landfall, while about 10
of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble (bottom) did so. Compared to
the runs done 24 hours previous, the European ensembles had shifted
considerably to the east, away from the U.S., with the GFS ensemble
members less so. Ensemble runs take the operational version of the model
and run it at lower resolution with slightly different initial
conditions, to generate an "ensemble" of possible forecasts. 



[Image: high-prob-oct1.png]
Figure 6.
The European model ensemble run at 8 pm EDT Wednesday September 30,
2015 (00Z Thursday, October 1) had four of its 50 members (grey lines)
that tracked the movement of Joaquin exceptionally well during the
period 00Z - 12Z October 1. All of these four members had tracks for
Joaquin that missed the U.S., with two of them hitting Canada. The
operational (high-resolution) version of the European model is shown in
red. Image taken from a custom software package used by TWC.

The
ECMWF model is known for its high-quality representation of atmospheric
physics and its ability to smoothly incorporate data from a variety of
sources. The model is not infallible; back in January, it famously and
erroneously predicted that Manhattan would get walloped by several feet
of snow. However, in cases of model disagreement, the ECMWF is often the
first to pick up on subtle large-scale features that turn out to be
crucial in steering a hurricane. This was the case during 2012’s
Hurricane Sandy, when the ECWMF was ahead of all models in depicting the
rare leftward hook into New Jersey that Sandy ended up taking. Two key
factors at play with Joaquin are the upper-level low cutting off over
the Southeast U.S. and another upper low taking shape well northeast of
Joaquin. Most models had projected that the Southeast low would pull
Joaquin into its northeast side, a la Sandy, whereas the ECMWF and other
models now appear to be reckoning that the upper low in the Atlantic
will play a larger role in steering Joaquin.


[Image: gfs-00hr-6Z_10.1.15.jpg]
Figure 7.
This WunderMap image shows the GFS-analyzed steering flow at 200 mb
(about 40,000 feet) at 06Z (2:00 am EDT) Thursday, October 1, 2015.
Joaquin's future track is being shaped by an upper-level low that will
cut off from a sharp trough now in the eastern United States (A) and by
another upper low developing at the base of another sharp trough in the
north central Atlantic (B).


Given the interplay between these
two features, it is still too soon to confidently project that Joaquin
will remain offshore, but it is fair to say that the ominous HWRF and
GFDL tracks are now lower-probability, high-impact possibilities. The
strength of Joaquin and the residual disagreement among models calls for
continued keen vigilance and careful analysis. Another caveat is that
the onshore and offshore forecast tracks do not diverge a great deal
until after Friday, so quick action would be needed if the
lower-probability onshore solution turned out to be correct.

A key experimental tool for better forecasts missing for Joaquin
One
potential aid to making better hurricane track and intensity forecasts
is the use of real-time radar data from NOAA's two P-3 hurricane
research aircraft. Over the past two years, these aircraft have flown
numerous missions into Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms, sending
back real-time radar data that was ingested into the HWRF model, one of
our top models for predicting both hurricane tracks and intensities.
This real-time data was shown to measurably improve the forecasts from
this model. Unfortunately, both NOAA P-3 aircraft are grounded this week
for maintenance issues. One aircraft has been undergoing a months-long
process to have new wings put on, leaving just one P-3 for this year's
hurricane season. Unfortunately, last Friday, de-lamination of that
plane's lower fuselage radome, which was deep and too broad to fix at
the Aircraft Operation Center's base in Tampa, was discovered. The shell
has been trucked to Jacksonville for repair, and the repair will not be
done until Friday at the earliest. However, NOAA's jet has been flying
upper-level dropsonde missions around the clock, and data from these
missions has been getting fed into the models for Joaquin.

Regardless of Joaquin's path, a potentially devastating rain/flood/surge event
Even
if Joaquin does stay offshore, a very large pressure gradient between
it and a surface high far to the north will keep a broad easterly fetch
of wind heading into the U.S. East Coast, leading to a prolonged bout of
coastal flooding and erosion over the next several days. Storm-surge
expert Hal Needham emphasized the rarity of the situation in a blog post on Thursday morning.
“The duration of this wind event is absolutely mind-boggling,” says
Needham. Strong, sustained onshore winds (more than 20 mph) could be
affecting the mid-Atlantic coast for more than 96 solid hours,
regardless of Joaquin’s track. High water will be present for as many as
10 high tides over several days, increasing the risk of erosion and
flooding along the coast as well as up to a few miles inland. “This
developing situation is truly historic and has not been observed in the
modern history of the Mid-Atlantic Coast,” says Needham.

Complicating
matters even further, a potentially destructive multi-day bout of heavy
rain and inland flooding is on tap, focused on the southern
Appalachians and nearby coastal plains, as the cutoff Southeast low
continues to pump rich tropical moisture (with at least some
contribution from Joaquin’s circulation) over a preexisting frontal
zone. Both the ECMWF and GFS model solutions lead to moisture inflow at
the 850 mb level (about a mile above sea level) that is close to
unprecedented amounts—“off the charts,” as NOAA’s Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) put it in a Thursday morning discussion.

[Image: 3day-wpc-12Z-10.1.15.jpg]
Figure 8. 5-day predicted rainfall amounts from 12Z (8 am EDT) Thursday, October 1, to Tuesday, October 6. Image credit: NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Widespread
rainfall in recent days (2” – 4” in many areas) has saturated the
ground in many areas, which will add to the flood risk. The focus of the
heaviest rain may shift from western GA/SC/NC/VA toward the
mid-Atlantic toward Sunday and Monday, depending in large part on
interactions between the Southeastern upper low and Joaquin. The 5-day
rainfall amounts predicted by WPC are astounding: most of the region
from northeast Georgia to New Jersey is projected to receive at least
5”, with 15-20” predicted across the bulk of South Carolina. Local
amounts are often substantially greater than these large-scale
predictions.

The bottom line: regardless of Joaquin’s track, a
large and populous part of the United States is in for what could be
historic rainfall and a very serious flooding risk.

We’ll have another update later today.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


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10-01-2015, 11:55 AM (This post was last modified: 10-01-2015 02:06 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #39
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
[Image: storm_11]

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10-01-2015, 12:27 PM (This post was last modified: 10-01-2015 12:28 PM by Squirrelmonkey.)
Post: #40
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
(10-01-2015 11:40 AM)Smitter Wrote:  Roll what happened to everyone. Hardcore use to be crazy!
I spent so much time on here that I received a promotion........now I don't have time to play anymore

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