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Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
02-07-2014, 11:29 AM (This post was last modified: 02-07-2014 03:32 PM by raine1212.)
Post: #1
Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
Roll I started this thread.. I have been watching the models. Please remove if not needed. Or please help me with the updates, lol....

TIA
Raine

Long Term for me very iffy


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD COULD POSSIBLY BRING A PERIOD OF WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING OF A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK EASTWARD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
A HIGH SPREAD. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE FASTER SPREADING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. WE HAVE INCLUDED
POSSIBLE WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH SECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE MAY DIMINISH
THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CAE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

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02-09-2014, 05:30 PM
Post: #2
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
Looks like ice for me

Special Weather Statement just issued!

...INCREASING CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
242 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A WINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH BOTH SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.

AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN CSRA...WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A MIXTURE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...RANGING FROM SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND ICE PELLETS. THAT REGION WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING FROZEN PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESE SYSTEMS. THIS UNCERTAINTY INCLUDES THE TRACK OF THESE LOWS...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE EVENTS...AND EVEN WITH WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY FALL.

WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THESE EVENTS. PLEASE BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

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02-09-2014, 09:04 PM (This post was last modified: 02-09-2014 09:04 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #3
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
I am thinking about driving north for a snow chase tomorrow Smile Target city Tupelo, MS

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02-09-2014, 09:10 PM
Post: #4
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
Be careful, looks like a nasty storm with all the ice

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02-10-2014, 07:50 AM (This post was last modified: 02-10-2014 07:54 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #5
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
Lk Charles Update:





NORTH LA NWS:

[Image: image_full21.jpg]

[Image: image_full9.jpg]

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02-10-2014, 09:46 AM (This post was last modified: 02-10-2014 09:49 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #6
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
ICE PROBABILITIES:

[Image: day1_pice_gt_25.gif]

[Image: day2_pice_gt_25.gif]

[Image: day3_pice_gt_25.gif]

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2014


Quote:Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2014 - 12Z Wed Feb 12 2014

...The stage is set for a winter event to impact locations from Texas to
North Carolina early this week...

...Active weather out West will shift from northern California and the
Central Great Basin to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...

A cold front dropping through the Deep South is expected to stall out once
it reaches the Gulf Coast on Monday. Increasing amounts of moisture
surging out of the Gulf of Mexico should fuel an expanding area of
precipitation to the north of the boundary...eventually extending from
Texas all the way to the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic coasts.
Although precipitation totals should be light to moderate on
Monday...enough cold air in place to the north of the boundary will allow
for a swath of snow...sleet...and freezing rain within the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Also...more significant precipitation will be
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a piece of energy ejecting out of
the Southern Plains helps spin up a surface low along the stalled frontal
boundary. The deepening low will play a key role in the winter weather
potential along the Eastern Seaboard later this week...please refer to the
Extended Forecast Discussion (PMDEPD) and Heavy Snow Discussion (QPFHSD)
for more details.

After a few days of much needed precipitation over Northern California and
the Central Great Basin...the active weather out West will shift northward
into Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. A series of Pacific systems
moving inland will bring rounds of soaking rains into western Oregon and
Washington...with heavy snows expected in the higher elevations of the
Cascades and Northern Rockies. As energy from these Pacific systems
pushes eastward...light snows will be possible with an associated cold
front crossing the Dakotas and Upper Midwest late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.


Gerhardt

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php

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02-11-2014, 10:31 AM
Post: #7
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
[Image: image6.gif]

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02-11-2014, 11:10 PM
Post: #8
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
[Image: image_full6.gif]

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02-11-2014, 11:20 PM
Post: #9
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
[Image: goes-snow-20140211.jpg?1392153240]

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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02-11-2014, 11:41 PM
Post: #10
RE: Possible Snow Storm for the SouthEast 2/11 -2/13
Civil Weather message for the entire state of SC

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