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HURRICANE JOAQUIN
09-30-2015, 03:26 PM (This post was last modified: 09-30-2015 03:26 PM by seamule.)
Post: #21
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
an old Chinese proverb said... "Sum Ting Wong!"

Joaquin going SW now. They don't stop and make a 90 degree turn that easily. An object in motion stays in motion until external influences change it. PLUS one has to calculate the strength of the hurricane. Any changes in that disrupts the models and guidance. If Joaquin strengthens to a nice cat 4, and don't kid yourself, those waters are bath-tub like....then we might really have a gamer on our hand. It may slip too far south to be caught up by the trough. the trough could be weakening.

Andrew? Katrina? Joaquin!
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09-30-2015, 04:12 PM
Post: #22
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
5PM

Quote: HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

There has been little change in the organization of Joaquin during
the past several hours. While the hurricane continues to produce
cloud tops colder than -80C in the eyewall, the eye has not become
better defined since the last advisory. Satellite intensity
estimates are 77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the advisory
intensity is now 75 kt.

The initial motion is 225/7. The shortwave ridge causing this
motion is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong
deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States.
Thus, a generally southwestward motion is expected for the next 36
hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north as the trough
becomes the dominant steering mechanism. There is an increased
disagreement between the GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and NAVGEM models
versus the ECMWF since the last advisory. The ECMWF has continued
its forecast of showing a northeastward motion after 72 hours,
taking Joaquin just west of Bermuda and out to sea. The other
models have all shifted their forecasts to the left and now
call for landfall in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states,
followed by merger with the baroclinic trough. Given the shift in
the non-ECMWF models, a major westward adjustment has been made to
the forecast track at 96 and 120 hours, bringing the center of
Joaquin near or over portions of the mid-Atlantic states. Due to
the use of the ECMWF in the consensus models, the new track lies
near the various consensus models. However, it lies well to the
east of the GFS and the other similar models. The NOAA G-IV jet is
currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission, which, along with
special rawinsonde launches, hopefully will reduce the spread of the
guidance.

There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since
the last advisory. Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment
of moderate northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours,
possibly including strong winds seen at 400 mb in recent dropsondes
from the G-IV aircraft. However, since it has been steadily
strengthening in such an environment, there is no obvious reason to
think it will stop doing so. After 36 hours, the hurricane is
likely to move into an area of divergent southerly upper-level winds
associated with the eastern U. S. trough. While there is
uncertainty as to how much shear should occur, it is expected that
additional intensification could occur through at least 48 hours.
Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to peak as a
major hurricane in 48-72 hours, and it is possible it could be
stronger than currently forecast. After 72 hours, increasing shear,
cold air intrusion, and land interaction should cause weakening and
the start of extratropical transition.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning
areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.

2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this
afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic
states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the
forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally
excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States
east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and
includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the
Carolinas.

3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with
as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of
missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service
is launching extra balloon soundings.

4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays
well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate
coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states through the weekend.

5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as Thursday evening.

6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the
hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas
even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 24.3N 73.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 24.0N 73.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 23.9N 74.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 25.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 30.5N 74.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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09-30-2015, 04:14 PM
Post: #23
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
[Image: 205433W5_NL_sm.gif]

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09-30-2015, 04:25 PM (This post was last modified: 09-30-2015 04:26 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #24
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
EYES ON JOAQUIN: Hurricane Joaquin is packing sustained winds of 85
mph, and is drifting southwest, just east of the Bahamas. It is expected
to take a hard turn to the right during the next 48 hours, possibly
approaching the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. this weekend. The GFS
(the U.S. global model), and most high resolution tropical models move
Joaquin into the coast of North Carolina, while curiously the ECMWF
(European model) takes the system out to sea with no landfall. Thus,
forecast confidence remains rather low at this point, but certainly
those that live along the coast of the Carolinas, and points north, need
to make preparations for this hurricane now in the event it does take a
track toward a weekend landfall.

One way or another, very heavy rain is likely for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas north.

[Image: p120i1-600x450.gif]

[Image: 174913W5_NL_sm-600x480.gif]

Again, see the afternoon Weather Xtreme video for more maps, graphics, and details.




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09-30-2015, 07:42 PM
Post: #25
HURRICANE JOAQUIN
Strong Cat 2 reports already it's a cat 3
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09-30-2015, 10:06 PM
Post: #26
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
..
Quote: HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

Joaquin has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours with the
satellite presentation continuing to improve this evening. The eye
has recently become apparent near the center of the very symmetric
central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that has been investigating the hurricane this evening has
measured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt and 102 kt surface
winds from the SFMR. These data support an initial intensity of
100 kt, making Joaquin the second major hurricane of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season. NOTE: Communications problems have
delayed the public release of the Air Force reconnaissance data.

Joaquin continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial
motion estimate of 220/5 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move
slowly southwestward or west-southwestward for another 24 hours or
so while it remains to the south of a narrow northeast to southwest
oriented ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken by Friday as a
trough deepens and cuts off over the southeastern United States.
This should cause Joaquin to turn northward within 48 hours. The 18Z
runs of the GFS and HWRF remain in general agreement with the 12Z
UKMET and Canadian models moving Joaquin around the northeastern
portion of the cut-off low and bring the hurricane inland over the
Carolinas or mid-Atlantic states. The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier
by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea. The NHC
forecast continues to follow the trend of the bulk of the guidance
and takes Joaquin toward the U.S east coast. The NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory and is once again east of the
multi-model consensus. The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently
completed its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected
during this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models,
hopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance.

The upper-level wind pattern over the hurricane is forecast by the
global models to become even more conducive during the next couple
of days. This favors additional intensification, with the only
possible limiting factors being upwelling of cool SSTs beneath the
slow-moving hurricane and eyewall cycles which could cause some
fluctuations in intensity. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly
shear, dry air intrusion, and lower SSTs are expected to cause
gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been
significantly increased from the previous advisory primarily due to
the higher initial intensity. The official forecast is between the
lower statistical guidance and the higher HWRF during the first
36-48 hours, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM guidance after that time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning
areas in the Central Bahamas should be completed now.

2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains
low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin
far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible
outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major
hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.

3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with
as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of
missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service
has begun launching extra balloon soundings.

4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's
track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal
flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern
states through the weekend.

5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as Thursday evening.

6. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing
heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These
heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if
the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood
potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is
possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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09-30-2015, 11:20 PM (This post was last modified: 09-30-2015 11:20 PM by hurricaneguy.)
Post: #27
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
GFS significantly further East. Trending toward the Euro.

GFS significantly further East. Trending toward the Euro.
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10-01-2015, 02:53 AM
Post: #28
HURRICANE JOAQUIN
Euro input has the storm with a 970 pressure. It's 948 maybe less now. Very interesting Also they have it stalling.
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10-01-2015, 06:32 AM
Post: #29
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
5AM

Quote: HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

Data from the last aircraft mission indicated the Joaquin had
strengthened a little more, and the intensity of 105 kt is supported
by flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the plane. The
central pressure of 948 mb is based on a dropsonde that measured 950
mb with 20 kt of wind. The satellite presentation of the hurricane
continues to gradually improve, with cold tops expanding near and
west of the center, although the eye is not yet apparent in infrared
imagery. Another hurricane hunter aircraft will be investigating
Joaquin later this morning.

Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24
hours while over very warm waters and with decreasing vertical
shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in
intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles and perhaps some
upwelling of cold waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane.
After 48 hours, cooler SSTs and increasing shear should result in
gradual weakening as Joaquin moves northward. The new NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HWRF
through 24 hours. After that time, the NHC prediction is above the
intensity consensus since the official forecast keeps the cyclone
offshore, while the remainder of the intensity guidance shows
weakening due to decay over land.

The initial motion of the hurricane is still toward the southwest
or 230/04 under the influence of a narrow ridge to the north. A
slow motion with a bending of the track toward the west and then
the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours as the
ridge weakens. During this time the NHC track has been adjusted
southward following the latest trend in the guidance. The slow
motion of Joaquin will mean a prolonged period of hurricane
conditions in portions of the central Bahamas, along with very heavy
rain and storm surge.

By 36 hours, Joaquin should begin to move faster toward the north as
it comes under the influence of a deep-layer trough that cuts off
over the southeastern United States. There have been big changes in
some of the track guidance overnight, perhaps due to data from the
synoptic surveillance mission flown by the NOAA G-IV jet for the 00Z
model cycle. In particular, the GFS and UKMET have shifted eastward
by several hundred miles in 3 to 4 days relative to their previous
solutions. Overall for this cycle there has been a spreading out of
the guidance envelope beyond 2 days, with a wide range of solutions
shown. The HWRF and GFDL are the fastest to bring Joaquin north out
of the Bahamas and still show a sharp westward turn taking the
cyclone inland over the Carolinas in 3 to 4 days. The GFS has
trended slower coming out of the Bahamas and now shows a track
toward Long Island and southern New England in 5 days, with the
UKMET farther offshore. The latest ECMWF is still the slowest and
farthest east with a track just west of Bermuda in 4 to 5 days.
Given the large shift in some of the guidance, the NHC track has
been adjusted just a little to the east and slower at days 3 through
5, and now lies on the left side of the multi-model consensus and
left of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF solutions. Confidence remains very
low in the eventual track of Joaquin and any potential impacts for
the United States, and further adjustments to the NHC track may be
needed later today.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas
should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin during the next 24
to 36 hours will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds,
storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands.

2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains
low, as there have been some large changes in the model guidance
overnight. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and
the possibility of a hurricane landfall in the Carolinas still
cannot be ruled out.

3. Efforts continue to provide the forecast models with as much
data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet flew the first in a series of
missions in the storm environment last night, and these missions
will continue today. The National Weather Service also continues to
launch extra balloon soundings.

4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's
track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal
flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern
states through the weekend.

5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as tonight.

6. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing
heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These
heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if
the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood
potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is
possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 23.4N 73.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 23.1N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 23.4N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 26.8N 74.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 32.5N 74.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 36.0N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 39.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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10-01-2015, 06:37 AM
Post: #30
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN



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