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DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK
11-22-2013, 10:41 AM (This post was last modified: 11-22-2013 10:52 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #1
Wink DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM S. TX UP THRU EAST COAST THANKSGIVING WEEK.

Looks like a big chunk of Texas and northern LA will be covered in some form of frozen precip by Monday:

THIS IS A RARE EVENT FOR SO EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON. POTIENTUALLY EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ON RECORD FOR LA!

THE NAM IS BULLISH WITH SNOW ACCUM IN EAST TX/N LA ON MONDAY:

[Image: NAM_221_2013112212_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png]

THE GFS NOT SO, BUT STILL HAS A SMALL POCKET:


[Image: GFS_3_2013112206_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png]


Start post up what you local Mets and NWS is saying.

!


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

Quote:TXZ091-092-100-101-115-116-129-221800-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.131124T1200Z-131125T1800Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.ZR.Y.0001.131122T1000Z-131123T1700Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...CISCO...
EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN
352 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CST
SATURDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...NOW THROUGH 11AM SATURDAY FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SLEET
AND ICE ACCUMULATION.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...FREEZING RAIN ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 0.05
INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANT SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT ICING MAY IMPACT TRAVEL ON ELEVATED ROADS
AND BRIDGES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY MORE SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL ON ALL AREA
ROADS AND BRIDGES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
LATER THIS WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. SLOW DOWN AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE
FIRST PLACES THAT ICY SPOTS WILL DEVELOP.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

&&

$$

TXZ093>095-102>107-117>120-130>133-141>144-156-157-221800-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.131124T1200Z-131125T1800Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PARKER-
TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-
MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...
DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE
352 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT... SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL ON ALL AREA ROADS AND BRIDGES AND
DISRUPT AIR TRAVEL INTO MONDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

&&

$$

DUNN

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11-22-2013, 11:31 AM
Post: #2
RE: DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK



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11-25-2013, 08:17 AM (This post was last modified: 11-25-2013 08:18 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #3
RE: DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK
THINGS ARE A-CHANGING:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 AM CST MON NOV 25 2013
Quote:THE CONCERN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES AS WE HAVE BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY MIX LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THICKNESS VALUES BETWEEN THE
850-700 MB LAYER REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE BETWEEN 1545-1555
METERS. HOWEVER...THE 1000MB-850MB THICKNESS IS A MUCH BETTER
INDICATOR FOR WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THESE PARTS AND IT DOES
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN IF WE CAN GET THE TEMPERATURES AROUND 30-32
DEGREES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET THERE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE BEST PROBABILITY IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A KIRBYVILLE TEXAS...TO VILLE PLATTE LINE. THIS AREA DOES
REMAIN IN QUESTION AND THEREFORE WE WILL BE TAKING ANOTHER PEEK
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE LOOK AT ANOTHER MODEL RUN. THE SOUNDING
FORECAST PROFILE WILL PROBABLY STILL SHOW THAT THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ABOVE AND ONLY A SMALL 0 DEGREE LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE. THAT IS WHY I`M LEANING TOWARD JUST A COLD RAIN...OR IF
DEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR...MAYBE LOW PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS 48HR:

[Image: GFS_3_2013112506_F48_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png]

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11-25-2013, 10:01 AM
Post: #4
RE: DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK
!

HPC ICE ACCUM FORECAST:

TUES 12Z:

[Image: prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013112512f024.gif]

WED 12Z:

[Image: prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013112512f048.gif]


HPC SNOW ACCUM

12Z TUES:

[Image: prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013112512f048.gif]


12Z WED:

[Image: prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013112512f054.gif]

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11-25-2013, 11:43 AM
Post: #5
RE: DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK
!

STORM REPORTS:

[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
942 AM CST MON NOV 25 2013

[/font]
Quote:[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier].TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.


..REMARKS..

0915 AM FREEZING RAIN 5 N SHONGALOO 33.01N 93.29W
11/25/2013 E0.10 INCH WEBSTER LA PUBLIC

FREEZING RAIN WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM

[/font]
[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]0909 AM FREEZING RAIN HOPE 33.67N 93.59W
11/25/2013 E0.10 INCH HEMPSTEAD AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SLIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES IN COUNTY

[/font]
[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]0904 AM FREEZING RAIN PRESCOTT 33.80N 93.39W
11/25/2013 E0.10 INCH NEVADA AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

ICE ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGE IN TOWN

[/font]
[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]0853 AM FREEZING RAIN NEW BOSTON 33.46N 94.42W
11/25/2013 E0.10 INCH BOWIE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIGHT ICE ON BRIDGES OVERPASSES IN BOWIE COUNTY

[/font][font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]0830 AM FREEZING RAIN 5 E BENTON 32.69N 93.65W
11/25/2013 E0.05 INCH BOSSIER LA CO-OP OBSERVER

SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE OBSERVED

[/font][font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]0829 AM FREEZING RAIN LEWISVILLE 33.36N 93.58W
11/25/2013 E0.06 INCH LAFAYETTE AR CO-OP OBSERVER

ICE ON OBJECTS IN YARD

[/font][font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]0823 AM FREEZING RAIN 4 N BERNICE 32.89N 92.66W
11/25/2013 E0.06 INCH UNION LA PUBLIC

LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION ON SHRUBS AND PINES IN LILLIE...
LA

[/font][font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]0818 AM FREEZING RAIN 1 N HOMER 32.81N 93.06W
11/25/2013 E0.06 INCH CLAIBORNE LA CO-OP OBSERVER

ICE ACCUMULATING IN PINE TREES [/font]

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11-26-2013, 08:26 AM (This post was last modified: 11-26-2013 08:29 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #6
RE: DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK
!

NOW THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A SWITCH OVER TO MIX PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL LA AND MISS AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT!


12Z WED HPC:

[Image: prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013112612f024.gif]


NOW THE GFS IS SHOWING SNOW IN THE NORTH HOUSTON SUBURBS:


[Image: GFS_3_2013112606_F27_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png]



AND THERE IS SOME DISCO TO SUPPORT THIS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
555 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013
Quote:DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SINCE EARLY MONDAY IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND APPROACHING THE HILL
COUNTRY THIS MORNING. OF GREATEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AS
THE LOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO THE REGION. A 09Z
SOUNDING FROM COLLEGE STATION SHOWS A WARM NOSE AT 800MB WITH A
WARM LAYER OF APPROXIMATELY 3KFT. BELOW THIS LAYER TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR 3KFT BEFORE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
AGAIN IN THE LAST 800 FEET. THIS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST
REASONING WHICH IS FOR RAIN WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SLEET
MIXED IN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN AS RAIN. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WE COULD BRIEFLY
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO
OCCUR BEFORE THE MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST AND PRECIPITATION
ENDS ACROSS THE REGION.

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11-27-2013, 07:46 AM
Post: #7
RE: DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK



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11-27-2013, 09:48 AM
Post: #8
RE: DEEP SOUTH SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK
The storm system brought us a squall line with three sets of lightning flashes and one burst of heavy rain. The height of the line may or may not have caused two brief power outages, as the power went out for 30 minutes at 3 am and it was only drizzling then. Nice to have a thunderstorm, as there have been none since September during an otherwise very dry period.

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