Gulf OF Mexico next week

[ROLLTIDE]

INVEST 99L

[ROLLTIDE]

Jeff Masters

Quote:

Tropical Storm Niala Approaching Hawaii; Heavy Rains for Gulf Coast Likely From 99L






By:
Jeff Masters

, 3:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2015












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A Tropical Storm Watch and a Flash Flood Watch are posted for Hawaii's Big Island, as Tropical Storm Niala
moves northwest at 8 mph on a course that will take it about 100 miles
south of the Big Island on Sunday evening. With tropical storm-force
winds expected to extend out up to 80 miles from the center at that
time, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in their 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast gave a 26% chance for South Point on the Big Island
to receive tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph. The bigger threat
from the storm will be heavy rain, which could bring 6 - 12" of rain and
dangerous flash floods to the Big Island on Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest image from the South Hawaii radar.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Niala.

Niala
is the record 7th named storm to form in 2015 in the North Central
Pacific (between 140°W and the Date Line.) According to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach,
prior to 2015, the previous record for named storms in the North
Central Pacific for an entire season was four, set in 1982. The other
named storms that formed in the North Central Pacific in 2015 were
Malia, Halola, Ela, Iune, Kilo and Loke. This year's record activity has
been due to unusually low wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures
caused by the strong El Niño event underway.

99L in Gulf of Mexico to bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast
A
trough of low pressure is moving northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan
Peninsula, and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of
Central America, as seen on satellite loops. On Saturday morning, NHC designated this area of interest Invest 99L.
By Sunday, this activity will push into the Gulf of Mexico, where
development into a tropical or subtropical depression could occur.
However, an upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of
Mexico will bring high wind shear to the Gulf, limiting the potential
for 99L to strengthen, and our top three models for predicting tropical
cyclone genesis are showing little development of this system. The
system will get pulled northwards to affect the U.S. coast from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle Sunday afternoon through Tuesday,
bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.

98L between Bermuda and the Bahamas of little concern
A non-tropical trough of low pressure (Invest 98L)
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the
western Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda
as the system drifts north to north-northwest at about 5 mph. With
record warm ocean temperatures near 30°C (86°F) and wind shear in the
moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, this disturbance may show some slow
development on Saturday and Sunday. However, wind shear is predicted to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, beginning on Sunday night. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 10%, respectively.

Little change to Ida
There is not much new to say about Tropical Depression Ida, which is wandering slowly over the Central Atlantic, well away from any land areas. Satellite images
on Saturday morning showed Ida's center of circulation was fully
exposed to view by high wind shear, and all of Ida's heavy thunderstorms
were limited to the east side of the center. Ida will continue to move
slowly in a region of weak steering currents for the next five days, and
it is possible that high wind shear will destroy the storm by Tuesday,
as suggested by Saturday morning runs of the GFS model.


Figure 3. MODIS image of Typhoon Dujuan as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Saturday, September 26. Image credit: NASA.

[ROLLTIDE]

8AM

Quote: 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

An area of low pressure over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and
an upper-level low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico
are producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development while this system moves
northward toward the northern Gulf Coast during the next
couple of days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States
during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today,
if necessary. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Joe-Nathan]

[ROLLTIDE]

recon canceled for today! Enjoy your rain FL

[ROLLTIDE]

Quote: An area of low pressure centered over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico, about 300 miles west of Key West, is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends from western
Cuba northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The circulation
associated with this system has become a little less well defined
since yesterday, and upper-level winds are not favorable for
significant development. The system is expected to move northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast over the next 24 to 36 hours, to the
east of a broader non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of whether or not the system becomes a
tropical cyclone, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
the southeastern United States during the next few days. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service and products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

8AM

[ROLLTIDE]

6 to 10 inches in Mobile AL from the upper level low I can't complain

[cajun saint]

Big flare up off Texas coast this morning with rotation, could something be forming tropical.

[Kelly_Jernigan]

(09-28-2015 09:01 AM)cajun saint Wrote:  Big flare up off Texas coast this morning with rotation, could something be forming tropical.

It's moving on to land, and it's got alot of dry air moving into it. SO... nope.

[ROLLTIDE]

2pm

Quote: 1. A weak area of low pressure centered over the east-central Gulf of
Mexico, about 200 miles west-southwest of Tampa, is associated with
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends
from western Cuba northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The
circulation associated with this system is less well defined
than it was yesterday, and strong upper-level winds should prevent
significant development. The system is expected to move north-
northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast over the next 24
hours, to the east of a broader non-tropical area of low pressure
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
low. Regardless of whether or not this disturbance becomes a
tropical cyclone, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
the southeastern United States during the next few days. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service and products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent